Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Thursday’s Surf – More wind…wow imagine that

Thursday will be another windy day…it will be surfable at the protected spots but the exposed breaks are going to be pretty bumpy.

We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some minor background SW swell on Thursday.

The NW facing spots will have consistent shoulder-overhead+ surf but with sloppy/poor shape thanks to the short-period nature of the swell…oh that and the onshore NW winds that will be blowing near 25+ knots…yeah those are going to suck.

SW facing spots will be working off mostly the SW swell…which will be much smaller, mostly knee-chest high at the average spots. Standout SW breaks in Santa Cruz and the Central Coast will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the lower tides. Expect longer waits between waves on the lower tide…and a near swamp out once the high tide fills in.

If you can try and surf the protected spots…the winds will be just a bit too strong at the exposed breaks to make it worth paddling out.

Things do get better on Friday…South winds are expected to pick up, so look for cleaner conditions at many of the more exposed spots (like many in SF). Check back tomorrow for more info.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Wednesday's windswell - isn't it summer, what is with all the wind?

Wednesday isn't looking all that surfable for most spots...Santa Cruz (and protected Central Coast spots) will be cleaner and should have some small but rideable SW energy keeping it from going totally flat.

Most of our surf on Wednesday will be steep NW windswell...the SW facing spots and a few of the combo areas will have a new, but small, SW swell (200-220) sending in some inconsistent sets.

NW facing spots can expect more shoulder-overhead windswell waves with generally poor stacked up shape. You might be able to find a semi-rideable peak on a really good (and semi-protected) sandbar if you are lucky but overall it won't be worth driving very far to check it.

SW facing spots will be working off a mix of mostly leftovers and weak new SW swell. Those breaks will be mostly in the waist-chest high range but I expect a few slightly bigger sets to sneak through on the tide push. Again it won't be worth driving very far to get waves but if you live close enough and don't mind the smaller surf you might want to take a look at it.

Check out the wind forecast for Wednesday morning (8am)

As you can see it starts off pretty breezy...and you can bet it won't get any cleaner as we head into the afternoon. Definitely limit your surf checks to spots with at least some protection from the NW'erly winds.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Tuesday's Surf - Winds, Windswell, and watching stuff burn

Tuesday will be a surf day at the protected areas...but in general it looks a bit bumpy/sloppy as the onshore winds increase out of the NW.

We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some fading SW energy. Most NW facing spots will see sloppy overhead+ surf...very windswelly stacked up shape and mostly blown out conditions through the day. The one exception to this will be the more exposed areas in the Central California/Santa Cruz areas...winds are forecast to be a little lighter so you might be able to pick off some of the windswell mix early in the morning before the bump gets bad.

SW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some rare chest-high+ sets on the tide push.

Personally I would try and stick to the springtime spots on Tuesday...breaks that can handle the NW winds, still pull in a little windswell, and will have a chance to mix in a touch of SW energy. There aren't a ton of them out there but if you hunt around (or already know where they are) then you have a shot at getting some, at least, rideable waves.

Those fires up that way have been crazy...hope you guys have been able to avoid the blazes.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Vacation and Long-Range Surf Forecast

Hey gang I just wanted to give you a heads of my best friends is being deployed to Iraq (he flies a Blackhawk for the Army), so I am finally going to take a couple of days off to hang out (and throw a party naturally) with him before he ships out.

So I am posting a long-range surf forecast for Northern California the next few days...If my liver is still working at the end of this weekend I should be back and have an update for Monday's forecast. See you then!

Here is the forecast...there are not a lot of changes over the next few days...just plenty of SW swell (and local windswell)

Thursday through Sunday are going to be some pretty decent surf days. Good weather will combine with weaker winds and open up more surfing options for the next few days.

In the water we will have a mix of SW swells (200-220) and some backing down WNW windswell. Most NW facing spots will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW breaks see some bigger sets on the tide push.
SW facing spots see a new SW swell hold into Thursday with chest-shoulder high+ surf at the average breaks. Standouts will have some head high and overhead sets. Friday will have another round of SW energy arrive and help to reinforce the swell from earlier in the week. Wave heights will remain similar in the chest-head high+ range for the best spots. Those waves will hold into Saturday before slowly fading through Sunday.

Winds look good over the next few days. Forecasts are calling for mostly light NW flow as high-pressure builds over the region. Look for NW flow around 5-10 knots for most of the North and Central Coasts during the mornings for the next few days. Afternoon winds stay lighter as well and only top out close to 15+ knots during the later parts of the day.

Summer spots will still be the most fun over the next few days but the combo breaks, particularly the combo beach breaks, will have some decent surf potential during the mornings. I would try and stick with the more protected breaks during the afternoons.

Anyway hope this gets you through the next few days...have a great weekend! (Ha I am on Vacation!)

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Wednesday’s Surf – A little cleaner but still on the fugly side

Wednesday will be a surf day at spots protected from the WNW winds.

We will have a solid mix of NW windswell and some peaking SW swell (190-220). Most exposed breaks will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf. Standout combo breaks that can really focus the mix of swells will have consistent head high and overhead sets. Best shape will be on the lower tides during the first half of the day.

Winds will start off on the light side…mostly W around 5-10 knots with the cleanest conditions in the Monterey/Santa Cruz area. W winds 15-25 knots move in during the afternoon.

SW facing spots in Santa Cruz, the North Bay, and at select areas along the Central Coast will be the best call tomorrow…they will have some protection from the W-NW winds, plenty of energy, and will likely have cleaner more surfable shape thanks to the longer SW swell periods. NW facing spots will be rideable early but the mix of shorter-periods and increasing winds will hamper shape by midmorning.

Monday, June 16, 2008

Tuesday's Surf - More freaking wind

Tuesday is not looking like much of a surf day.

There may be a small window for NW facing spots early in the morning but onshore winds will tear it up for most breaks by the afternoon.

SW facing spots in Santa Cruz (and at other select areas along the Central Coast) will be the exception...they will be somewhat sheltered from the stronger NW winds and will continue to see healthy (if somewhat inconsistent) SW swell (200-225).

Most SW facing spots will see surf in the shoulder-head high range on sets while the standout SW breaks see some overhead sets mixing in on the lower tides.

NW facing spots will pull in a mix of sloppy short-period NW windswell. Most of those areas will see consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in at times as well. Shape will generally be poor thanks to the mix of jumbled up windswell and increasing onshore winds.

Your best bet is going to be the summer spots...but it probably won't be worth driving very far to get to one unless you are desperate for some semi-clean surf. Even the SW facing spots will get some wind on it by the afternoon so try and surf early enough to avoid the worst of the bump.

Finally here is a look at the CDIP swell models for the region…tomorrow will look very similar to what we are seeing today. It is worth noting though the Southern Hemi swell direction is really 200-220 (rather than 175)…for some reason CDIP has a tendency to average out the direction or get a bad data source and it gives an incorrect reading.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Waves for the Weekend - Look there is even more SW swell!

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days...particularly Saturday and into Sunday morning.

Saturday is going to see a mix of steady SW swell (190-220) and steep NW windswell. Most spots will continue to see chest-shoulder high surf while the standouts (both NW and SW) see shoulder-head high+ waves.

Sunday there will actually be another SW pulse (200-220) joining the mix, overlapping the existing SW swell, all of which will blend with the steady NW windswell. Sunday expect a touch more size as the average exposed breaks build into chest-head high surf and the standout NW and SW facing breaks move back into the consistent head high and overhead ranges.

Weather/Wind looks a bit better on Saturday. There will be some light S winds and dense fog on tap through the morning and then only moderate onshore winds through the afternoon.

Sunday will have building NW winds arriving early in the day and then eventually strengthening to 20-25 knots by the afternoon.

Saturday I think you will be able to pick what sort of spot you want to surf...though you will probably find the best shape at the SW facing spots and good combo breaks. Sunday I would probably plan on sticking with the summer SW spots since the NW winds will be increasing. The more protected areas will have a longer surf window, particularly if you can move to the inside sections as the winds increasing through the afternoon. Looks like Santa Cruz may be the call on Sunday (probably Monday too).

Have a great weekend and an excellent Father's Day!

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Friday (the 13th)’s surf – clean and playful

Looks like the ocean is going to give us a bit of a break on Friday…conditions and swell are going to clean up and in general it looks like Friday is going to be a surf day.

In the water we are going to have a mix of backing of WNW short-period energy and a quickly fading SW swell.

Most NW exposed breaks will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high sets coming through on the low tides.

SW facing spots will have similar waist-chest high surf fairly consistently with a few shoulder high sets sneaking through at the standouts.

Conditions look much cleaner with light and variable S winds in the morning and only moderate W winds 10-15 knots pushing through by the afternoon.

While it won’t be pumping tomorrow it should be plenty of fun particularly on the low tide (and at spots that can pull in the mix of swells). Cleanest conditions will be in the morning so you might even think about penciling in a dawn patrol if you live close enough to a decent break.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Wednesday's Surf - More SW swell and spring winds

Wednesday is looking a bit breezy but it will still be surfable at spots protected from the NW winds.

In the water we are going to see a mix of steep NW windswell and steady SW swell (200-220). Most spots will continue to see shoulder-overhead surf off the sloppier short-period NW swell. Summer spots will be close on sizes…but a little less consistent. Expect SW facing breaks to have waves in the chest-shoulder high range with sets hitting the head high and overhead range on the better tides.

Winds are forecast to start off out of the NW in the 10-20 knot range for the morning and then eventually top out close to 30+ knots by the afternoon.

Personally I would stick to the SW spots (if you have a choice)…and again I think there will be enough swell in the water to make it worth driving a little ways if you have to get on the road to find a cleaner break.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Tuesday's Surf - Getting funky now

Tuesday will be a surf day for SW facing spots (mainly in Santa Cruz)...NW facing spots see consistent windswell but with increasingly poor conditions as the NW winds build in through the afternoon.

SW swell peaks on Tuesday with plenty of waves in the chest-head high range for the average exposed breaks. Standout summer spots will have sets going a couple of feet overhead on the tide push. Good combo spots will also have overhead waves off the mix of swells but may have wind issues as well if they are too exposed.

Look for WNW winds 10-15+ knots to build in through the morning and NW flow to top out near 25+ knots by the afternoon.

I would plan on surfing a SW facing spot on Tuesday...there is a lot of energy, plenty of waves, and you will have some protection from the wind. There is even enough size that, if you have the time, it would be worth driving to score at a summer spot.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Weekend Surf - Looking a bit breezy

WNW winds continue to blow in the 15-30 knot range as we move through the weekend. In general surf looks on the poor side for most of the exposed spots (with some rare pockets possibly slipping during the early mornings).
SW spots will do better since they have a building SW swell and a bit more protection from the winds. Look for the average SW spots to see surf in the waist-chest high range while the standout SW spots will have some shoulder high+ sets on the tide-push.

I think that the summer spots in Santa Cruz, and maybe up in the North Bay, will be your best call this weekend. In general it won't be great even at those protected breaks...there will be a lot of wind in the outer waters, with some texture and bump making it to the beach in most areas. If you have to surf try and schedule it around the tide swing aiming to paddle out somewhere between the low tide trough and the peak of the high tide.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Friday’s Surf – More wind…but with some waves mixed in as well

Friday won’t be much of a surf day for most areas…but there may be a few rideable waves for the morning at the NW facing spots. The summer breaks in Santa Cruz should be rideable (but on the small side) for most of the day.

We will have a mix of strong but steep NW windswell and a slowly building SW swell. Most spots will have shoulder-head high surf from the windswell…but shape will be on the poor side thanks to the stacked up and sort of gutless nature of the swell.

Summer spots will be around knee-chest high on the morning tide push and should see some shoulder high sets sneaking through at times during the afternoon. Sets will be inconsistent but worth the wait if the spot isn’t too crowded.

Personally it doesn’t look like surf will be all that great tomorrow…the winds are going to howl during the afternoon (and should be blowing NW around 10-12 knots pretty much from sunup through mid-morning). If you have to surf I would try and get on it early, stick to the more protected spots, and keep an open mind. If you are lucky enough to have a SW facing spot nearby...then plan on getting your cleanest waves at those breaks.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Thursday's craptacular - yeah it looks pretty sucky again

Thursday will be blown out and mostly unsurfable.

Lots of WNW-NW wind on tap again on Thursday...WNW winds will hold around 15-30 knots for most of the NW facing breaks, particularly the more open beach breaks around San Fran and spots to the north...actually the central coast looks pretty bad too...basically only the Monterey Bay area will see lighter winds and even those will still be around 10-15 knots for most of the day.

Needless to say that unless you want to surf super small longboard waves waaaaay on the inside of some really protected point in Santa Cruz then you might want to hold off trying to surf on Thursday.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Wednesday’s Slop – Getting Funky Now

Wednesday will really NOT be a surf day. Onshore winds are going to turkey stomp conditions and it looks like even the most protected breaks are going to have issues.

Surf will be up but it will be almost completely windswell. Look for shoulder-overhead sizes but with really poor shape thanks to the steady onshore winds.

Look for W winds 15-25 knots through the morning along with some drizzle and patchy fog to make it even more appealing.

There may be some semi-rideable (and I use the term loosely) waves at the super-protected spots waaaaaay on the inside of some of the points in Monterey/Santa Cruz…but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Basically I wouldn’t plan on surfing even those spots unless you live right next to them (walking distance)…though if you lived that close you probably don’t care about surf forecasts that much.

Conditions do clean up later this week…there is chance at some better waves this weekend. Make sure to check back for updates.

Monday, June 2, 2008

Tuesday's Surf - Looking a bit bumpy

It doesn't look like Tuesday is going to be much of a surf day. There will be some semi-rideable waves through Santa Cruz but most of the other regions will have wind issues throughout the day.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of NW windswell and background S-SW energy. Most NW facing breaks will have chest-shoulder high waves but with generally poor shape due to the short-period nature of the swell and texture from the onshore wind.
SW facing breaks will be on the small side with knee to maybe waist high waves on the bigger sets.

Winds will be onshore out of the NW around 10-12 knots through the morning (though Monterey Bay sees light and variable winds early). Look for onshore flow around 10-20 knots out of the NW by the afternoon.

If you live close to the beach I wouldn't totally rule out a quick driveby...or at least a camera check...but I definitely wouldn't waste a lot of gas trying to find waves.