Thursday will be rideable but not that exciting.
We will have a mix of leftover short-period WNW windswell and some minor pulses from the SW. Most spots will hold around waist-high while the standout combo spots that have a little more exposure to the SW will see some chest high+ sets.
Conditions look clean with mostly light W winds 5-10 knots on tap through the morning and some gusts nearly 15 knots by the afternoon.
I would plan on breaking out the longboard...or the fishy boards if you are on the small/light side. Basically you are going to want something that will help you generate a little speed in the small soft surf.
Summer spots will likely have the better shape and size...but overall they won't be that different from the WNW facing breaks...definitely not worth driving very far to try and find waves.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Tropical Storm Douglas - setting up some waves for the Tip of Baja
Well we went from almost from 0-to-60 in the tropics over the last few days. We have had 3 named storms develop since June 27th and now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting another named system to develop in the next day or so.
Currently one of the three named storms is the former TD-4E which strengthened into Tropical Storm Douglas earlier this morning.
Check out the latest forecast run for TS Douglas
Waves for SoCal (yeah not so much)
As you can see from the red line TS Douglas is still out of the Southern California swell window but he is inching closer as he tracks to the NW at 8 knots. At this pace it looks like the surf-generating parts of the storm (the NE and SE) won't actually move into the swell window until some time later on Friday...unfortunately it doesn't look like Douglas is going to get much stronger so I don't think he will be much of a wave maker for SoCal...some small waves...but nothing to get real fired up about. If anything shows it won't be until we move into the weekend...likely later on Saturday and into Sunday.
Waves for Baja Sur
Baja Sur, in particular the Tip, is looking much better in terms of getting surf from TS Douglas. He is positioned only a few hundred miles from Cabo and while he doesn't have great overall wind speeds he is well-positioned and moving the right direction which really help generate swell. At this point it looks like the expose areas around the Tip and the East Cape will start to see new tropical S swell move in on Thursday afternoon and then peak into Friday. I expect wave heights to hold in the shoulder-head high range at the better exposed S facing breaks. Remember those sizes are at the Tip...wave height and set consistency will drop off the further north you move up the Pacific Side.
Waves for NorCal
We have a tropical region?
Currently one of the three named storms is the former TD-4E which strengthened into Tropical Storm Douglas earlier this morning.
Check out the latest forecast run for TS Douglas
Waves for SoCal (yeah not so much)
As you can see from the red line TS Douglas is still out of the Southern California swell window but he is inching closer as he tracks to the NW at 8 knots. At this pace it looks like the surf-generating parts of the storm (the NE and SE) won't actually move into the swell window until some time later on Friday...unfortunately it doesn't look like Douglas is going to get much stronger so I don't think he will be much of a wave maker for SoCal...some small waves...but nothing to get real fired up about. If anything shows it won't be until we move into the weekend...likely later on Saturday and into Sunday.
Waves for Baja Sur
Baja Sur, in particular the Tip, is looking much better in terms of getting surf from TS Douglas. He is positioned only a few hundred miles from Cabo and while he doesn't have great overall wind speeds he is well-positioned and moving the right direction which really help generate swell. At this point it looks like the expose areas around the Tip and the East Cape will start to see new tropical S swell move in on Thursday afternoon and then peak into Friday. I expect wave heights to hold in the shoulder-head high range at the better exposed S facing breaks. Remember those sizes are at the Tip...wave height and set consistency will drop off the further north you move up the Pacific Side.
Waves for NorCal
We have a tropical region?
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Thursday’s Surf – More wind…wow imagine that
Thursday will be another windy day…it will be surfable at the protected spots but the exposed breaks are going to be pretty bumpy.
We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some minor background SW swell on Thursday.
The NW facing spots will have consistent shoulder-overhead+ surf but with sloppy/poor shape thanks to the short-period nature of the swell…oh that and the onshore NW winds that will be blowing near 25+ knots…yeah those are going to suck.
SW facing spots will be working off mostly the SW swell…which will be much smaller, mostly knee-chest high at the average spots. Standout SW breaks in Santa Cruz and the Central Coast will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the lower tides. Expect longer waits between waves on the lower tide…and a near swamp out once the high tide fills in.
If you can try and surf the protected spots…the winds will be just a bit too strong at the exposed breaks to make it worth paddling out.
Things do get better on Friday…South winds are expected to pick up, so look for cleaner conditions at many of the more exposed spots (like many in SF). Check back tomorrow for more info.
We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some minor background SW swell on Thursday.
The NW facing spots will have consistent shoulder-overhead+ surf but with sloppy/poor shape thanks to the short-period nature of the swell…oh that and the onshore NW winds that will be blowing near 25+ knots…yeah those are going to suck.
SW facing spots will be working off mostly the SW swell…which will be much smaller, mostly knee-chest high at the average spots. Standout SW breaks in Santa Cruz and the Central Coast will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the lower tides. Expect longer waits between waves on the lower tide…and a near swamp out once the high tide fills in.
If you can try and surf the protected spots…the winds will be just a bit too strong at the exposed breaks to make it worth paddling out.
Things do get better on Friday…South winds are expected to pick up, so look for cleaner conditions at many of the more exposed spots (like many in SF). Check back tomorrow for more info.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Wednesday's windswell - isn't it summer, what is with all the wind?
Wednesday isn't looking all that surfable for most spots...Santa Cruz (and protected Central Coast spots) will be cleaner and should have some small but rideable SW energy keeping it from going totally flat.
Most of our surf on Wednesday will be steep NW windswell...the SW facing spots and a few of the combo areas will have a new, but small, SW swell (200-220) sending in some inconsistent sets.
NW facing spots can expect more shoulder-overhead windswell waves with generally poor stacked up shape. You might be able to find a semi-rideable peak on a really good (and semi-protected) sandbar if you are lucky but overall it won't be worth driving very far to check it.
SW facing spots will be working off a mix of mostly leftovers and weak new SW swell. Those breaks will be mostly in the waist-chest high range but I expect a few slightly bigger sets to sneak through on the tide push. Again it won't be worth driving very far to get waves but if you live close enough and don't mind the smaller surf you might want to take a look at it.
Check out the wind forecast for Wednesday morning (8am)
As you can see it starts off pretty breezy...and you can bet it won't get any cleaner as we head into the afternoon. Definitely limit your surf checks to spots with at least some protection from the NW'erly winds.
Most of our surf on Wednesday will be steep NW windswell...the SW facing spots and a few of the combo areas will have a new, but small, SW swell (200-220) sending in some inconsistent sets.
NW facing spots can expect more shoulder-overhead windswell waves with generally poor stacked up shape. You might be able to find a semi-rideable peak on a really good (and semi-protected) sandbar if you are lucky but overall it won't be worth driving very far to check it.
SW facing spots will be working off a mix of mostly leftovers and weak new SW swell. Those breaks will be mostly in the waist-chest high range but I expect a few slightly bigger sets to sneak through on the tide push. Again it won't be worth driving very far to get waves but if you live close enough and don't mind the smaller surf you might want to take a look at it.
Check out the wind forecast for Wednesday morning (8am)
As you can see it starts off pretty breezy...and you can bet it won't get any cleaner as we head into the afternoon. Definitely limit your surf checks to spots with at least some protection from the NW'erly winds.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Tuesday's Surf - Winds, Windswell, and watching stuff burn
Tuesday will be a surf day at the protected areas...but in general it looks a bit bumpy/sloppy as the onshore winds increase out of the NW.
We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some fading SW energy. Most NW facing spots will see sloppy overhead+ surf...very windswelly stacked up shape and mostly blown out conditions through the day. The one exception to this will be the more exposed areas in the Central California/Santa Cruz areas...winds are forecast to be a little lighter so you might be able to pick off some of the windswell mix early in the morning before the bump gets bad.
SW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some rare chest-high+ sets on the tide push.
Personally I would try and stick to the springtime spots on Tuesday...breaks that can handle the NW winds, still pull in a little windswell, and will have a chance to mix in a touch of SW energy. There aren't a ton of them out there but if you hunt around (or already know where they are) then you have a shot at getting some, at least, rideable waves.
Those fires up that way have been crazy...hope you guys have been able to avoid the blazes.
We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some fading SW energy. Most NW facing spots will see sloppy overhead+ surf...very windswelly stacked up shape and mostly blown out conditions through the day. The one exception to this will be the more exposed areas in the Central California/Santa Cruz areas...winds are forecast to be a little lighter so you might be able to pick off some of the windswell mix early in the morning before the bump gets bad.
SW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some rare chest-high+ sets on the tide push.
Personally I would try and stick to the springtime spots on Tuesday...breaks that can handle the NW winds, still pull in a little windswell, and will have a chance to mix in a touch of SW energy. There aren't a ton of them out there but if you hunt around (or already know where they are) then you have a shot at getting some, at least, rideable waves.
Those fires up that way have been crazy...hope you guys have been able to avoid the blazes.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Vacation and Long-Range Surf Forecast
Hey gang I just wanted to give you a heads up...one of my best friends is being deployed to Iraq (he flies a Blackhawk for the Army), so I am finally going to take a couple of days off to hang out (and throw a party naturally) with him before he ships out.
So I am posting a long-range surf forecast for Northern California the next few days...If my liver is still working at the end of this weekend I should be back and have an update for Monday's forecast. See you then!
Here is the forecast...there are not a lot of changes over the next few days...just plenty of SW swell (and local windswell)
Thursday through Sunday are going to be some pretty decent surf days. Good weather will combine with weaker winds and open up more surfing options for the next few days.
In the water we will have a mix of SW swells (200-220) and some backing down WNW windswell. Most NW facing spots will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW breaks see some bigger sets on the tide push.
SW facing spots see a new SW swell hold into Thursday with chest-shoulder high+ surf at the average breaks. Standouts will have some head high and overhead sets. Friday will have another round of SW energy arrive and help to reinforce the swell from earlier in the week. Wave heights will remain similar in the chest-head high+ range for the best spots. Those waves will hold into Saturday before slowly fading through Sunday.
Winds look good over the next few days. Forecasts are calling for mostly light NW flow as high-pressure builds over the region. Look for NW flow around 5-10 knots for most of the North and Central Coasts during the mornings for the next few days. Afternoon winds stay lighter as well and only top out close to 15+ knots during the later parts of the day.
Summer spots will still be the most fun over the next few days but the combo breaks, particularly the combo beach breaks, will have some decent surf potential during the mornings. I would try and stick with the more protected breaks during the afternoons.
Anyway hope this gets you through the next few days...have a great weekend! (Ha I am on Vacation!)
So I am posting a long-range surf forecast for Northern California the next few days...If my liver is still working at the end of this weekend I should be back and have an update for Monday's forecast. See you then!
Here is the forecast...there are not a lot of changes over the next few days...just plenty of SW swell (and local windswell)
Thursday through Sunday are going to be some pretty decent surf days. Good weather will combine with weaker winds and open up more surfing options for the next few days.
In the water we will have a mix of SW swells (200-220) and some backing down WNW windswell. Most NW facing spots will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW breaks see some bigger sets on the tide push.
SW facing spots see a new SW swell hold into Thursday with chest-shoulder high+ surf at the average breaks. Standouts will have some head high and overhead sets. Friday will have another round of SW energy arrive and help to reinforce the swell from earlier in the week. Wave heights will remain similar in the chest-head high+ range for the best spots. Those waves will hold into Saturday before slowly fading through Sunday.
Winds look good over the next few days. Forecasts are calling for mostly light NW flow as high-pressure builds over the region. Look for NW flow around 5-10 knots for most of the North and Central Coasts during the mornings for the next few days. Afternoon winds stay lighter as well and only top out close to 15+ knots during the later parts of the day.
Summer spots will still be the most fun over the next few days but the combo breaks, particularly the combo beach breaks, will have some decent surf potential during the mornings. I would try and stick with the more protected breaks during the afternoons.
Anyway hope this gets you through the next few days...have a great weekend! (Ha I am on Vacation!)
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Wednesday’s Surf – A little cleaner but still on the fugly side
Wednesday will be a surf day at spots protected from the WNW winds.
We will have a solid mix of NW windswell and some peaking SW swell (190-220). Most exposed breaks will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf. Standout combo breaks that can really focus the mix of swells will have consistent head high and overhead sets. Best shape will be on the lower tides during the first half of the day.
Winds will start off on the light side…mostly W around 5-10 knots with the cleanest conditions in the Monterey/Santa Cruz area. W winds 15-25 knots move in during the afternoon.
SW facing spots in Santa Cruz, the North Bay, and at select areas along the Central Coast will be the best call tomorrow…they will have some protection from the W-NW winds, plenty of energy, and will likely have cleaner more surfable shape thanks to the longer SW swell periods. NW facing spots will be rideable early but the mix of shorter-periods and increasing winds will hamper shape by midmorning.
We will have a solid mix of NW windswell and some peaking SW swell (190-220). Most exposed breaks will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf. Standout combo breaks that can really focus the mix of swells will have consistent head high and overhead sets. Best shape will be on the lower tides during the first half of the day.
Winds will start off on the light side…mostly W around 5-10 knots with the cleanest conditions in the Monterey/Santa Cruz area. W winds 15-25 knots move in during the afternoon.
SW facing spots in Santa Cruz, the North Bay, and at select areas along the Central Coast will be the best call tomorrow…they will have some protection from the W-NW winds, plenty of energy, and will likely have cleaner more surfable shape thanks to the longer SW swell periods. NW facing spots will be rideable early but the mix of shorter-periods and increasing winds will hamper shape by midmorning.
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