tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50787403248237833092024-03-21T20:04:30.987-07:00Northern California Surf Forecast<b>Because you should be able to understand your Surf Forecast...</b> A simple, straightforward, easy-to-use, surf forecast for Northern California by Adam Wright, professional Surf ForecasterAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.comBlogger94125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-42221294425313154022010-11-19T14:42:00.000-08:002010-11-19T14:43:01.623-08:00Where did the forecast go?Hey guys…I know most of you already know where to find the forecasts now that they are over on Solspot.com…our new, much more powerful site.<br /><br />But just in case some of you new visitors googled in…I wanted to make sure that you can find all of the new cool stuff. This blog isn’t updating the forecast anymore, all of that has been pushed over to the new site. Here are a few of the links that will hopefully help you find some waves (and hopefully good conditions too.)<br /><br />For those of you that just wanted the forecast without any of the bells and whistles…The same ol’ Socal Forecast can be found here (this is the normal forecast for all of Southern California and generally gives you all the info you need to find surf for the next day)<br /><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/content/category/short-range-forecast">http://surf.solspot.com/content/category/short-range-forecast</a><br /><br />Here is the link to my long-range forecasts where you can find all the details you need to plan your surf sessions for the next several days, and some even longer range outlooks that can give you a heads up on incoming swells.<br /><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/content/category/long-range-forecast">http://surf.solspot.com/content/category/long-range-forecast</a><br /><br />Since the Southern California coastline is all jacked up (uh I mean unique)…we took the forecast and broke it down into a bunch of different “zones” that help to show how much swell, what sort of wind, and how the tides are going to affect the different regions.<br /><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/activity/surf/sub-region/index.php?id=8" target="_blank">Santa Barbara</a><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/activity/surf/sub-region/index.php?id=7" target="_blank">Ventura</a><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/activity/surf/sub-region/index.php?id=6" target="_blank">North LA</a><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/activity/surf/sub-region/index.php?id=5" target="_blank">the South Bay</a><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/activity/surf/sub-region/index.php?id=4" target="_blank">North Orange County</a><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/activity/surf/sub-region/index.php?id=3" target="_blank">South Orange County</a><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/activity/surf/sub-region/index.php?id=2" target="_blank">North San Diego</a><br /><a href="http://surf.solspot.com/activity/surf/sub-region/index.php?id=1" target="_blank">South San Diego</a><br /><br />If that wasn’t enough we even put together a pretty comprehensive list of the surf breaks and beaches in each region. These aren’t surf reports, but they give very specific weather, wind, tides, water-quality, and a bunch of other cool stuff. When you first drop onto a spot page you will see “Current or Live” information, but if you click around you can find all kinds of cool stuff (like hour-by-hour wind forecasts going out for a full week…just the thing you need to plan a midday session if the winds lay down.) Check em out when you get a chance…<br /><br /><b>Santa Barbara County Spots</b><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="">Gaviota State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" quemada="">Arroyo Quemada</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Refugio State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">El Capitan State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Haskells Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Summerland Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Goleta Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Butterfly Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" creek="">East Beach at Sycamore Creek</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Hammonds Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Hope Ranch Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" creek="">East Beach at Mission Creek</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" point="">Sands at Coal Oil Point</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Arroyo Burro Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Leadbetter Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Carpinteria City Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Carpinteria State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Rincon Beach</a><br /><br /><b>Ventura County Spots</b><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">La Conchita Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Mussel Shoals Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Oil Piers Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" park="">Hobson County Park</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" faria="">Faria</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Solimar Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Emma Wood State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" street="">C-street</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">San Buenaventura Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" jetty="">Ventura Harbor South Jetty</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" knoll="">Surfers Knoll</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">McGrath State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" park="">Oxnard Beach Park</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" sea="">Hollywood by the Sea</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" silverstrand="">Silverstrand</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" park="">Port Hueneme Beach Park</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Point Mugu Beach</a><br /><br /><b>North Los Angeles County Spots</b><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">County Line Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Leo Carrillo Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Will Rogers State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Topanga State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" malibu="">Malibu</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Santa Monica Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" pier="">Paradise Cove Pier</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Zuma Beach</a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>South Los Angeles County Spots</b><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Venice City Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" dockweiler="">Dockweiler</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" porto="">El Porto</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" pier="">Manhattan Beach Pier</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Hermosa Redondo Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" haggertys="">Haggertys</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" bay="">Lunada Bay</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" verdes="">Rancho Palos Verdes</a><br /><br /><b>North Orange County Spots</b><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Seal Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" pier="">Seal Beach Pier</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Surfside Sunset Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Bolsa Chica State<br />Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" cliffs="">Huntington Cliffs</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Huntington City Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Huntington State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" mouth="">Santa Ana River Mouth</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Upper Jetties Newport<br />Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" blackies="">Newport Pier Blackies</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">15th Street Newport Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" wedge="">Wedge</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Corona del Mar Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Laguna Beach Crescent Bay Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Laguna Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="">Aliso Creek Beach South Laguna</a><br /><br /><b>South Orange County Spots</b><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Salt Creek Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Dana Point Harbor Baby Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Doheny Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">Capistrano Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" clemente="">T Street San Clemente</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" county="" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="">San Clemente State Beach</a><br /><br /><b>North San Diego Spots</b><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" church="" diego="">Church</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="">Trestles</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" onofre="">San Onofre State Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" onofre="">Old Mans San Onofre</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" jetty="" diego="">Trails San Onofre</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" way="">Oceanside Surfrider Way</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" oceanside="">Cassidy Street Oceanside</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" carlsbad="">Tamarack Av Carlsbad</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" carlsbad="">Ponto Carlsbad</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" leucadia="">Beacons Beach Leucadia</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" encinitas="">Moonlight Beach Encinitas</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" encinitas="">Swamis Beach Encinitas</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" elijo="">Cardiff State Beach San Elijo</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" park="" diego="">Seaside State Park</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="" diego="">Del Mar San Dieguito River Beach</a><br /><br /><br /><b>South San Diego Spots</b><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="" diego="">Blacks Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" shores="">La Jolla Shores</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="" diego="">Windansea Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="" tourmaline="">Pacific Beach Tourmaline</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="" diego="">Mission Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" diego="">Ocean Beach </a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" cliffs="" diego="">Sunset Cliffs</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="" diego="">Coronado Beach</a><br /><a href="http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=9188177714352932222" target="_blank" california="" pacific="" weather="" com="" beach="" diego="">Imperial Beach</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-3209943344352667702009-12-03T14:27:00.001-08:002009-12-03T14:27:53.659-08:00Storm and Swell Alert – North Pacific is looking to get NastySo I have been looking at the forecast charts and the swell models for the last few days (well lets not kid anyone…my near OCD has me looking at the charts all the time…and once I find a way I will probably have it fed directly into my brain). So like I said, I have been looking at the charts and there, right at the end of the forecast run, was this ugly mutant of a storm. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzDUlb3xwhAHDzXtkKxLw1EEARZuBRK-VZB-0LEi-qReBQJZAh9fHh4yBk_GPgwonPgrAT5cYCkbQPUVJ5mA0uUlTTW4xbR_scyfTOSorYBKLa3WZdji7kcIUyAFK5QjDfg5feQWH1tc8/s1600-h/Mutie_storm.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 347px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzDUlb3xwhAHDzXtkKxLw1EEARZuBRK-VZB-0LEi-qReBQJZAh9fHh4yBk_GPgwonPgrAT5cYCkbQPUVJ5mA0uUlTTW4xbR_scyfTOSorYBKLa3WZdji7kcIUyAFK5QjDfg5feQWH1tc8/s400/Mutie_storm.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410802881396311602" /></a><br /><br />Usually I don’t put a ton of faith in the weather models when we move waaaaaaay out into the forecast run, they have a tendency to overcall things, and the timing is rarely ever correct…but in this case this storm definitely caught my eye. <br /><br />Now, a couple of days later, the storm is still there on the charts and the swell models are still calling for it to crank out a LOT of swell…particularly for Hawaii (and the really, really unlucky people that live in the Aleutian Islands.) There is also a pretty large hunk of WNW swell that is supposed to head over to California, hitting NorCal pretty hard and throwing some large surf into Socal as well.<br /><br />I am still a little “iffy” on the storm’s intensity and timing since it is not forecast to develop for another 4-5 days, which, for me, is still in the marginal area of the forecast run. Personally I would like to have the storm get a couple of days closer to developing before we start ringing alarm bells. <br /><br />OK, that being said, lets look at what we can expect if this storm lives up to the current forecast. <br /><br /><b>- WEATHER NERD WARNING –</b><br /> <br />The storm itself is part of what is called a “complex low-pressure”, which basically means that it is a series of fronts and low-pressure centers that are all mixing together in one big mess. Usually with these complex lows you have an “anchor” low-pressure that sits up in the higher-latitudes and a series of intense storms that push through the mid-upper latitudes like they are riding some crazy merry-go-round. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjN32FC9b0nBdfy8KgLr8BKOQRLYFtI_GIF2MbASRfHbaNurDkEtG86Ba9ZYuv1jks4N-GIPA49cKBWlCLK8IZSF2ur6YpkBMyrNoZVByUTOlT20wKjTtSwsvpBmeCdKTZR-Q00F0x40Ic/s1600-h/Complex_low.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 314px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjN32FC9b0nBdfy8KgLr8BKOQRLYFtI_GIF2MbASRfHbaNurDkEtG86Ba9ZYuv1jks4N-GIPA49cKBWlCLK8IZSF2ur6YpkBMyrNoZVByUTOlT20wKjTtSwsvpBmeCdKTZR-Q00F0x40Ic/s400/Complex_low.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410802705030675586" /></a><br /><br />In this case the anchor low is currently developing, and will likely move into place over the upcoming weekend…and even though it is the leading element of the bigger system it will be sending out waves as well (that will arrive a few days earlier than the larger system). <br /><br />The most intense part of this complex low is when everything sort of collapses into one big low-pressure…which happens in about 4-5 days. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS8kJejeJ04issLJBLU7_4K24qsQ74a6VpKzJ_J8ivEtr-7QY5uoMLYbf3kJf4nqxjbw2wwHlzu_pmUPiYgpoH0SQVFa3QjA74q2aOeWfQ3oLznYKkIDDawtqsEIkfFEjg0eQUKtxvcyI/s1600-h/GFS_full_12.06_FNMOC.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 314px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS8kJejeJ04issLJBLU7_4K24qsQ74a6VpKzJ_J8ivEtr-7QY5uoMLYbf3kJf4nqxjbw2wwHlzu_pmUPiYgpoH0SQVFa3QjA74q2aOeWfQ3oLznYKkIDDawtqsEIkfFEjg0eQUKtxvcyI/s400/GFS_full_12.06_FNMOC.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410802694653111186" /></a><br /><br />The current GFS pressure model is calling for the low pressure to drop to something close to 952mb, (which if this was a tropical storm/hurricane it would be something close to a category 3 system…which is why the Holy Crap is on that chart). As a frontal storm it means that winds will be close to 50-60+ knots near the core of the low. With those sort of winds, and all the pre-existing sea-state that gets kicked up by the preceding fronts, we can expect the storm to produce something that looks like this…and yes those are 40-foot+ seas. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB3QVPmfy68SJxJwpxzFOJ6-794brfXf1yYILSYBKV3oDYhklPhWEMffDB44Q9AMaLSk4kUqYhG8Z2Jkzvm0h9CC8wGjktZNhulFFFRXU9HdURqKxKSP7nn0VDOB4W_8LMSzobbBeIyY8/s1600-h/Sea-state_wwIII_FNMOC.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 314px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB3QVPmfy68SJxJwpxzFOJ6-794brfXf1yYILSYBKV3oDYhklPhWEMffDB44Q9AMaLSk4kUqYhG8Z2Jkzvm0h9CC8wGjktZNhulFFFRXU9HdURqKxKSP7nn0VDOB4W_8LMSzobbBeIyY8/s400/Sea-state_wwIII_FNMOC.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410802692210452258" /></a><br /><br />Needless to say that even if the top 10-15-feet of that is just storm fluff there will still be a pretty significant swell forming from this storm. <br /><br /><b>END WEATHER NERD SECTION</b><br /><br />Surfwise…<b>Hawaii is forecast to receive the largest chunk of energy</b>…likely something in the range of 18-20 feet of deepwater energy at 17-20 seconds, which can translate to 30-40-foot faces as it hits some of the Hawaiian reefs. The swell is pretty NW’erly in swell angle, which is good for spots like Jaws (Peahi). It looks like this swell will come up fast late on Dec 6th with the peak of the swell hitting overnight into Dec 7th. One thing that could suck is the winds…the trailing part of the storm’s front could show around the same time setting up W-NW winds which doesn’t do the north shores of any islands and good. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheDQrLR8qt4EpOURRn0_to38exQptKUwlz7dFO1FUH4SUdO0EL45f68_y_xPEMtyWnCYJ84JHxhr3jYfgCYPxJSZQhUneKtBiy3P-jKDmABnR0pSg0WmvPysPRSVUFJOhhoMAFzhyphenhyphenZaVo/s1600-h/Hawaii_weather.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 344px; height: 215px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheDQrLR8qt4EpOURRn0_to38exQptKUwlz7dFO1FUH4SUdO0EL45f68_y_xPEMtyWnCYJ84JHxhr3jYfgCYPxJSZQhUneKtBiy3P-jKDmABnR0pSg0WmvPysPRSVUFJOhhoMAFzhyphenhyphenZaVo/s400/Hawaii_weather.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410802688278335202" /></a><br /><br /><b>Northern and Central California</b> will see a smaller but still impressive amount of energy that will hit North of Point Conception…something like 15-16 feet of deepwater swell at 18-20 seconds. This will show some energy late on Dec 8th but will likely peak throughout the day on 9th…the angle will be pretty WNW’erly (275-295) which means that it will hit a lot more spots with more energy than the NW swells usually do.<br /><br /><b>Southern California</b> is forecast to see this swell showing some long-period energy, particularly at the more northerly counties of Santa Barbara and Ventura, by the afternoon on the 9th. The peak of the swell will hit throughout the day on the 10th. The WNW angle works better for Socal as well (280-300), so there will be less shadowing. At this point the swell looks good for easy head high to overhead surf at the average spots, and the top spots going several feet overhead. The best San Diego spots could see more consistent double-overhead+ sets. <br /><br />Unfortunately weather looks like it will be an issue for all of California as well…a smaller cold front is forecast to bring onshore wind and rain about the same time as the swell peaks…hopefully this part of the forecast won’t be correct.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiExydhc31d7i3rpgUtuiiH90Cv6Zl3Xr3lG3jO_HUxEZlQT70nJEKvGmaot-yM2I8VhykWY8Dz7489yRgcSSQ2WBEVpFhM4_YcCHaXF820HLsjaj2FSB78NpPmrbAF4zOuK0QdZVlr-wc/s1600-h/GFS_SAT-10_SLP_FNMOC.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 339px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiExydhc31d7i3rpgUtuiiH90Cv6Zl3Xr3lG3jO_HUxEZlQT70nJEKvGmaot-yM2I8VhykWY8Dz7489yRgcSSQ2WBEVpFhM4_YcCHaXF820HLsjaj2FSB78NpPmrbAF4zOuK0QdZVlr-wc/s400/GFS_SAT-10_SLP_FNMOC.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5410802679298282706" /></a><br /><br />So that is all I have for now…keep in mind that this is pure forecast at this point…I will definitely keep you guys posted as the storm actually develops. Cross your fingers that it lives up to the forecast hype.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-36405972248700808282009-11-25T13:44:00.000-08:002009-11-25T13:45:18.329-08:00Swell Alert – Good sized W-WNW heading to the West CoastA strong new W-WNW swell will start moving into the California Coast late tonight, hitting the Northern and Central California regions well after sundown and eventually peaking in those regions on Thanksgiving. <br /><br />Southern California will start to see some WNW-NW (280-300) long-period energy (18-20 seconds) later Thursday afternoon…eventually peaking throughout the day on Friday and holding into the weekend. <br /><br />Like most of the intense storms we have seen so far this season this latest system is another mix of extra-tropical moisture from near Japan and a colder, higher-latitude, cold-front moving off of Siberia and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The rapid cooling of the warm-moist air-mass is helping to fuel the storm’s intensity, which has been pretty impressive…40-50+ knots of wind and 30-35 foot seas have been recorded (not just forecasted) in the key areas of fetch. Check out the latest JASON-1 satellite data…you can find this same stuff over on the http://www.stormsurf.com website…and as usual a bit thanks to Mark Sponsler for letting me poach a couple of charts now and then. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNJT4AOx3y9lEai3ktFxKFMDVVGVk0KwI46aKOPMphgaUZ3MuE9Q4v3_SC_BzkdibSUr8V9YC1eSjq5GLej0mpBuWP7k56SLf9YkiYj51wszwI2FJR6Ug36dVvj8ioYIkuPNonuMYpTXQ/s1600/Jason_1_data_Stormsurf.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 316px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNJT4AOx3y9lEai3ktFxKFMDVVGVk0KwI46aKOPMphgaUZ3MuE9Q4v3_SC_BzkdibSUr8V9YC1eSjq5GLej0mpBuWP7k56SLf9YkiYj51wszwI2FJR6Ug36dVvj8ioYIkuPNonuMYpTXQ/s400/Jason_1_data_Stormsurf.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159472129477602" /></a><br /><br />And here is the equally impressive WavewatchIII forecast chart…as you can see the two are pretty matched up. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7SwfysgyM-j429PNm7H6LRBou_NXUnE_51EwX38gVaz3GJBF-hVSMVE6363IQthkWRrkLGbm2gfUIQhnDcDFHOKYq6TUFAUbmws3TFYpWBdo_MRbxKfxcczFiQX87kg3V0K0QO0aTeB4/s1600/NorthCoast_Thurs_wwIII_FNMO.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 314px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7SwfysgyM-j429PNm7H6LRBou_NXUnE_51EwX38gVaz3GJBF-hVSMVE6363IQthkWRrkLGbm2gfUIQhnDcDFHOKYq6TUFAUbmws3TFYpWBdo_MRbxKfxcczFiQX87kg3V0K0QO0aTeB4/s400/NorthCoast_Thurs_wwIII_FNMO.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159460541642322" /></a><br /><br />Anyhoo…the pictures are pretty in all…but lets talk about some surf.<br /><br /><b>Northern and Central California</b><br /><br />The new W-WNW swell (275-315) is already showing on the SE Papa Buoy (#46006)…and actually started to hit this outer buoy around 4-5 am this morning with a sizeable dose of energy in that 18-20-second swell-period range. Check out the buoy’s historical data…<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi47y5bzqTMjHvkoRNhLySrKUTeiTdIGGKe2YCn-uxPePXAvL9pF5p3sFBFvXHeijRJxMvLE-h4s5TY8fsXg2BzL8yBU3E7pdMsuJXtpaXFQPNIRKFtG2CjOhw5lOZNEAnTvzRka4oN9FU/s1600/NOAA_46006_swell-height.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi47y5bzqTMjHvkoRNhLySrKUTeiTdIGGKe2YCn-uxPePXAvL9pF5p3sFBFvXHeijRJxMvLE-h4s5TY8fsXg2BzL8yBU3E7pdMsuJXtpaXFQPNIRKFtG2CjOhw5lOZNEAnTvzRka4oN9FU/s400/NOAA_46006_swell-height.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159458579071378" /></a><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTJKS4lyGSG1pbcjXjGbdHPugf4-hbRpU7KvgB-zKTRssyDKox3UhwZghhCthOIY2Y92Ub8NRW6Lq2UA9zoV4dw_SizMKIjzdhDXaO27DpjTSR98iA4XkTdXzirz6bRrIgzPmQkWZLPng/s1600/NOAA_46006_swell-period.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTJKS4lyGSG1pbcjXjGbdHPugf4-hbRpU7KvgB-zKTRssyDKox3UhwZghhCthOIY2Y92Ub8NRW6Lq2UA9zoV4dw_SizMKIjzdhDXaO27DpjTSR98iA4XkTdXzirz6bRrIgzPmQkWZLPng/s400/NOAA_46006_swell-period.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159452021492226" /></a><br /><br />This buoy is about 600 miles west of Eureka…and is generally considered the 1-day buoy for Northern and Central California, which means that it takes a swell in the 17- to 18-second period range about 23-24 hours to actually hit the Northern/Central Cal beaches. (This buoy is usually 36-40 hours away form Southern California, depending on the swell period…) <br /><br />So based on the buoy data, and the JASON-1 pass, this is going to be a pretty solid swell for the exposed spots North of Point Conception. It will peak with 12-14-feet of deepwater swell, which generally translates into consistent well-overhead to double-overhead+ surf for the average spots. Top breaks will be more consistently in the double-triple overhead range. Best deepwater breaks, like Mavericks, will see steady 14-16-foot faces with some bombs coming in around 20’+ on the face. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4yqx84HwvQvAbB1TCEUulhjHJJ4coNg5X0Xn8CF9HuWmp4nplpoKkukfD4yc8XGsN7IWfbouP35IKCB_X95aX5HqyFXWTS59C6mF3SJ8y8dHVZqfFPS4DU2774wRjBc-5fNIB-lAUCqc/s1600/SF-Monterey_Thurs_COAMPS.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 319px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4yqx84HwvQvAbB1TCEUulhjHJJ4coNg5X0Xn8CF9HuWmp4nplpoKkukfD4yc8XGsN7IWfbouP35IKCB_X95aX5HqyFXWTS59C6mF3SJ8y8dHVZqfFPS4DU2774wRjBc-5fNIB-lAUCqc/s400/SF-Monterey_Thurs_COAMPS.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159184358211138" /></a><br /><br />Winds and weather are going to cooperate on Thursday…lots of light/variable winds in the morning with some spots seeing light/moderage offshore flow through the first part of the day. NW winds build in through the evening and strengthen more into Friday…if you are surfing this area, Thursday will definitely be the cleanest and likely the most fun day of this swell. <br /><br />Check out the CDIP models for the area…<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_XSvObwkpYPqnkD4ymWdrdus6e5668y1bM_K05UPGp5MLlsoNoNm2AH55wmxuO4Yc0bvHxzlCX49lWgwydDcUHVUc8ixc35D3lkid62fB7QfZLEfIlS99vJuZf_H0R2XkiQZ8YEKXWeM/s1600/NorthCoast_Thurs_CDIP.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 240px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_XSvObwkpYPqnkD4ymWdrdus6e5668y1bM_K05UPGp5MLlsoNoNm2AH55wmxuO4Yc0bvHxzlCX49lWgwydDcUHVUc8ixc35D3lkid62fB7QfZLEfIlS99vJuZf_H0R2XkiQZ8YEKXWeM/s400/NorthCoast_Thurs_CDIP.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159179367709026" /></a><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiElkS1cHjGZ4sIwhvbtph8pIsqBb3yBpEEdOotu_Qiw4sBqJ0hK13rKxq-Tc53cby7FULDNmPQTt8IPrLteqBzwDYzOqA54QfyMLHQJIP_13Ibwj7aBFvjuHQXzHQG9aHpve0QyJBegJI/s1600/Monterey_Thurs_CDIP.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 264px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiElkS1cHjGZ4sIwhvbtph8pIsqBb3yBpEEdOotu_Qiw4sBqJ0hK13rKxq-Tc53cby7FULDNmPQTt8IPrLteqBzwDYzOqA54QfyMLHQJIP_13Ibwj7aBFvjuHQXzHQG9aHpve0QyJBegJI/s400/Monterey_Thurs_CDIP.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159169938967762" /></a><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIHXzPiPxlgTZsg7w8GJAY1vQWr4pRlDlFvCKhQuGUAngMxz2QJJyYmsZhZB2AAvl3553tUKai8dDWozG6uPU6y0b_1_Btbhk-Xw6KRKLE3aDr0z3q9gS8erVXbW4vCfkC9DVYBsa-IA/s1600/CentralCoast_Thurs_CDIP.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 259px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIHXzPiPxlgTZsg7w8GJAY1vQWr4pRlDlFvCKhQuGUAngMxz2QJJyYmsZhZB2AAvl3553tUKai8dDWozG6uPU6y0b_1_Btbhk-Xw6KRKLE3aDr0z3q9gS8erVXbW4vCfkC9DVYBsa-IA/s400/CentralCoast_Thurs_CDIP.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159167417657954" /></a><br /><br /><b>Southern California</b> <br /><br />Socal is going to see some new long-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) showing in the well exposed Santa Barbara and Ventura breaks late in the afternoon/evening on Thursday. The swell will fill in more overnight and will start to peak for all areas by midmorning on Friday. <br /><br />Friday Morning…<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLJ9D43QSCS9JGl9bICeUd39Va4yWssqhAUDsWiIT3qKM5bF-w9WVqg3UrS6_Cb_49ZLI6Ftl7XYGDRGyj8X2EnOrhJDU_8VNM2K9rRyezpACX7V2DBkxJkmCf_m4KL9j8_Z2mAqAzSCE/s1600/Socal_Fri_swell_CDIP.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 396px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLJ9D43QSCS9JGl9bICeUd39Va4yWssqhAUDsWiIT3qKM5bF-w9WVqg3UrS6_Cb_49ZLI6Ftl7XYGDRGyj8X2EnOrhJDU_8VNM2K9rRyezpACX7V2DBkxJkmCf_m4KL9j8_Z2mAqAzSCE/s400/Socal_Fri_swell_CDIP.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5408159159134051074" /></a><br /><br />This is another one of those swells where the majority of the energy is riding in around 290-300…but with enough (more) westerly energy from (280-300) to keep waves showing at the lesser exposed spots. <br /><br />As this swell peaks we can expect the average WNW facing spots to see consistent chest-shoulder high surf with sets going head high…with a couple of bigger sets mixing in. The top NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and parts of San Diego, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going 2-3-feet overhead…and possibly bigger at those excellent breaks that can focus the long-medium period NW energy. <br /><br />Winds look good for both Thursday and Friday…mostly light and variable through the mornings (a little more offshore on Thursday)…and then only moderate onshore flow around 10-15 knots for the late afternoon. Stronger NW winds build in later Friday evening. <br /><br /> <br /><b>Overall</b>…this is looking like a pretty good swell, particularly if you like big waves and you live up North. For SoCal though…I think it will be fun, but due to the majority of the energy coming in from 290+, there will be some shadowing issues…and if you don’t stick the best exposed spots you won’t see the larger surf. It will be rideable almost everywhere that has exposure…so you don’t “have” to drive far to get waves, but if you are looking for the overhead stuff plan on heading to the normal winter standouts.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-75201137760292326332009-11-09T10:52:00.001-08:002009-11-09T10:52:34.357-08:00Surf Photos – November 7th and 8th 2009Here are a few shots sent in by one of our Nor/Cen California brethren…these were all taken at a partially exposed surf area over the weekend as the NW swell was peaking. Looks pretty darn fun considering that it wasn’t getting a full dose of the NW’er. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjIam1XBTrlCGacebyvEcrt1XnobDn1FM-gjr05T_YNvjD6aMY3Fb4oa38Dv8ZTS7ESZPVojak5MVnY_94Pl-fQQqW5l7WcD9ppV0nDHBxwQs99B1W9dcsucqroisHDvFgwDfZPZFpG6o/s1600-h/Right_lining-up.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjIam1XBTrlCGacebyvEcrt1XnobDn1FM-gjr05T_YNvjD6aMY3Fb4oa38Dv8ZTS7ESZPVojak5MVnY_94Pl-fQQqW5l7WcD9ppV0nDHBxwQs99B1W9dcsucqroisHDvFgwDfZPZFpG6o/s400/Right_lining-up.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5402177902540864418" /></a><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZXfNyH1ZF4AF5bZWQ85UT1sF4NUqW4vIrF0UiGseOERJ7dW2_C7lM24MIuWJ1bjeiB8QtRY0_u-eJmYkU-zLdjlf9tpWY6AW_MWwOTFItBB5nYLssXJbsUa_DhwqeKsBlOnCQtrGOAQE/s1600-h/Right_Shoulder.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZXfNyH1ZF4AF5bZWQ85UT1sF4NUqW4vIrF0UiGseOERJ7dW2_C7lM24MIuWJ1bjeiB8QtRY0_u-eJmYkU-zLdjlf9tpWY6AW_MWwOTFItBB5nYLssXJbsUa_DhwqeKsBlOnCQtrGOAQE/s400/Right_Shoulder.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5402177899873604914" /></a><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWT9uFMcmwcHbQynVRNh1tvF1s7YmfXKLa5l9A8wdgabEflXWSAtYX3M9cUzJFK7eur1l8Cwsst_8QNPBk36riUrxQfu1b69GYM4BmOkR-W1I7t8uPXPJ3EkyqAt54WCZbm13w7HE0Pl4/s1600-h/peaky.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWT9uFMcmwcHbQynVRNh1tvF1s7YmfXKLa5l9A8wdgabEflXWSAtYX3M9cUzJFK7eur1l8Cwsst_8QNPBk36riUrxQfu1b69GYM4BmOkR-W1I7t8uPXPJ3EkyqAt54WCZbm13w7HE0Pl4/s400/peaky.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5402177889420767186" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGsPUYIOTx_2LGU5nzqK3_URy-y9TByINUnaOOcJM2ywlD79x7M2Eye4QV9BFfnr-KeQ2tHPtfAtWxgfY0no0YOPKLl7EkM8tWybKgbfh2DIVDzhSn1wwyC1zJezbkXm-OV7rXhGwYodU/s1600-h/out-back.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGsPUYIOTx_2LGU5nzqK3_URy-y9TByINUnaOOcJM2ywlD79x7M2Eye4QV9BFfnr-KeQ2tHPtfAtWxgfY0no0YOPKLl7EkM8tWybKgbfh2DIVDzhSn1wwyC1zJezbkXm-OV7rXhGwYodU/s400/out-back.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5402177887962613954" /></a><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsZbUIBpaNb1KGOPQy5yjZYnm1tx6A81KDzuD9_1kpHFMTVBz7OjjxFObIiN9HNxvoCht3ylGVk8iVxQHigTntp2B97N3vYL5-ioa9caNbGS4DEX0JDZWaUXEJrKOE6B3X_0ylDUlAKUU/s1600-h/inside_nugget.jpg"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 266px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsZbUIBpaNb1KGOPQy5yjZYnm1tx6A81KDzuD9_1kpHFMTVBz7OjjxFObIiN9HNxvoCht3ylGVk8iVxQHigTntp2B97N3vYL5-ioa9caNbGS4DEX0JDZWaUXEJrKOE6B3X_0ylDUlAKUU/s400/inside_nugget.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5402177876580873506" /></a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-33489899681751369322008-07-15T18:13:00.000-07:002009-10-07T10:31:39.893-07:00Something brewing in the South Pacific - Waves on the waySo after watching the storm, and the swell it produced, for the last couple of days it looks like things are on track for a pretty decent run of swell throughout Central America, Mainland Mexico, Baja Mexico, and Southern California.<br /><br />I revised the forecast a little from the one I issued a couple of days ago...not much size-wise but just a little on the timing.<br /><br /><strong>Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico</strong> will be the biggest...look for easy well-overhead surf for most exposed areas. Top spots will go double-overhead and bigger as the swell peaks on the 18-19th. Deepwater breaks like Puerto Escondido will be even bigger, probably triple-overhead+ on the sets.<br /><br /><strong>Northern Mainland Mexico</strong> will see the size drop off a bit...just due to the more southerly angle of the swell. Look for most spots in that area to see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range. Standout S facing spots will have sets going a few feet overhead as the swell peaks late on the 18 and into the 19th.<br /><br /><strong>Baja Sur</strong> will see the swell move in and peak on the 19-20th...with the tip peaking a little earlier. Most spots will be running in the shoulder-overhead range as the swell starts really working. Standout spots, particularly breaks near the Tip, will have sets going a few feet overhead and a little bigger at the swell's peak.<br /><br /><strong>Southern California and Baja Norte</strong> will have long-period energy from this S swell (170-190) showing late on Friday the 18th...this will build overnight and through Saturday, eventually peaking Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then slowly fading out on Monday. At this point we can expect the average S facing spots to see shoulder-head high+ surf while the standout S facing areas, particularly in North Orange County, see some overhead+ sets as the swell peaks. To top it off there will be some tropical energy still lingering around as leftovers from Elida slowly fade away...this energy should help to fill in the consistency gaps and put a lot of waves into the exposed areas throughout the weekend.<br /><br />Make sure to check back...I will be talking about the swell some more in the Daily Update as we get closer...or I might bail to Mexico and leave you hanging...it is about 50/50 right now (just kidding...well sort of).<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzIW3PCTTI14eKCZfpOt_Zv_JA7J9SY5RDsvbkHCOi0kTKlS0vjAmKJnAUtWMLoHrtf9pGp6lHQwqF3XIPdNp9eotGELrIPZ6hJ1XUPEuuIYjIRVNXnhcTGYJz6Ipl0h66vBinuRzC/s1600-h/swell_period.gif"><img style="CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5223412818312494402" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzIW3PCTTI14eKCZfpOt_Zv_JA7J9SY5RDsvbkHCOi0kTKlS0vjAmKJnAUtWMLoHrtf9pGp6lHQwqF3XIPdNp9eotGELrIPZ6hJ1XUPEuuIYjIRVNXnhcTGYJz6Ipl0h66vBinuRzC/s400/swell_period.gif" width="531" height="484" /></a><br /><div></div><br /><br />Here are some links to the previous posts<br /><br /><a href="http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2008/07/something-brewing-in-south-pacifichmmm.html">Post 1</a><br /><a href="http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2008/07/something-brewing-in-south-pacific-part.html">Post 2</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-83569877865024542622008-07-04T16:28:00.000-07:002008-07-04T16:29:43.279-07:00Waves for the weekend – Happy 4th of July!It looks marginally surfable this weekend…sort of fun since it is a holiday but nothing worth burning a ton of gas and time trying to get to the beach.<br /><br />We are going to see the mix of steep NW windswell and background SW swells continue as we head into Saturday and Sunday. Most spots will continue to see surf in the waist-shoulder high range while the standout NW windswell spots see some bigger waves by the end of the weekend as winds increase in the outer waters.<br /><br />Nearshore winds don’t look horrible. Spots north of SF will have NW flow around 5-15 knots with stronger gusts in the afternoon. Central Coast areas, including Santa Cruz, will be closer to 5-10 knots for the mornings and a little more bump by the end of the day.<br /><br />Again I think it is worth paddling out if you live close to the beach, or are planning on killing some time at your local spots over the holiday weekend. Otherwise I wouldn’t put in a lot of effort getting to the water…it will be just as fun, and waaaaay less crowded as we head into next week.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-75983454442031586402008-07-03T12:13:00.001-07:002008-07-03T12:13:56.153-07:00Surfing on 4th of July - Some fog and a few little wavesFriday looks surfable if only because it is a holiday and we should be spending it on the beach BBQ'ing anyways.<br /><br />We will have a mix of mostly WNW windswell and some background SW energy. Most spots will continue to see waist-chest high surf while the better WNW facing beaches and good combo spots see some chest-shoulder high sets.<br /><br />Winds are expected to be on the light side through the morning (along with more fog and light texture). Afternoon winds come onshore around 10-15 knots from the west.<br /><br />Overall I don’t think it is going to matter a whole lot where you surf...the S facing spots will be cleaner but smaller and less consistent. NW facing spots will be mostly windswell and will have a bit more texture...so it is sort of a toss up. Personally I would plan on trying to get a decent little stretch of beach, break out the big boards, and eat a few too many hotdogs, or soydogs (you hippy), while celebrating the holiday.<br /><br /><strong>Have a great holiday everyone...I will have an update for the weekend tomorrow!</strong>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-37888490184505093692008-07-02T17:16:00.001-07:002008-07-02T17:16:41.297-07:00Thursday's Surf - Clean but smallThursday will be rideable but not that exciting.<br /><br />We will have a mix of leftover short-period WNW windswell and some minor pulses from the SW. Most spots will hold around waist-high while the standout combo spots that have a little more exposure to the SW will see some chest high+ sets.<br /><br />Conditions look clean with mostly light W winds 5-10 knots on tap through the morning and some gusts nearly 15 knots by the afternoon.<br /><br />I would plan on breaking out the longboard...or the fishy boards if you are on the small/light side. Basically you are going to want something that will help you generate a little speed in the small soft surf.<br /><br />Summer spots will likely have the better shape and size...but overall they won't be that different from the WNW facing breaks...definitely not worth driving very far to try and find waves.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-77697286322255428182008-07-02T17:15:00.000-07:002008-07-02T17:16:03.074-07:00Tropical Storm Douglas - setting up some waves for the Tip of BajaWell we went from almost from 0-to-60 in the tropics over the last few days. We have had 3 named storms develop since June 27th and now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting another named system to develop in the next day or so.<br /><br />Currently one of the three named storms is the former TD-4E which strengthened into Tropical Storm Douglas earlier this morning.<br /><br />Check out the latest forecast run for TS Douglas<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-FcfsmbAHJPwOV-YhPD42oihKQBQvpfCb6KWIpSeMKQCyB9XWpSz6L-xdnZkOYqRZgG8qnN8DOrwrWNucbtr-160tJimTWM0qS0UNh3V0-GvNvdVLF-Y1qxL2plWAlv86c3vm5jgR/s1600-h/TS-Douglas.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5218574328421038658" style="CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-FcfsmbAHJPwOV-YhPD42oihKQBQvpfCb6KWIpSeMKQCyB9XWpSz6L-xdnZkOYqRZgG8qnN8DOrwrWNucbtr-160tJimTWM0qS0UNh3V0-GvNvdVLF-Y1qxL2plWAlv86c3vm5jgR/s400/TS-Douglas.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><strong>Waves for SoCal (yeah not so much)</strong><br />As you can see from the red line TS Douglas is still out of the Southern California swell window but he is inching closer as he tracks to the NW at 8 knots. At this pace it looks like the surf-generating parts of the storm (the NE and SE) won't actually move into the swell window until some time later on Friday...unfortunately it doesn't look like Douglas is going to get much stronger so I don't think he will be much of a wave maker for SoCal...some small waves...but nothing to get real fired up about. If anything shows it won't be until we move into the weekend...likely later on Saturday and into Sunday.<br /><br /><strong>Waves for Baja Sur</strong><br />Baja Sur, in particular the Tip, is looking much better in terms of getting surf from TS Douglas. He is positioned only a few hundred miles from Cabo and while he doesn't have great overall wind speeds he is well-positioned and moving the right direction which really help generate swell. At this point it looks like the expose areas around the Tip and the East Cape will start to see new tropical S swell move in on Thursday afternoon and then peak into Friday. I expect wave heights to hold in the shoulder-head high range at the better exposed S facing breaks. Remember those sizes are at the Tip...wave height and set consistency will drop off the further north you move up the Pacific Side.<br /><br /><strong>Waves for NorCal</strong><br />We have a tropical region?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-51735942854025270522008-06-25T17:41:00.000-07:002008-06-25T17:51:26.487-07:00Thursday’s Surf – More wind…wow imagine thatThursday will be another windy day…it will be surfable at the protected spots but the exposed breaks are going to be pretty bumpy.<br /><br />We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some minor background SW swell on Thursday.<br /><br />The NW facing spots will have consistent shoulder-overhead+ surf but with sloppy/poor shape thanks to the short-period nature of the swell…oh that and the onshore NW winds that will be blowing near 25+ knots…yeah those are going to suck.<br /><br />SW facing spots will be working off mostly the SW swell…which will be much smaller, mostly knee-chest high at the average spots. Standout SW breaks in Santa Cruz and the Central Coast will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the lower tides. Expect longer waits between waves on the lower tide…and a near swamp out once the high tide fills in.<br /><br />If you can try and surf the protected spots…the winds will be just a bit too strong at the exposed breaks to make it worth paddling out.<br /><br />Things do get better on Friday…South winds are expected to pick up, so look for cleaner conditions at many of the more exposed spots (like many in SF). Check back tomorrow for more info.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-43090537267744091952008-06-24T17:16:00.000-07:002008-06-24T17:18:34.743-07:00Wednesday's windswell - isn't it summer, what is with all the wind?Wednesday isn't looking all that surfable for most spots...Santa Cruz (and protected Central Coast spots) will be cleaner and should have some small but rideable SW energy keeping it from going totally flat.<br /><br />Most of our surf on Wednesday will be steep NW windswell...the SW facing spots and a few of the combo areas will have a new, but small, SW swell (200-220) sending in some inconsistent sets.<br /><br />NW facing spots can expect more shoulder-overhead windswell waves with generally poor stacked up shape. You might be able to find a semi-rideable peak on a really good (and semi-protected) sandbar if you are lucky but overall it won't be worth driving very far to check it.<br /><br />SW facing spots will be working off a mix of mostly leftovers and weak new SW swell. Those breaks will be mostly in the waist-chest high range but I expect a few slightly bigger sets to sneak through on the tide push. Again it won't be worth driving very far to get waves but if you live close enough and don't mind the smaller surf you might want to take a look at it.<br /><br />Check out the wind forecast for Wednesday morning (8am)<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigh9cgRSpWKJDZbVnp0dXT-g1it1FB01B3lhZuc9kiCQEJV79UJ1RzpwbdNAUpEBc6LLOCXPWqapmjEg_C50t1BJjO9TEemjBL1uMjTdi5gpEeexXgpzs00STUPUWR5H2ppTKl2RWZBxwX/s1600-h/NorCal_wind.png"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5215606662086989730" style="CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigh9cgRSpWKJDZbVnp0dXT-g1it1FB01B3lhZuc9kiCQEJV79UJ1RzpwbdNAUpEBc6LLOCXPWqapmjEg_C50t1BJjO9TEemjBL1uMjTdi5gpEeexXgpzs00STUPUWR5H2ppTKl2RWZBxwX/s400/NorCal_wind.png" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />As you can see it starts off pretty breezy...and you can bet it won't get any cleaner as we head into the afternoon. Definitely limit your surf checks to spots with at least some protection from the NW'erly winds.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-64210384879376438452008-06-23T21:27:00.000-07:002008-06-23T21:43:44.772-07:00Tuesday's Surf - Winds, Windswell, and watching stuff burnTuesday will be a surf day at the protected areas...but in general it looks a bit bumpy/sloppy as the onshore winds increase out of the NW.<br /><br />We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some fading SW energy. Most NW facing spots will see sloppy overhead+ surf...very windswelly stacked up shape and mostly blown out conditions through the day. The one exception to this will be the more exposed areas in the Central California/Santa Cruz areas...winds are forecast to be a little lighter so you might be able to pick off some of the windswell mix early in the morning before the bump gets bad.<br /><br />SW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some rare chest-high+ sets on the tide push.<br /><br />Personally I would try and stick to the springtime spots on Tuesday...breaks that can handle the NW winds, still pull in a little windswell, and will have a chance to mix in a touch of SW energy. There aren't a ton of them out there but if you hunt around (or already know where they are) then you have a shot at getting some, at least, rideable waves.<br /><br />Those fires up that way have been crazy...hope you guys have been able to avoid the blazes.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-16059384984300230332008-06-18T17:24:00.000-07:002008-06-18T17:25:37.192-07:00Vacation and Long-Range Surf ForecastHey gang I just wanted to give you a heads up...one of my best friends is being deployed to Iraq (he flies a Blackhawk for the Army), so I am finally going to take a couple of days off to hang out (and throw a party naturally) with him before he ships out.<br /><br />So I am posting a long-range surf forecast for Northern California the next few days...If my liver is still working at the end of this weekend I should be back and have an update for Monday's forecast. See you then!<br /><br />Here is the forecast...there are not a lot of changes over the next few days...just plenty of SW swell (and local windswell)<br /><br />Thursday through Sunday are going to be some pretty decent surf days. Good weather will combine with weaker winds and open up more surfing options for the next few days.<br /><br />In the water we will have a mix of SW swells (200-220) and some backing down WNW windswell. Most NW facing spots will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW breaks see some bigger sets on the tide push.<br />SW facing spots see a new SW swell hold into Thursday with chest-shoulder high+ surf at the average breaks. Standouts will have some head high and overhead sets. Friday will have another round of SW energy arrive and help to reinforce the swell from earlier in the week. Wave heights will remain similar in the chest-head high+ range for the best spots. Those waves will hold into Saturday before slowly fading through Sunday.<br /><br />Winds look good over the next few days. Forecasts are calling for mostly light NW flow as high-pressure builds over the region. Look for NW flow around 5-10 knots for most of the North and Central Coasts during the mornings for the next few days. Afternoon winds stay lighter as well and only top out close to 15+ knots during the later parts of the day.<br /><br />Summer spots will still be the most fun over the next few days but the combo breaks, particularly the combo beach breaks, will have some decent surf potential during the mornings. I would try and stick with the more protected breaks during the afternoons. <br /><br />Anyway hope this gets you through the next few days...have a great weekend! (Ha I am on Vacation!)Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-25466809746881105952008-06-17T20:14:00.001-07:002008-06-17T20:14:46.002-07:00Wednesday’s Surf – A little cleaner but still on the fugly sideWednesday will be a surf day at spots protected from the WNW winds.<br /><br />We will have a solid mix of NW windswell and some peaking SW swell (190-220). Most exposed breaks will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf. Standout combo breaks that can really focus the mix of swells will have consistent head high and overhead sets. Best shape will be on the lower tides during the first half of the day.<br /><br />Winds will start off on the light side…mostly W around 5-10 knots with the cleanest conditions in the Monterey/Santa Cruz area. W winds 15-25 knots move in during the afternoon.<br /><br />SW facing spots in Santa Cruz, the North Bay, and at select areas along the Central Coast will be the best call tomorrow…they will have some protection from the W-NW winds, plenty of energy, and will likely have cleaner more surfable shape thanks to the longer SW swell periods. NW facing spots will be rideable early but the mix of shorter-periods and increasing winds will hamper shape by midmorning.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-23909495157725789802008-06-16T17:20:00.000-07:002008-06-16T17:23:58.061-07:00Tuesday's Surf - More freaking windTuesday is not looking like much of a surf day.<br /><br />There may be a small window for NW facing spots early in the morning but onshore winds will tear it up for most breaks by the afternoon.<br /><br />SW facing spots in Santa Cruz (and at other select areas along the Central Coast) will be the exception...they will be somewhat sheltered from the stronger NW winds and will continue to see healthy (if somewhat inconsistent) SW swell (200-225).<br /><br />Most SW facing spots will see surf in the shoulder-head high range on sets while the standout SW breaks see some overhead sets mixing in on the lower tides.<br /><br />NW facing spots will pull in a mix of sloppy short-period NW windswell. Most of those areas will see consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in at times as well. Shape will generally be poor thanks to the mix of jumbled up windswell and increasing onshore winds.<br /><br />Your best bet is going to be the summer spots...but it probably won't be worth driving very far to get to one unless you are desperate for some semi-clean surf. Even the SW facing spots will get some wind on it by the afternoon so try and surf early enough to avoid the worst of the bump.<br /><br />Finally here is a look at the CDIP swell models for the region…tomorrow will look very similar to what we are seeing today. It is worth noting though the Southern Hemi swell direction is really 200-220 (rather than 175)…for some reason CDIP has a tendency to average out the direction or get a bad data source and it gives an incorrect reading.<br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdKSEnOXml5xSM5g5yDOdTH7F70hyphenhyphend0IisU1kNaMY_bbmCFcS0AZOKkfNCjtAJNzTw-jjZ5SOneszae5c9eGq07fHFdH-dhGGBzeCdKYIHeyM_5cScZ7kyW6EJYMWwoi8StHc6fyWH96lM/s1600-h/NorCal.png"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5212639284718688818" style="CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdKSEnOXml5xSM5g5yDOdTH7F70hyphenhyphend0IisU1kNaMY_bbmCFcS0AZOKkfNCjtAJNzTw-jjZ5SOneszae5c9eGq07fHFdH-dhGGBzeCdKYIHeyM_5cScZ7kyW6EJYMWwoi8StHc6fyWH96lM/s400/NorCal.png" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcipv01Ahulq9xyVtxrauIU_Ueg4frqnZaCqlXiXMNkeJGFRwBAcvFsJ41L_i9A20bZnuY_k0IPGbKFiudvqjdqyIbeT8roE539Cqo3BJ36tv6Y5qMjIqcHv_eJsEXT2kQsN72GbgTbj6X/s1600-h/monterey.png"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5212639286429722258" style="CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcipv01Ahulq9xyVtxrauIU_Ueg4frqnZaCqlXiXMNkeJGFRwBAcvFsJ41L_i9A20bZnuY_k0IPGbKFiudvqjdqyIbeT8roE539Cqo3BJ36tv6Y5qMjIqcHv_eJsEXT2kQsN72GbgTbj6X/s400/monterey.png" border="0" /></a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-18491222886635390852008-06-13T16:51:00.000-07:002008-06-13T16:52:44.234-07:00Waves for the Weekend - Look there is even more SW swell!Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days...particularly Saturday and into Sunday morning.<br /><br />Saturday is going to see a mix of steady SW swell (190-220) and steep NW windswell. Most spots will continue to see chest-shoulder high surf while the standouts (both NW and SW) see shoulder-head high+ waves.<br /><br />Sunday there will actually be another SW pulse (200-220) joining the mix, overlapping the existing SW swell, all of which will blend with the steady NW windswell. Sunday expect a touch more size as the average exposed breaks build into chest-head high surf and the standout NW and SW facing breaks move back into the consistent head high and overhead ranges.<br /><br />Weather/Wind looks a bit better on Saturday. There will be some light S winds and dense fog on tap through the morning and then only moderate onshore winds through the afternoon.<br /><br />Sunday will have building NW winds arriving early in the day and then eventually strengthening to 20-25 knots by the afternoon.<br /><br />Saturday I think you will be able to pick what sort of spot you want to surf...though you will probably find the best shape at the SW facing spots and good combo breaks. Sunday I would probably plan on sticking with the summer SW spots since the NW winds will be increasing. The more protected areas will have a longer surf window, particularly if you can move to the inside sections as the winds increasing through the afternoon. Looks like Santa Cruz may be the call on Sunday (probably Monday too).<br /><br />Have a great weekend and an excellent Father's Day!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-57217169538677623352008-06-12T18:21:00.000-07:002008-06-12T18:27:15.514-07:00Friday (the 13th)’s surf – clean and playfulLooks like the ocean is going to give us a bit of a break on Friday…conditions and swell are going to clean up and in general it looks like Friday is going to be a surf day.<br /><br />In the water we are going to have a mix of backing of WNW short-period energy and a quickly fading SW swell.<br /><br />Most NW exposed breaks will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high sets coming through on the low tides.<br /><br />SW facing spots will have similar waist-chest high surf fairly consistently with a few shoulder high sets sneaking through at the standouts.<br /><br />Conditions look much cleaner with light and variable S winds in the morning and only moderate W winds 10-15 knots pushing through by the afternoon.<br /><br />While it won’t be pumping tomorrow it should be plenty of fun particularly on the low tide (and at spots that can pull in the mix of swells). Cleanest conditions will be in the morning so you might even think about penciling in a dawn patrol if you live close enough to a decent break.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-57521013011900045762008-06-10T12:29:00.000-07:002008-06-10T12:31:03.017-07:00Wednesday's Surf - More SW swell and spring windsWednesday is looking a bit breezy but it will still be surfable at spots protected from the NW winds.<br /><br />In the water we are going to see a mix of steep NW windswell and steady SW swell (200-220). Most spots will continue to see shoulder-overhead surf off the sloppier short-period NW swell. Summer spots will be close on sizes…but a little less consistent. Expect SW facing breaks to have waves in the chest-shoulder high range with sets hitting the head high and overhead range on the better tides.<br /><br />Winds are forecast to start off out of the NW in the 10-20 knot range for the morning and then eventually top out close to 30+ knots by the afternoon.<br /><br />Personally I would stick to the SW spots (if you have a choice)…and again I think there will be enough swell in the water to make it worth driving a little ways if you have to get on the road to find a cleaner break.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-49024877179446320502008-06-09T18:23:00.000-07:002008-06-09T18:24:12.126-07:00Tuesday's Surf - Getting funky nowTuesday will be a surf day for SW facing spots (mainly in Santa Cruz)...NW facing spots see consistent windswell but with increasingly poor conditions as the NW winds build in through the afternoon.<br /><br />SW swell peaks on Tuesday with plenty of waves in the chest-head high range for the average exposed breaks. Standout summer spots will have sets going a couple of feet overhead on the tide push. Good combo spots will also have overhead waves off the mix of swells but may have wind issues as well if they are too exposed.<br /><br />Look for WNW winds 10-15+ knots to build in through the morning and NW flow to top out near 25+ knots by the afternoon.<br /><br />I would plan on surfing a SW facing spot on Tuesday...there is a lot of energy, plenty of waves, and you will have some protection from the wind. There is even enough size that, if you have the time, it would be worth driving to score at a summer spot.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-41900547868020937222008-06-06T18:49:00.001-07:002008-06-06T18:49:30.001-07:00Weekend Surf - Looking a bit breezyWNW winds continue to blow in the 15-30 knot range as we move through the weekend. In general surf looks on the poor side for most of the exposed spots (with some rare pockets possibly slipping during the early mornings).<br />SW spots will do better since they have a building SW swell and a bit more protection from the winds. Look for the average SW spots to see surf in the waist-chest high range while the standout SW spots will have some shoulder high+ sets on the tide-push.<br /><br />I think that the summer spots in Santa Cruz, and maybe up in the North Bay, will be your best call this weekend. In general it won't be great even at those protected breaks...there will be a lot of wind in the outer waters, with some texture and bump making it to the beach in most areas. If you have to surf try and schedule it around the tide swing aiming to paddle out somewhere between the low tide trough and the peak of the high tide.<br /><br />Have a great weekend!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-63398760015438112362008-06-05T17:24:00.000-07:002008-06-05T17:31:57.818-07:00Friday’s Surf – More wind…but with some waves mixed in as wellFriday won’t be much of a surf day for most areas…but there may be a few rideable waves for the morning at the NW facing spots. The summer breaks in Santa Cruz should be rideable (but on the small side) for most of the day.<br /><br />We will have a mix of strong but steep NW windswell and a slowly building SW swell. Most spots will have shoulder-head high surf from the windswell…but shape will be on the poor side thanks to the stacked up and sort of gutless nature of the swell.<br /><br />Summer spots will be around knee-chest high on the morning tide push and should see some shoulder high sets sneaking through at times during the afternoon. Sets will be inconsistent but worth the wait if the spot isn’t too crowded.<br /><br />Personally it doesn’t look like surf will be all that great tomorrow…the winds are going to howl during the afternoon (and should be blowing NW around 10-12 knots pretty much from sunup through mid-morning). If you have to surf I would try and get on it early, stick to the more protected spots, and keep an open mind. If you are lucky enough to have a SW facing spot nearby...then plan on getting your cleanest waves at those breaks.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-58491187361199485592008-06-04T18:27:00.001-07:002008-06-04T18:27:57.953-07:00Thursday's craptacular - yeah it looks pretty sucky againThursday will be blown out and mostly unsurfable.<br /><br />Lots of WNW-NW wind on tap again on Thursday...WNW winds will hold around 15-30 knots for most of the NW facing breaks, particularly the more open beach breaks around San Fran and spots to the north...actually the central coast looks pretty bad too...basically only the Monterey Bay area will see lighter winds and even those will still be around 10-15 knots for most of the day.<br /><br />Needless to say that unless you want to surf super small longboard waves waaaaay on the inside of some really protected point in Santa Cruz then you might want to hold off trying to surf on Thursday.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-30585894319213108072008-06-03T18:37:00.001-07:002008-06-03T18:37:54.152-07:00Wednesday’s Slop – Getting Funky NowWednesday will really NOT be a surf day. Onshore winds are going to turkey stomp conditions and it looks like even the most protected breaks are going to have issues.<br /><br />Surf will be up but it will be almost completely windswell. Look for shoulder-overhead sizes but with really poor shape thanks to the steady onshore winds.<br /><br />Look for W winds 15-25 knots through the morning along with some drizzle and patchy fog to make it even more appealing.<br /><br />There may be some semi-rideable (and I use the term loosely) waves at the super-protected spots waaaaaay on the inside of some of the points in Monterey/Santa Cruz…but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Basically I wouldn’t plan on surfing even those spots unless you live right next to them (walking distance)…though if you lived that close you probably don’t care about surf forecasts that much.<br /><br />Conditions do clean up later this week…there is chance at some better waves this weekend. Make sure to check back for updates.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-8491760000368736042008-06-02T18:52:00.000-07:002008-06-02T18:53:24.497-07:00Tuesday's Surf - Looking a bit bumpyIt doesn't look like Tuesday is going to be much of a surf day. There will be some semi-rideable waves through Santa Cruz but most of the other regions will have wind issues throughout the day.<br /><br />Swellwise we are going to see a mix of NW windswell and background S-SW energy. Most NW facing breaks will have chest-shoulder high waves but with generally poor shape due to the short-period nature of the swell and texture from the onshore wind.<br />SW facing breaks will be on the small side with knee to maybe waist high waves on the bigger sets.<br /><br />Winds will be onshore out of the NW around 10-12 knots through the morning (though Monterey Bay sees light and variable winds early). Look for onshore flow around 10-20 knots out of the NW by the afternoon.<br /><br />If you live close to the beach I wouldn't totally rule out a quick driveby...or at least a camera check...but I definitely wouldn't waste a lot of gas trying to find waves.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5078740324823783309.post-33034656478776531932008-05-30T16:38:00.001-07:002008-05-30T16:38:41.927-07:00Weekend Surf - More windswell, more wind, and a little bitty S swellSaturday and Sunday will be surfable but I am not sure that I would call them "surf-days"<br /><br />We will have a mix of building but steeply angled NW windswell, some very small and inconsistent SW energy, and a new but shadowed S swell (180) showing in a few select areas.<br /><br />We will also have to deal with the high tide hitting right in the middle of the morning and increasing onshore winds in the afternoon.<br /><br />In general expect surf around waist high for most areas...maybe a few bigger sets at the top NW facing breaks by the afternoons. It will be mostly windswell so shape will be on the gutless stacked-up side. Look for small to almost flat sizes as the high tide peaks in the morning and again in the evening.<br /><br />No real "best bets" this weekend...just try and find a few waves at your local spots...don't drive very far (or waste gas) looking for better waves because there won't be many to find.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12486282789841401406noreply@blogger.com0