Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Something brewing in the South Pacific - Waves on the way

So after watching the storm, and the swell it produced, for the last couple of days it looks like things are on track for a pretty decent run of swell throughout Central America, Mainland Mexico, Baja Mexico, and Southern California.

I revised the forecast a little from the one I issued a couple of days ago...not much size-wise but just a little on the timing.

Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico will be the biggest...look for easy well-overhead surf for most exposed areas. Top spots will go double-overhead and bigger as the swell peaks on the 18-19th. Deepwater breaks like Puerto Escondido will be even bigger, probably triple-overhead+ on the sets.

Northern Mainland Mexico will see the size drop off a bit...just due to the more southerly angle of the swell. Look for most spots in that area to see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range. Standout S facing spots will have sets going a few feet overhead as the swell peaks late on the 18 and into the 19th.

Baja Sur will see the swell move in and peak on the 19-20th...with the tip peaking a little earlier. Most spots will be running in the shoulder-overhead range as the swell starts really working. Standout spots, particularly breaks near the Tip, will have sets going a few feet overhead and a little bigger at the swell's peak.

Southern California and Baja Norte will have long-period energy from this S swell (170-190) showing late on Friday the 18th...this will build overnight and through Saturday, eventually peaking Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then slowly fading out on Monday. At this point we can expect the average S facing spots to see shoulder-head high+ surf while the standout S facing areas, particularly in North Orange County, see some overhead+ sets as the swell peaks. To top it off there will be some tropical energy still lingering around as leftovers from Elida slowly fade away...this energy should help to fill in the consistency gaps and put a lot of waves into the exposed areas throughout the weekend.

Make sure to check back...I will be talking about the swell some more in the Daily Update as we get closer...or I might bail to Mexico and leave you hanging...it is about 50/50 right now (just kidding...well sort of).

Here are some links to the previous posts

Post 1
Post 2

Friday, July 4, 2008

Waves for the weekend – Happy 4th of July!

It looks marginally surfable this weekend…sort of fun since it is a holiday but nothing worth burning a ton of gas and time trying to get to the beach.

We are going to see the mix of steep NW windswell and background SW swells continue as we head into Saturday and Sunday. Most spots will continue to see surf in the waist-shoulder high range while the standout NW windswell spots see some bigger waves by the end of the weekend as winds increase in the outer waters.

Nearshore winds don’t look horrible. Spots north of SF will have NW flow around 5-15 knots with stronger gusts in the afternoon. Central Coast areas, including Santa Cruz, will be closer to 5-10 knots for the mornings and a little more bump by the end of the day.

Again I think it is worth paddling out if you live close to the beach, or are planning on killing some time at your local spots over the holiday weekend. Otherwise I wouldn’t put in a lot of effort getting to the water…it will be just as fun, and waaaaay less crowded as we head into next week.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Surfing on 4th of July - Some fog and a few little waves

Friday looks surfable if only because it is a holiday and we should be spending it on the beach BBQ'ing anyways.

We will have a mix of mostly WNW windswell and some background SW energy. Most spots will continue to see waist-chest high surf while the better WNW facing beaches and good combo spots see some chest-shoulder high sets.

Winds are expected to be on the light side through the morning (along with more fog and light texture). Afternoon winds come onshore around 10-15 knots from the west.

Overall I don’t think it is going to matter a whole lot where you surf...the S facing spots will be cleaner but smaller and less consistent. NW facing spots will be mostly windswell and will have a bit more texture...so it is sort of a toss up. Personally I would plan on trying to get a decent little stretch of beach, break out the big boards, and eat a few too many hotdogs, or soydogs (you hippy), while celebrating the holiday.

Have a great holiday everyone...I will have an update for the weekend tomorrow!

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Thursday's Surf - Clean but small

Thursday will be rideable but not that exciting.

We will have a mix of leftover short-period WNW windswell and some minor pulses from the SW. Most spots will hold around waist-high while the standout combo spots that have a little more exposure to the SW will see some chest high+ sets.

Conditions look clean with mostly light W winds 5-10 knots on tap through the morning and some gusts nearly 15 knots by the afternoon.

I would plan on breaking out the longboard...or the fishy boards if you are on the small/light side. Basically you are going to want something that will help you generate a little speed in the small soft surf.

Summer spots will likely have the better shape and size...but overall they won't be that different from the WNW facing breaks...definitely not worth driving very far to try and find waves.

Tropical Storm Douglas - setting up some waves for the Tip of Baja

Well we went from almost from 0-to-60 in the tropics over the last few days. We have had 3 named storms develop since June 27th and now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting another named system to develop in the next day or so.

Currently one of the three named storms is the former TD-4E which strengthened into Tropical Storm Douglas earlier this morning.

Check out the latest forecast run for TS Douglas

Waves for SoCal (yeah not so much)
As you can see from the red line TS Douglas is still out of the Southern California swell window but he is inching closer as he tracks to the NW at 8 knots. At this pace it looks like the surf-generating parts of the storm (the NE and SE) won't actually move into the swell window until some time later on Friday...unfortunately it doesn't look like Douglas is going to get much stronger so I don't think he will be much of a wave maker for SoCal...some small waves...but nothing to get real fired up about. If anything shows it won't be until we move into the weekend...likely later on Saturday and into Sunday.

Waves for Baja Sur
Baja Sur, in particular the Tip, is looking much better in terms of getting surf from TS Douglas. He is positioned only a few hundred miles from Cabo and while he doesn't have great overall wind speeds he is well-positioned and moving the right direction which really help generate swell. At this point it looks like the expose areas around the Tip and the East Cape will start to see new tropical S swell move in on Thursday afternoon and then peak into Friday. I expect wave heights to hold in the shoulder-head high range at the better exposed S facing breaks. Remember those sizes are at the Tip...wave height and set consistency will drop off the further north you move up the Pacific Side.

Waves for NorCal
We have a tropical region?