Northern California Surf Forecast

Where did the forecast go?

2010-11-19T14:42:00.000-08:00

Hey guys…I know most of you already know where to find the forecasts now that they are over on Solspot.com…our new, much more powerful site.

But just in case some of you new visitors googled in…I wanted to make sure that you can find all of the new cool stuff. This blog isn’t updating the forecast anymore, all of that has been pushed over to the new site. Here are a few of the links that will hopefully help you find some waves (and hopefully good conditions too.)

For those of you that just wanted the forecast without any of the bells and whistles…The same ol’ Socal Forecast can be found here (this is the normal forecast for all of Southern California and generally gives you all the info you need to find surf for the next day)

http://surf.solspot.com/content/category/short-range-forecast

Here is the link to my long-range forecasts where you can find all the details you need to plan your surf sessions for the next several days, and some even longer range outlooks that can give you a heads up on incoming swells.

http://surf.solspot.com/content/category/long-range-forecast

Since the Southern California coastline is all jacked up (uh I mean unique)…we took the forecast and broke it down into a bunch of different “zones” that help to show how much swell, what sort of wind, and how the tides are going to affect the different regions.

Santa Barbara
Ventura
North LA
the South Bay
North Orange County
South Orange County
North San Diego
South San Diego

If that wasn’t enough we even put together a pretty comprehensive list of the surf breaks and beaches in each region. These aren’t surf reports, but they give very specific weather, wind, tides, water-quality, and a bunch of other cool stuff. When you first drop onto a spot page you will see “Current or Live” information, but if you click around you can find all kinds of cool stuff (like hour-by-hour wind forecasts going out for a full week…just the thing you need to plan a midday session if the winds lay down.) Check em out when you get a chance…

Santa Barbara County Spots
Gaviota State Beach
Arroyo Quemada
Refugio State Beach
El Capitan State Beach
Haskells Beach
Summerland Beach
Goleta Beach
Butterfly Beach
East Beach at Sycamore Creek
Hammonds Beach
Hope Ranch Beach
East Beach at Mission Creek
Sands at Coal Oil Point
Arroyo Burro Beach
Leadbetter Beach
Carpinteria City Beach
Carpinteria State Beach
Rincon Beach

Ventura County Spots
La Conchita Beach
Mussel Shoals Beach
Oil Piers Beach
Hobson County Park
Faria
Solimar Beach
Emma Wood State Beach
C-street
San Buenaventura Beach
Ventura Harbor South Jetty
Surfers Knoll
McGrath State Beach
Oxnard Beach Park
Hollywood by the Sea
Silverstrand
Port Hueneme Beach Park
Point Mugu Beach

North Los Angeles County Spots
County Line Beach
Leo Carrillo Beach
Will Rogers State Beach
Topanga State Beach
Malibu
Santa Monica Beach
Paradise Cove Pier
Zuma Beach

South Los Angeles County Spots
Venice City Beach
Dockweiler
El Porto
Manhattan Beach Pier
Hermosa Redondo Beach
Haggertys
Lunada Bay
Rancho Palos Verdes

North Orange County Spots
Seal Beach
Seal Beach Pier
Surfside Sunset Beach
Bolsa Chica State
Beach
Huntington Cliffs
Huntington City Beach
Huntington State Beach
Santa Ana River Mouth
Upper Jetties Newport
Beach
Newport Pier Blackies
15th Street Newport Beach
Wedge
Corona del Mar Beach
Laguna Beach Crescent Bay Beach
Laguna Beach
Aliso Creek Beach South Laguna

South Orange County Spots
Salt Creek Beach
Dana Point Harbor Baby Beach
Doheny Beach
Capistrano Beach
T Street San Clemente
San Clemente State Beach

North San Diego Spots
Church
Trestles
San Onofre State Beach
Old Mans San Onofre
Trails San Onofre
Oceanside Surfrider Way
Cassidy Street Oceanside
Tamarack Av Carlsbad
Ponto Carlsbad
Beacons Beach Leucadia
Moonlight Beach Encinitas
Swamis Beach Encinitas
Cardiff State Beach San Elijo
Seaside State Park
Del Mar San Dieguito River Beach

South San Diego Spots
Blacks Beach
La Jolla Shores
Windansea Beach
Pacific Beach Tourmaline
Mission Beach
Ocean Beach
Sunset Cliffs
Coronado Beach
Imperial Beach

Storm and Swell Alert – North Pacific is looking to get Nasty

2009-12-03T14:27:00.001-08:00

So I have been looking at the forecast charts and the swell models for the last few days (well lets not kid anyone…my near OCD has me looking at the charts all the time…and once I find a way I will probably have it fed directly into my brain). So like I said, I have been looking at the charts and there, right at the end of the forecast run, was this ugly mutant of a storm.

Usually I don’t put a ton of faith in the weather models when we move waaaaaaay out into the forecast run, they have a tendency to overcall things, and the timing is rarely ever correct…but in this case this storm definitely caught my eye.

Now, a couple of days later, the storm is still there on the charts and the swell models are still calling for it to crank out a LOT of swell…particularly for Hawaii (and the really, really unlucky people that live in the Aleutian Islands.) There is also a pretty large hunk of WNW swell that is supposed to head over to California, hitting NorCal pretty hard and throwing some large surf into Socal as well.

I am still a little “iffy” on the storm’s intensity and timing since it is not forecast to develop for another 4-5 days, which, for me, is still in the marginal area of the forecast run. Personally I would like to have the storm get a couple of days closer to developing before we start ringing alarm bells.

OK, that being said, lets look at what we can expect if this storm lives up to the current forecast.

- WEATHER NERD WARNING –

The storm itself is part of what is called a “complex low-pressure”, which basically means that it is a series of fronts and low-pressure centers that are all mixing together in one big mess. Usually with these complex lows you have an “anchor” low-pressure that sits up in the higher-latitudes and a series of intense storms that push through the mid-upper latitudes like they are riding some crazy merry-go-round.

In this case the anchor low is currently developing, and will likely move into place over the upcoming weekend…and even though it is the leading element of the bigger system it will be sending out waves as well (that will arrive a few days earlier than the larger system).

The most intense part of this complex low is when everything sort of collapses into one big low-pressure…which happens in about 4-5 days.

The current GFS pressure model is calling for the low pressure to drop to something close to 952mb, (which if this was a tropical storm/hurricane it would be something close to a category 3 system…which is why the Holy Crap is on that chart). As a frontal storm it means that winds will be close to 50-60+ knots near the core of the low. With those sort of winds, and all the pre-existing sea-state that gets kicked up by the preceding fronts, we can expect the storm to produce something that looks like this…and yes those are 40-foot+ seas.

Needless to say that even if the top 10-15-feet of that is just storm fluff there will still be a pretty significant swell forming from this storm.

END WEATHER NERD SECTION

Surfwise…Hawaii is forecast to receive the largest chunk of energy…likely something in the range of 18-20 feet of deepwater energy at 17-20 seconds, which can translate to 30-40-foot faces as it hits some of the Hawaiian reefs. The swell is pretty NW’erly in swell angle, which is good for spots like Jaws (Peahi). It looks like this swell will come up fast late on Dec 6th with the peak of the swell hitting overnight into Dec 7th. One thing that could suck is the winds…the trailing part of the storm’s front could show around the same time setting up W-NW winds which doesn’t do the north shores of any islands and good.

Northern and Central California will see a smaller but still impressive amount of energy that will hit North of Point Conception…something like 15-16 feet of deepwater swell at 18-20 seconds. This will show some energy late on Dec 8th but will likely peak throughout the day on 9th…the angle will be pretty WNW’erly (275-295) which means that it will hit a lot more spots with more energy than the NW swells usually do.

Southern California is forecast to see this swell showing some long-period energy, particularly at the more northerly counties of Santa Barbara and Ventura, by the afternoon on the 9th. The peak of the swell will hit throughout the day on the 10th. The WNW angle works better for Socal as well (280-300), so there will be less shadowing. At this point the swell looks good for easy head high to overhead surf at the average spots, and the top spots going several feet overhead. The best San Diego spots could see more consistent double-overhead+ sets.

Unfortunately weather looks like it will be an issue for all of California as well…a smaller cold front is forecast to bring onshore wind and rain about the same time as the swell peaks…hopefully this part of the forecast won’t be correct.

So that is all I have for now…keep in mind that this is pure forecast at this point…I will definitely keep you guys posted as the storm actually develops. Cross your fingers that it lives up to the forecast hype.

Swell Alert – Good sized W-WNW heading to the West Coast

2009-11-25T13:44:00.000-08:00

A strong new W-WNW swell will start moving into the California Coast late tonight, hitting the Northern and Central California regions well after sundown and eventually peaking in those regions on Thanksgiving.

Southern California will start to see some WNW-NW (280-300) long-period energy (18-20 seconds) later Thursday afternoon…eventually peaking throughout the day on Friday and holding into the weekend.

Like most of the intense storms we have seen so far this season this latest system is another mix of extra-tropical moisture from near Japan and a colder, higher-latitude, cold-front moving off of Siberia and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The rapid cooling of the warm-moist air-mass is helping to fuel the storm’s intensity, which has been pretty impressive…40-50+ knots of wind and 30-35 foot seas have been recorded (not just forecasted) in the key areas of fetch. Check out the latest JASON-1 satellite data…you can find this same stuff over on the http://www.stormsurf.com website…and as usual a bit thanks to Mark Sponsler for letting me poach a couple of charts now and then.

And here is the equally impressive WavewatchIII forecast chart…as you can see the two are pretty matched up.

Anyhoo…the pictures are pretty in all…but lets talk about some surf.

Northern and Central California

The new W-WNW swell (275-315) is already showing on the SE Papa Buoy (#46006)…and actually started to hit this outer buoy around 4-5 am this morning with a sizeable dose of energy in that 18-20-second swell-period range. Check out the buoy’s historical data…

This buoy is about 600 miles west of Eureka…and is generally considered the 1-day buoy for Northern and Central California, which means that it takes a swell in the 17- to 18-second period range about 23-24 hours to actually hit the Northern/Central Cal beaches. (This buoy is usually 36-40 hours away form Southern California, depending on the swell period…)

So based on the buoy data, and the JASON-1 pass, this is going to be a pretty solid swell for the exposed spots North of Point Conception. It will peak with 12-14-feet of deepwater swell, which generally translates into consistent well-overhead to double-overhead+ surf for the average spots. Top breaks will be more consistently in the double-triple overhead range. Best deepwater breaks, like Mavericks, will see steady 14-16-foot faces with some bombs coming in around 20’+ on the face.

Winds and weather are going to cooperate on Thursday…lots of light/variable winds in the morning with some spots seeing light/moderage offshore flow through the first part of the day. NW winds build in through the evening and strengthen more into Friday…if you are surfing this area, Thursday will definitely be the cleanest and likely the most fun day of this swell.

Check out the CDIP models for the area…

Southern California

Socal is going to see some new long-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) showing in the well exposed Santa Barbara and Ventura breaks late in the afternoon/evening on Thursday. The swell will fill in more overnight and will start to peak for all areas by midmorning on Friday.

Friday Morning…

This is another one of those swells where the majority of the energy is riding in around 290-300…but with enough (more) westerly energy from (280-300) to keep waves showing at the lesser exposed spots.

As this swell peaks we can expect the average WNW facing spots to see consistent chest-shoulder high surf with sets going head high…with a couple of bigger sets mixing in. The top NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and parts of San Diego, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going 2-3-feet overhead…and possibly bigger at those excellent breaks that can focus the long-medium period NW energy.

Winds look good for both Thursday and Friday…mostly light and variable through the mornings (a little more offshore on Thursday)…and then only moderate onshore flow around 10-15 knots for the late afternoon. Stronger NW winds build in later Friday evening.

Overall…this is looking like a pretty good swell, particularly if you like big waves and you live up North. For SoCal though…I think it will be fun, but due to the majority of the energy coming in from 290+, there will be some shadowing issues…and if you don’t stick the best exposed spots you won’t see the larger surf. It will be rideable almost everywhere that has exposure…so you don’t “have” to drive far to get waves, but if you are looking for the overhead stuff plan on heading to the normal winter standouts.

Surf Photos – November 7th and 8th 2009

2009-11-09T10:52:00.001-08:00

Here are a few shots sent in by one of our Nor/Cen California brethren…these were all taken at a partially exposed surf area over the weekend as the NW swell was peaking. Looks pretty darn fun considering that it wasn’t getting a full dose of the NW’er.

Something brewing in the South Pacific - Waves on the way

2008-07-15T18:13:00.000-07:00

So after watching the storm, and the swell it produced, for the last couple of days it looks like things are on track for a pretty decent run of swell throughout Central America, Mainland Mexico, Baja Mexico, and Southern California.

I revised the forecast a little from the one I issued a couple of days ago...not much size-wise but just a little on the timing.

Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico will be the biggest...look for easy well-overhead surf for most exposed areas. Top spots will go double-overhead and bigger as the swell peaks on the 18-19th. Deepwater breaks like Puerto Escondido will be even bigger, probably triple-overhead+ on the sets.

Northern Mainland Mexico will see the size drop off a bit...just due to the more southerly angle of the swell. Look for most spots in that area to see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range. Standout S facing spots will have sets going a few feet overhead as the swell peaks late on the 18 and into the 19th.

Baja Sur will see the swell move in and peak on the 19-20th...with the tip peaking a little earlier. Most spots will be running in the shoulder-overhead range as the swell starts really working. Standout spots, particularly breaks near the Tip, will have sets going a few feet overhead and a little bigger at the swell's peak.

Southern California and Baja Norte will have long-period energy from this S swell (170-190) showing late on Friday the 18th...this will build overnight and through Saturday, eventually peaking Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then slowly fading out on Monday. At this point we can expect the average S facing spots to see shoulder-head high+ surf while the standout S facing areas, particularly in North Orange County, see some overhead+ sets as the swell peaks. To top it off there will be some tropical energy still lingering around as leftovers from Elida slowly fade away...this energy should help to fill in the consistency gaps and put a lot of waves into the exposed areas throughout the weekend.

Make sure to check back...I will be talking about the swell some more in the Daily Update as we get closer...or I might bail to Mexico and leave you hanging...it is about 50/50 right now (just kidding...well sort of).

Here are some links to the previous posts

Post 1
Post 2

Waves for the weekend – Happy 4th of July!

2008-07-04T16:28:00.000-07:00

It looks marginally surfable this weekend…sort of fun since it is a holiday but nothing worth burning a ton of gas and time trying to get to the beach.

We are going to see the mix of steep NW windswell and background SW swells continue as we head into Saturday and Sunday. Most spots will continue to see surf in the waist-shoulder high range while the standout NW windswell spots see some bigger waves by the end of the weekend as winds increase in the outer waters.

Nearshore winds don’t look horrible. Spots north of SF will have NW flow around 5-15 knots with stronger gusts in the afternoon. Central Coast areas, including Santa Cruz, will be closer to 5-10 knots for the mornings and a little more bump by the end of the day.

Again I think it is worth paddling out if you live close to the beach, or are planning on killing some time at your local spots over the holiday weekend. Otherwise I wouldn’t put in a lot of effort getting to the water…it will be just as fun, and waaaaay less crowded as we head into next week.

Surfing on 4th of July - Some fog and a few little waves

2008-07-03T12:13:00.001-07:00

Friday looks surfable if only because it is a holiday and we should be spending it on the beach BBQ'ing anyways.

We will have a mix of mostly WNW windswell and some background SW energy. Most spots will continue to see waist-chest high surf while the better WNW facing beaches and good combo spots see some chest-shoulder high sets.

Winds are expected to be on the light side through the morning (along with more fog and light texture). Afternoon winds come onshore around 10-15 knots from the west.

Overall I don’t think it is going to matter a whole lot where you surf...the S facing spots will be cleaner but smaller and less consistent. NW facing spots will be mostly windswell and will have a bit more texture...so it is sort of a toss up. Personally I would plan on trying to get a decent little stretch of beach, break out the big boards, and eat a few too many hotdogs, or soydogs (you hippy), while celebrating the holiday.

Have a great holiday everyone...I will have an update for the weekend tomorrow!

Thursday's Surf - Clean but small

2008-07-02T17:16:00.001-07:00

Thursday will be rideable but not that exciting.

We will have a mix of leftover short-period WNW windswell and some minor pulses from the SW. Most spots will hold around waist-high while the standout combo spots that have a little more exposure to the SW will see some chest high+ sets.

Conditions look clean with mostly light W winds 5-10 knots on tap through the morning and some gusts nearly 15 knots by the afternoon.

I would plan on breaking out the longboard...or the fishy boards if you are on the small/light side. Basically you are going to want something that will help you generate a little speed in the small soft surf.

Summer spots will likely have the better shape and size...but overall they won't be that different from the WNW facing breaks...definitely not worth driving very far to try and find waves.

Tropical Storm Douglas - setting up some waves for the Tip of Baja

2008-07-02T17:15:00.000-07:00

Well we went from almost from 0-to-60 in the tropics over the last few days. We have had 3 named storms develop since June 27th and now the National Hurricane Center is forecasting another named system to develop in the next day or so.

Currently one of the three named storms is the former TD-4E which strengthened into Tropical Storm Douglas earlier this morning.

Check out the latest forecast run for TS Douglas

Waves for SoCal (yeah not so much)
As you can see from the red line TS Douglas is still out of the Southern California swell window but he is inching closer as he tracks to the NW at 8 knots. At this pace it looks like the surf-generating parts of the storm (the NE and SE) won't actually move into the swell window until some time later on Friday...unfortunately it doesn't look like Douglas is going to get much stronger so I don't think he will be much of a wave maker for SoCal...some small waves...but nothing to get real fired up about. If anything shows it won't be until we move into the weekend...likely later on Saturday and into Sunday.

Waves for Baja Sur
Baja Sur, in particular the Tip, is looking much better in terms of getting surf from TS Douglas. He is positioned only a few hundred miles from Cabo and while he doesn't have great overall wind speeds he is well-positioned and moving the right direction which really help generate swell. At this point it looks like the expose areas around the Tip and the East Cape will start to see new tropical S swell move in on Thursday afternoon and then peak into Friday. I expect wave heights to hold in the shoulder-head high range at the better exposed S facing breaks. Remember those sizes are at the Tip...wave height and set consistency will drop off the further north you move up the Pacific Side.

Waves for NorCal
We have a tropical region?

Thursday’s Surf – More wind…wow imagine that

2008-06-25T17:41:00.000-07:00

Thursday will be another windy day…it will be surfable at the protected spots but the exposed breaks are going to be pretty bumpy.

We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some minor background SW swell on Thursday.

The NW facing spots will have consistent shoulder-overhead+ surf but with sloppy/poor shape thanks to the short-period nature of the swell…oh that and the onshore NW winds that will be blowing near 25+ knots…yeah those are going to suck.

SW facing spots will be working off mostly the SW swell…which will be much smaller, mostly knee-chest high at the average spots. Standout SW breaks in Santa Cruz and the Central Coast will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the lower tides. Expect longer waits between waves on the lower tide…and a near swamp out once the high tide fills in.

If you can try and surf the protected spots…the winds will be just a bit too strong at the exposed breaks to make it worth paddling out.

Things do get better on Friday…South winds are expected to pick up, so look for cleaner conditions at many of the more exposed spots (like many in SF). Check back tomorrow for more info.

Wednesday's windswell - isn't it summer, what is with all the wind?

2008-06-24T17:16:00.000-07:00

Wednesday isn't looking all that surfable for most spots...Santa Cruz (and protected Central Coast spots) will be cleaner and should have some small but rideable SW energy keeping it from going totally flat.

Most of our surf on Wednesday will be steep NW windswell...the SW facing spots and a few of the combo areas will have a new, but small, SW swell (200-220) sending in some inconsistent sets.

NW facing spots can expect more shoulder-overhead windswell waves with generally poor stacked up shape. You might be able to find a semi-rideable peak on a really good (and semi-protected) sandbar if you are lucky but overall it won't be worth driving very far to check it.

SW facing spots will be working off a mix of mostly leftovers and weak new SW swell. Those breaks will be mostly in the waist-chest high range but I expect a few slightly bigger sets to sneak through on the tide push. Again it won't be worth driving very far to get waves but if you live close enough and don't mind the smaller surf you might want to take a look at it.

Check out the wind forecast for Wednesday morning (8am)

As you can see it starts off pretty breezy...and you can bet it won't get any cleaner as we head into the afternoon. Definitely limit your surf checks to spots with at least some protection from the NW'erly winds.

Tuesday's Surf - Winds, Windswell, and watching stuff burn

2008-06-23T21:27:00.000-07:00

Tuesday will be a surf day at the protected areas...but in general it looks a bit bumpy/sloppy as the onshore winds increase out of the NW.

We will have a mix of steep NW windswell and some fading SW energy. Most NW facing spots will see sloppy overhead+ surf...very windswelly stacked up shape and mostly blown out conditions through the day. The one exception to this will be the more exposed areas in the Central California/Santa Cruz areas...winds are forecast to be a little lighter so you might be able to pick off some of the windswell mix early in the morning before the bump gets bad.

SW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some rare chest-high+ sets on the tide push.

Personally I would try and stick to the springtime spots on Tuesday...breaks that can handle the NW winds, still pull in a little windswell, and will have a chance to mix in a touch of SW energy. There aren't a ton of them out there but if you hunt around (or already know where they are) then you have a shot at getting some, at least, rideable waves.

Those fires up that way have been crazy...hope you guys have been able to avoid the blazes.

Vacation and Long-Range Surf Forecast

2008-06-18T17:24:00.000-07:00

Hey gang I just wanted to give you a heads up...one of my best friends is being deployed to Iraq (he flies a Blackhawk for the Army), so I am finally going to take a couple of days off to hang out (and throw a party naturally) with him before he ships out.

So I am posting a long-range surf forecast for Northern California the next few days...If my liver is still working at the end of this weekend I should be back and have an update for Monday's forecast. See you then!

Here is the forecast...there are not a lot of changes over the next few days...just plenty of SW swell (and local windswell)

Thursday through Sunday are going to be some pretty decent surf days. Good weather will combine with weaker winds and open up more surfing options for the next few days.

In the water we will have a mix of SW swells (200-220) and some backing down WNW windswell. Most NW facing spots will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW breaks see some bigger sets on the tide push.
SW facing spots see a new SW swell hold into Thursday with chest-shoulder high+ surf at the average breaks. Standouts will have some head high and overhead sets. Friday will have another round of SW energy arrive and help to reinforce the swell from earlier in the week. Wave heights will remain similar in the chest-head high+ range for the best spots. Those waves will hold into Saturday before slowly fading through Sunday.

Winds look good over the next few days. Forecasts are calling for mostly light NW flow as high-pressure builds over the region. Look for NW flow around 5-10 knots for most of the North and Central Coasts during the mornings for the next few days. Afternoon winds stay lighter as well and only top out close to 15+ knots during the later parts of the day.

Summer spots will still be the most fun over the next few days but the combo breaks, particularly the combo beach breaks, will have some decent surf potential during the mornings. I would try and stick with the more protected breaks during the afternoons.

Anyway hope this gets you through the next few days...have a great weekend! (Ha I am on Vacation!)

Wednesday’s Surf – A little cleaner but still on the fugly side

2008-06-17T20:14:00.001-07:00

Wednesday will be a surf day at spots protected from the WNW winds.

We will have a solid mix of NW windswell and some peaking SW swell (190-220). Most exposed breaks will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf. Standout combo breaks that can really focus the mix of swells will have consistent head high and overhead sets. Best shape will be on the lower tides during the first half of the day.

Winds will start off on the light side…mostly W around 5-10 knots with the cleanest conditions in the Monterey/Santa Cruz area. W winds 15-25 knots move in during the afternoon.

SW facing spots in Santa Cruz, the North Bay, and at select areas along the Central Coast will be the best call tomorrow…they will have some protection from the W-NW winds, plenty of energy, and will likely have cleaner more surfable shape thanks to the longer SW swell periods. NW facing spots will be rideable early but the mix of shorter-periods and increasing winds will hamper shape by midmorning.

Tuesday's Surf - More freaking wind

2008-06-16T17:20:00.000-07:00

Tuesday is not looking like much of a surf day.

There may be a small window for NW facing spots early in the morning but onshore winds will tear it up for most breaks by the afternoon.

SW facing spots in Santa Cruz (and at other select areas along the Central Coast) will be the exception...they will be somewhat sheltered from the stronger NW winds and will continue to see healthy (if somewhat inconsistent) SW swell (200-225).

Most SW facing spots will see surf in the shoulder-head high range on sets while the standout SW breaks see some overhead sets mixing in on the lower tides.

NW facing spots will pull in a mix of sloppy short-period NW windswell. Most of those areas will see consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in at times as well. Shape will generally be poor thanks to the mix of jumbled up windswell and increasing onshore winds.

Your best bet is going to be the summer spots...but it probably won't be worth driving very far to get to one unless you are desperate for some semi-clean surf. Even the SW facing spots will get some wind on it by the afternoon so try and surf early enough to avoid the worst of the bump.

Finally here is a look at the CDIP swell models for the region…tomorrow will look very similar to what we are seeing today. It is worth noting though the Southern Hemi swell direction is really 200-220 (rather than 175)…for some reason CDIP has a tendency to average out the direction or get a bad data source and it gives an incorrect reading.

Waves for the Weekend - Look there is even more SW swell!

2008-06-13T16:51:00.000-07:00

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days...particularly Saturday and into Sunday morning.

Saturday is going to see a mix of steady SW swell (190-220) and steep NW windswell. Most spots will continue to see chest-shoulder high surf while the standouts (both NW and SW) see shoulder-head high+ waves.

Sunday there will actually be another SW pulse (200-220) joining the mix, overlapping the existing SW swell, all of which will blend with the steady NW windswell. Sunday expect a touch more size as the average exposed breaks build into chest-head high surf and the standout NW and SW facing breaks move back into the consistent head high and overhead ranges.

Weather/Wind looks a bit better on Saturday. There will be some light S winds and dense fog on tap through the morning and then only moderate onshore winds through the afternoon.

Sunday will have building NW winds arriving early in the day and then eventually strengthening to 20-25 knots by the afternoon.

Saturday I think you will be able to pick what sort of spot you want to surf...though you will probably find the best shape at the SW facing spots and good combo breaks. Sunday I would probably plan on sticking with the summer SW spots since the NW winds will be increasing. The more protected areas will have a longer surf window, particularly if you can move to the inside sections as the winds increasing through the afternoon. Looks like Santa Cruz may be the call on Sunday (probably Monday too).

Have a great weekend and an excellent Father's Day!

Friday (the 13th)’s surf – clean and playful

2008-06-12T18:21:00.000-07:00

Looks like the ocean is going to give us a bit of a break on Friday…conditions and swell are going to clean up and in general it looks like Friday is going to be a surf day.

In the water we are going to have a mix of backing of WNW short-period energy and a quickly fading SW swell.

Most NW exposed breaks will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high sets coming through on the low tides.

SW facing spots will have similar waist-chest high surf fairly consistently with a few shoulder high sets sneaking through at the standouts.

Conditions look much cleaner with light and variable S winds in the morning and only moderate W winds 10-15 knots pushing through by the afternoon.

While it won’t be pumping tomorrow it should be plenty of fun particularly on the low tide (and at spots that can pull in the mix of swells). Cleanest conditions will be in the morning so you might even think about penciling in a dawn patrol if you live close enough to a decent break.

Wednesday's Surf - More SW swell and spring winds

2008-06-10T12:29:00.000-07:00

Wednesday is looking a bit breezy but it will still be surfable at spots protected from the NW winds.

In the water we are going to see a mix of steep NW windswell and steady SW swell (200-220). Most spots will continue to see shoulder-overhead surf off the sloppier short-period NW swell. Summer spots will be close on sizes…but a little less consistent. Expect SW facing breaks to have waves in the chest-shoulder high range with sets hitting the head high and overhead range on the better tides.

Winds are forecast to start off out of the NW in the 10-20 knot range for the morning and then eventually top out close to 30+ knots by the afternoon.

Personally I would stick to the SW spots (if you have a choice)…and again I think there will be enough swell in the water to make it worth driving a little ways if you have to get on the road to find a cleaner break.

Tuesday's Surf - Getting funky now

2008-06-09T18:23:00.000-07:00

Tuesday will be a surf day for SW facing spots (mainly in Santa Cruz)...NW facing spots see consistent windswell but with increasingly poor conditions as the NW winds build in through the afternoon.

SW swell peaks on Tuesday with plenty of waves in the chest-head high range for the average exposed breaks. Standout summer spots will have sets going a couple of feet overhead on the tide push. Good combo spots will also have overhead waves off the mix of swells but may have wind issues as well if they are too exposed.

Look for WNW winds 10-15+ knots to build in through the morning and NW flow to top out near 25+ knots by the afternoon.

I would plan on surfing a SW facing spot on Tuesday...there is a lot of energy, plenty of waves, and you will have some protection from the wind. There is even enough size that, if you have the time, it would be worth driving to score at a summer spot.

Weekend Surf - Looking a bit breezy

2008-06-06T18:49:00.001-07:00

WNW winds continue to blow in the 15-30 knot range as we move through the weekend. In general surf looks on the poor side for most of the exposed spots (with some rare pockets possibly slipping during the early mornings).
SW spots will do better since they have a building SW swell and a bit more protection from the winds. Look for the average SW spots to see surf in the waist-chest high range while the standout SW spots will have some shoulder high+ sets on the tide-push.

I think that the summer spots in Santa Cruz, and maybe up in the North Bay, will be your best call this weekend. In general it won't be great even at those protected breaks...there will be a lot of wind in the outer waters, with some texture and bump making it to the beach in most areas. If you have to surf try and schedule it around the tide swing aiming to paddle out somewhere between the low tide trough and the peak of the high tide.

Have a great weekend!

Friday’s Surf – More wind…but with some waves mixed in as well

2008-06-05T17:24:00.000-07:00

Friday won’t be much of a surf day for most areas…but there may be a few rideable waves for the morning at the NW facing spots. The summer breaks in Santa Cruz should be rideable (but on the small side) for most of the day.

We will have a mix of strong but steep NW windswell and a slowly building SW swell. Most spots will have shoulder-head high surf from the windswell…but shape will be on the poor side thanks to the stacked up and sort of gutless nature of the swell.

Summer spots will be around knee-chest high on the morning tide push and should see some shoulder high sets sneaking through at times during the afternoon. Sets will be inconsistent but worth the wait if the spot isn’t too crowded.

Personally it doesn’t look like surf will be all that great tomorrow…the winds are going to howl during the afternoon (and should be blowing NW around 10-12 knots pretty much from sunup through mid-morning). If you have to surf I would try and get on it early, stick to the more protected spots, and keep an open mind. If you are lucky enough to have a SW facing spot nearby...then plan on getting your cleanest waves at those breaks.

Thursday's craptacular - yeah it looks pretty sucky again

2008-06-04T18:27:00.001-07:00

Thursday will be blown out and mostly unsurfable.

Lots of WNW-NW wind on tap again on Thursday...WNW winds will hold around 15-30 knots for most of the NW facing breaks, particularly the more open beach breaks around San Fran and spots to the north...actually the central coast looks pretty bad too...basically only the Monterey Bay area will see lighter winds and even those will still be around 10-15 knots for most of the day.

Needless to say that unless you want to surf super small longboard waves waaaaay on the inside of some really protected point in Santa Cruz then you might want to hold off trying to surf on Thursday.

Wednesday’s Slop – Getting Funky Now

2008-06-03T18:37:00.001-07:00

Wednesday will really NOT be a surf day. Onshore winds are going to turkey stomp conditions and it looks like even the most protected breaks are going to have issues.

Surf will be up but it will be almost completely windswell. Look for shoulder-overhead sizes but with really poor shape thanks to the steady onshore winds.

Look for W winds 15-25 knots through the morning along with some drizzle and patchy fog to make it even more appealing.

There may be some semi-rideable (and I use the term loosely) waves at the super-protected spots waaaaaay on the inside of some of the points in Monterey/Santa Cruz…but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Basically I wouldn’t plan on surfing even those spots unless you live right next to them (walking distance)…though if you lived that close you probably don’t care about surf forecasts that much.

Conditions do clean up later this week…there is chance at some better waves this weekend. Make sure to check back for updates.

Tuesday's Surf - Looking a bit bumpy

2008-06-02T18:52:00.000-07:00

It doesn't look like Tuesday is going to be much of a surf day. There will be some semi-rideable waves through Santa Cruz but most of the other regions will have wind issues throughout the day.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of NW windswell and background S-SW energy. Most NW facing breaks will have chest-shoulder high waves but with generally poor shape due to the short-period nature of the swell and texture from the onshore wind.
SW facing breaks will be on the small side with knee to maybe waist high waves on the bigger sets.

Winds will be onshore out of the NW around 10-12 knots through the morning (though Monterey Bay sees light and variable winds early). Look for onshore flow around 10-20 knots out of the NW by the afternoon.

If you live close to the beach I wouldn't totally rule out a quick driveby...or at least a camera check...but I definitely wouldn't waste a lot of gas trying to find waves.

Weekend Surf - More windswell, more wind, and a little bitty S swell

2008-05-30T16:38:00.001-07:00

Saturday and Sunday will be surfable but I am not sure that I would call them "surf-days"

We will have a mix of building but steeply angled NW windswell, some very small and inconsistent SW energy, and a new but shadowed S swell (180) showing in a few select areas.

We will also have to deal with the high tide hitting right in the middle of the morning and increasing onshore winds in the afternoon.

In general expect surf around waist high for most areas...maybe a few bigger sets at the top NW facing breaks by the afternoons. It will be mostly windswell so shape will be on the gutless stacked-up side. Look for small to almost flat sizes as the high tide peaks in the morning and again in the evening.

No real "best bets" this weekend...just try and find a few waves at your local spots...don't drive very far (or waste gas) looking for better waves because there won't be many to find.

Travel Swell Alert: Another large SW swell heading to Central America and Mainland Mexico

2008-05-30T16:37:00.001-07:00

We have got another strong storm brewing down near New Zealand that is looking to send a hefty SW swell to Central America and Mainland Mexico later this month.

California and Baja Mexico will also see some waves from this one but they will be quite a bit smaller.

Short-range forecasts are expecting this storm to be a beast...NOAA's WavewatchIII is predicting nearly 40-50' seas in the core of this system. Here check out this image from the swell model.

You can check out the animated version of this here

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.gif

Here is a shot of the swell (in swell period form) about 6+ days from this post.

As you can see it sent a pretty solid blast of energy towards Tahiti and then on to Central America and Mainland Mexico. You can also see the South Pacific Island shadowing that occurs on SW swells (it is always sad to see that gap in the swell line up perfectly with SoCal...damn islands).

Here is the animation run for the swell period...you can watch the swell move across the pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.2.gif

If you look close you can actually see that the bigger swell isn't the only one in the water...there are actually a couple of other SW swells that have been kicked out. This is great from a travel perspective...it means that you aren't putting all your eggs in one basket...so you will have a good chance to score a longer run of waves.

Ok enough about the storm here are the arrival times and details on the swell.

Central America and Mainland Mexico - Since the swell is pretty SW in swell direction (210-225) it is actually going to both regions about the same time. There is another smaller SW swell coming in from the same direction that arrives on June 6th and holds around for a couple of days. This first one looks good for head high and overhead surf at the standout breaks maybe even a few bigger sets at top spots. The bigger swell hits on June 9-10th with surf in the overhead to well-overhead range for most areas while the standouts, mostly in Southern Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America see double-overhead+ sets. Spots light Puerto Escondido will probably go bigger than that as well. There will be some shadowing for Costa Rica and Panama from the Galapagos islands...so expect smaller surf in those countries. One other thing to keep in mind is the weather...TS Alma just got done douching the area with rain...it may not be very easy to travel to the more remote spots.

Baja Sur - The first SW'er (205-220) hits Baja Sur around 7th and sets up some shoulder-head high surf for the standout breaks on the Pacific Side...the Tip/East Cape may be a bit shadowed so expect smaller less consistent surf through that area. The second, bigger, SW swell peaks on the 10-11th with more shoulder-head high+ surf for the average spots and inconsistent overhead+ sets at the standout breaks. If you head down this way try and keep in mind that while there will be decent waves in this area it will lack a lot of consistency...especially compared to a swell coming in from a more southerly swell direction. So plan on it being fun...but not all-time.

Southern California and Baja Norte - Socal will have the first SW'er (200-220) limp in around the 7-8th...not the greatest swell for SoCal but it will put some chest-shoulder high sets at the top breaks in South OC and San Diego. The second, larger SW'er hits on the 11th with average spots building into the chest high+ range while the standouts, again in San Diego and South Orange County, see shoulder-head high sets. (I am being a bit conservative...there may be a bigger set sneaking though at times).

Nor/Central California – It actually hits about the same time as SoCal so you would be seeing the first swell on the 7-8th and the peak of the larger swell around the 11th. This one should be good for some head high sets at the standout SW facing spots…and you won’t suffer as much inconsistency as SoCal.

Anyway that is what I got for now...we still have enough lead time to get a cheaper plane ticket (if you get on it in the next day or so.) As usual if you head out of town make sure to send me some pictures and let me know how it was.

Tropical Alert – Tropical Storm Alma

2008-05-29T11:26:00.000-07:00

Hey gang we got our first Tropical Depression last night, which has now turned into a Tropical storm, and may become a hurricane later today.

Before you get too excited look at where it is located…

It is pressed right up against Central America and it is forecast to move back over land before it dissipates, (which means no surf for us.)

Here is how the odds of getting swell of break out right now.

Chance of getting surf in SoCal – 0%

Chance of getting surf in Baja Sur – 0%

Chance of getting surf in NorCal - 0% (I wish I could put less than zero)

Chance of Central America getting slammed by heavy rain, lightening, and flash floods – pretty damn good

Anyway even though it isn’t a swell-maker I thought I would pass it along. It shows that there is potential in the EPAC for more storm formation. Cross your fingers that we get one to spin up in our swell-window before too long.

I probably won’t be issuing a ton of posts on each storm (just as they increase surf potential)…so if you need more information or just more consistent updated make sure to check out the National Hurricane Center website.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Thursday's Surf - A few more waves and some more wind

2008-05-28T19:41:00.001-07:00

Thursday will be a surf day...nothing huge or even that good...but rideable and clean in the morning.

There will be a mix of mostly leftover WNW energy and some background SW swell. Most spots will be around waist high while the standout combo breaks will have some chest high sets. Shape will be a bit boggy as we move through the tidal swings...look for the higher tides to nearly shut it down completely.

Winds are looking light through the morning, particularly through the Santa Cruz/Monterey area. The more exposed areas of SF and spots further north will have some onshore breeze around 5 knots.

Winds pick up for all areas in the afternoon. Look for NW flow around 15-20 knots through the late afternoon. Most spots will get pretty torn up through the second half of the day.

I would plan on brining the small wave gear to the beach on Thursday. Longboard and fishy shapes will be the best call. I would also plan on looking at spots with some really shallow sandbars or high tide reefs during the morning...there is going to be a lot of water still leftover from the higher tide that rolls through during the night. It will probably end up being a race between the dropping tide and the building wind as we head into lunchtime so try and balance the two and you might be able to pick off a few fun ones.

Another Fatal Shark Attack in Ixtapa Mexico

2008-05-28T19:40:00.000-07:00

I know I am a couple of days behind but I just caught this story on the interweb and thought I would pass it along in case some of you missed it.

According to news sources there have actually been 2 new shark attacks, one of them fatal, down around Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo coastline in Mainland Mexico.

If you remember Adrian Ruiz a surfer from San Francisco bleed to death from a shark attack while surfing the nearby area of Troncones Beach in April.

These latest attacks were reported at a beach called Pantla and at Playa Linda beach.

At Pantla Beach, Osvaldo Mata, was reported to have been mauled by a large 6' shark which bit off his hand and gouged his thigh. Apparently his brave friends paddled over and helped him to shore but he died of his wounds before medics arrived.

You can read more about the fatal attack here
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2430753720080524

The second attack, which occurred a couple of days later at Playa Linda, was on Texan Bruce Grimes. According to the news article the shark gave him a quick swim-by and then snagged his arm as he was trying to get back to the beach. After a bit of a struggle Grimes apparently was able get away from the shark and make his way to shore and eventually drive to medical help where he ending up with something close to 100 stitches. (Got to give the man credit for keeping his shit together enough to get to help.)

You can read more about the attack at Playa Linda Here http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN26346680

Man this is crazy...it really seems like 2008 has been a horrible year for shark attacks both domestically and internationally. (If some of you have seen a story about year to year frequency of shark attacks forward it on).

I love animals and nature as much as the next guy (if not more) but I am definitely starting to have issues with humans getting pushed back into the food chain.

Wednesday’s Waves – New swell to go with the cleanliness

2008-05-27T20:45:00.000-07:00

Wednesday will definitely be a surf day.

We will have a mix of SW energy, local WNW windswell (but without the winds), and some background WNW energy limping in from over the dateline. Most spots will have surf in the chest high+ range on the low tides. Standout breaks will be closer to shoulder high+ on the sets particularly by the afternoon as the swell mix strengthens. Again tides will be a bit of an issue so aim for the low-to-high tide push.

Winds are forecast to be light offshore throughout the region tomorrow so look for clean conditions (probably some fog here and there too) in the morning. W winds around 10+ knots do come onshore in the afternoon.

I think the combo beach breaks or really good focal spots will be the call tomorrow. There won’t be a ton of swell in the water so you need something to amplify the energy just a bit. A large shallow sandbar, reef, or pier/jetty would all be good places to check. The more protected areas, like the on insides of points, will be a bit smaller and will really suffer under the higher tides.

Tuesday’s Surf – Small summer fun

2008-05-26T17:47:00.000-07:00

Tuesday looks like a surf day. It may be mostly longboard sizes but it will be clean and rideable.

We will have a mix of small WNW energy and a blend of S-SW swells.

Most spots will run around waist high while the standouts see some chest high+ sets. It will be a bit inconsistent, sort of gutless, and a total burger at times (if you hit it on the wrong tides).

Winds look nice and light from the Northern Coast all the way down through Central Cal. Look for W winds 5 knots and below through the morning and marginally more onshore W wind for the afternoon.

Personally I would shoot for a fun little beach break or a really good break that still works as a longboard spot when it is small.

2008 East Pacific Hurricane Season – Update

2008-05-23T16:22:00.000-07:00

The Climate Prediction Center just issued a seasonal outlook for the 2008 East Pacific Hurricane Season.

As usual the actual “outlook” straight from the government is a bit on the dry side…but basically is breaks down to this.

The official opinion is that it will be a below average season. The CPC is estimating that there is a 60-70% chance of the following.

11-16 named storms (tropical storm level or higher)
5-8 hurricanes (Cat 1 or higher)
1-3 major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher)

Which while it is cool that they give specifics for the number of storms I am not really sure that it means that much when you factor in the 30-40% margin of error.

It is worth remembering that from a surf standpoint it isn’t so much the quantity of the storms but the quality. We have had plenty of good tropical surf seasons with only a handful of hurricanes…it is just that a lot depends on where the storms form and how they behave. With a few well placed storms and we can get a ton of waves. (Though the odds are better the more storms we get…yeah I love having to contradict myself in the same paragraph)

Here is a little post I put together a couple of weeks ago that has some info on what to look for…

2008 East Pacific Hurricane Season

You can read the official NOAA press release here http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080522_pacifichurricaneoutlook.html

Here is the actual seasonal outlook from the CPChttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html

Surf for Memorial Day Weekend - Cleaning up

2008-05-23T15:07:00.000-07:00

Looks like all three days this long weekend are going to be surf days.

The funky-chicken winds that have been blasting through the last few days are finally starting to back off and are expected to weaken even more as we head into the weekend. It won't be completely windless but most of the W-SW breezes will generally stay below 10 knots in the mornings and below 15 knots for the afternoon.

The only drawback is that the NW windswell and background S swell that have been generating all of the surf will be dropping fast over the next few days. Look for overhead+ stacked up surf to continue to show on Saturday but with smaller and smaller sets as we move throughout the day. By Sunday and Monday the NW facing breaks will be back to about shoulder high on sets.

The protected breaks will back off quite a bit as well...most of those areas will be in the waist-shoulder high+ range on Saturday and then hold around waist-chest high on Sunday and Monday off the mix of leftover NW energy and a weak new SW'er coming in from New Zealand.

It will be pretty cool and foggy along the coast over the weekend but just the fact that the howling winds have backed off should make it at least a little appealing for grabbing a session. I would keep an open mind about which spot you plan on surfing...you might find a little fun gem at breaks that have a bit more protection from the light southerly winds.

Thurday's Surf - From Bad to worse

2008-05-21T17:31:00.000-07:00

Seriously it is going to be an absolute mess tomorrow.

Santa Cruz may have a few waves in the really protected areas but the winds in the outer waters are expected to hit nearly 45-knots.

It isn't worth wasting much time on the forecast today...so I will just stick with the best bet...yep you guessed it...Santa Cruz. If I had to surf I would stick right up next to a high cliff somewhere but even then expect some chunk to the ocean surface and a nice ice cream headache from the winds blowing right into your ears. Sets will be around head high at the SC spots.
Everything else will be total poop.

Wednesday – Yeah it is going to be stupid windy

2008-05-20T21:04:00.001-07:00

Wednesday looks like a good day to do something else. WNW winds 15-35 knots will be on tap for most areas and even the most protected breaks will have NW flow close to 15-20 knots.

I don’t think there are going to many spots that can handle the wind tomorrow…maybe a couple of really protected areas in Santa Cruz but even those are looking a bit sloppy.

In general look for large NW windswell to overrun most exposed breaks. Well overhead but poor shaped surf will be on tap for most spots.
Really I would plan on “not-surfing” and probably catching up with the chores that you neglected over the weekend.

Tuesday’s Increasing Mess – thar blows the wind again

2008-05-19T20:22:00.000-07:00

Tuesday doesn’t look like much of a surf day. We will have S winds at the protected areas and onshore winds in the exposed areas. In general it will start off breezy and get blustery through the afternoon as a low-pressure approaches the coast.

There will be a lot of swell in the water. Increasing overhead but sloppy NW windswell arrives throughout the day as the local winds build. The windswell mixes with a strong but shadowed S swell and leftover WNW energy from the weekend. In general it looks like shoulder-overhead surf for most well exposed breaks (both N and S facing ones) and increasingly overhead surf by sundown at the NW facing spots.

Your best bet is the semi-protected breaks in Monterey Bay on Tuesday. Look for spots with some protection from S winds. This isn’t a full blown storm swell but it does have some characteristics that those have…so look for spots that like those short-period NW swells, S winds, and have a just a bit of protection and you should be able to score in the morning. All bets are off for the afternoon…winds shift onshore out of the W around 15-25+ knots. Not much protection from those.

2008 Hurricane Season

2008-05-16T22:43:00.001-07:00

May 15th is the official start of the East Pacific Hurricane season…or what I sometimes like to call “special happy time” but more frequently refer to it as “a royal pain in the ass for surf forecasters”. In celebration of the start of the season I thought that I would throw together a little info on East Pacific Hurricanes and how they affect the surf in Southern California.

Unless you have been living under a rock in the Himalayas (that doesn’t have cable or satellite TV) you probably have at least an idea of what a hurricane is…so I won’t spend a ton of time going over the storm itself…here is the official version from the National Hurricane Center…

“The terms "hurricane" and "typhoon" are regionally specific names for a strong "tropical cyclone". A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation

Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 34 knots are called "tropical depressions" Once the tropical cyclone reaches winds of at least 34 knots they are typically called a "tropical storm" and assigned a name. From there when winds reach 64-knots then they called “hurricanes” (or cyclones or typhoons…depending on what geographic region you are in).”

The official version is a little dry considering they are trying to describe potentially one of the most destructive releases of latent heat energy that can occur in our atmosphere…but hey that is government for you…I am sure that they could describe a nuclear explosion in a way that would make you fall asleep after the third paragraph.

For this little lesson…first I am going to throw down a little geography and terminology, because that is the way that I roll, and it will help our conversation about surf make more sense later, particularly when we start dealing with active storms. Anyway here is a little of the geography…

Our region is a little “special”
When you look around the world there are generally 7 areas that have consistent cyclone activity but our special little corner in the east North Pacific actually boasts an extra-bonus feature…our storms have a tendency to move away from land and generally pose less of a danger to life/limb/and property. Don’t get me wrong…they are still ass-kicking weather systems and will sometimes spin back and wreak havoc through Mexico and Central America...but they are quite a bit less likely to do so than the other tropical regions.

This is sort of a catch-22 from a surf standpoint…hurricanes have a tendency to send the strongest swell along their movement path, which means that while we don’t have storms make landfall, (and come along and stick it in sideways like they do to the East Coast sometimes), we also don’t always get the best swell that we could from these systems.

The Layout
From a geographic standpoint the East Pacific tropical region runs from the west Coast of Central America, down to the equator, and then out to the 140W longitude line. The northern border is a little more flexible since storms have a tendency to die off as they hit cold water.

The incubator
The Gulf of Tehuantepec and the surrounding areas have a tendency to be the storm incubator of the EPAC tropics. The mix of coastal geography, local wind patterns, and extremely warm water provide a good catalyst for storm formation. In most tropical seasons you can track a number of storms back to this little caldron that is located down along the coast of southern Mainland Mexico.

The ITCZ
The ITCZ is short for “Intertropical Convergence Zone”, which is good that they gave it an acronym because writing the full term gets old fast. The ITCZ is an area where two different cells of air circulation meet along the surface of the ocean and push skyward. This convergence has a tendency to create a band of thunderstorms and tropical systems that are the early stages of tropical waves (and eventually full tropical cyclones). Anyway the ITCZ is more of a fluid entity than a fixed weather feature…oh it always exists…but it can move around and change intensity as different factors influence it. The ITCZ is important in the fact that it provides a low-wind zone for tropical storms to start their cyclonic rotation without being disrupted. From a forecast standpoint it is important to keep track of the ITCZ…the further north it drifts the better of a chance you have a storm formation…to close to the equator and you lose the Coriolis Effect.

Sea Surface Temps
When it comes to forecasting surf from hurricanes it is always important to keep an eye on sea-surface temperatures. Hurricanes need some very specific conditions to form and maintain circulation. One of the biggest factors is the ocean temps. The general rule of thumb is that a storm needs sea-surface temps to be at least 80-degrees Fahrenheit (or around 27-degrees Celsius)...and that temperature needs to extend down about 50-meters below the ocean surface. The storm doesn't actually draw that much energy from the water but it is more about the water temperature's effect on the air-mass directly above it. (this sort of gives me a headache...so I leave the heavy mental lifting to the NHC's big brains)

Due to limitations of public satellites it is hard to get a read on ocean temps beyond what you can see on surface but you can sort of guestimate where the pockets of storm potential water is.

Once a storm has moved out of the warmer waters it starts to lose power as its convection fails. This also means a lot of the storms winds start to lift up off the surface of the ocean and swell production is cut off, which is obviously a good thing to keep an eye on if you are trying to score surf from a hurricane.

Upper level steerage and sheering winds
On some levels hurricanes are actually pretty fragile weather systems...we already talked about their need for warm water/airmass which affects them from a surface standpoint...well they also need specific conditions to occur in the upper level of the atmosphere in order to start circulation. In particular they need some light/moderate winds blowing through the higher altitudes to sort of spark up the circulation that eventually becomes the full-scale cyclone convection. If these winds are too light then the storm won't spin up. The adverse is true as well...if the winds are too strong they will shear the top of the storm off, breaking the balance needed to maintain rotation.

One thing to watch is how the large scale wind patterns are moving through the tropical region...sometimes a storm will start in a favorable area only to move into a region that has more wind moving in the upper levels and it will begin to shear...and again once the storm starts to unbalance the surface winds get disrupted and swell production is shut down.

La Nina and El Nino (its Spanish for "the nino"!)
You hear a lot about El Nino/La Nina patterns in connection to hurricanes...and they do have a strong influence on the season as a whole...but it is good to think of it in terms of "potential" rather than a guaranteed stellar surf season. Both of these patterns represent the difference in SST's for the East Pacific region. An El Nino year means that the SST's are above average and the La Nina means that they are below average. The thing to keep in mind that there is quite a difference between an El Nino that is 0.5 degrees warmer than average compared to an El Nino that is a whopping 4+ degrees warmer. The amount of energy that it takes to heat a large area of the ocean is staggering and the more heat that is poured into it the more energy it will have to release later to equalize itself.

Here is the official definition from the Climate Prediction Center...

El Niño - El Niño, a phase of ENSO, is a periodic warming of surface ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific along with a shift in convection in the western Pacific further east than the climatological average. These conditions affect weather patterns around the world. El Niño episodes occur roughly every four-to-five years and can last up to 12-to-18 months. The preliminary CPC definition of El Niño is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period), averaged over three months, greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5oC in a region defined by 120oW-170oW and 5oN-5oS (commonly referred to as Niño 3.4). El Niño, which would appear off the coast of Peru around Christmas time, is Spanish for "the boy" referring to the Christ child.

Basically when you break it down...an El Nino year means warmer water in the East Pacific Tropical region...more warm water means more potential hurricanes. La Nina means cooler water and less potential hurricanes…(Funny thing about that is the opposite is actually true for the US East Coast. El Nino means a less active tropical season while a La Nina means a more intense one. Damn can’t they make anything easy.)

And finally...this picture sums up the El Nino perfectly...

Ok enough science...lets get on to the surf.
Does your head hurt...yeah mine too...lets talk about the fun stuff...the surf that a hurricane can kick out.

Hurricane surf is pretty special...it has a tendency to be punchy, stacked up, and at the right spots...really hollow. It also can sneak in from swell angles that we could never get from normal southern hemi storms, which in turn lets it hit spots that are normally small and sheltered.

If you have been surfing for a few years you probably have a hurricane surf story...everyone does...they sort of go "remember hurricane 'blank'? Man I surfed this longboard-spot/reef/harbor-entrance/evil-lair-point-break...it was like double overhead and reeling!"

The thing is that hurricane swells feel magical...they usually hit over the summer when the water is warm and clear and the swell is so consistent that you surf until your arms want to fall off. When you start thinking about Hurricane swells in the terms of the waves that you will surf of course you want to score more and more of it.

Getting Hurricane Surf
When you get down to brass tacks hurricanes are similar, but smaller, versions of mid and upper latitude storms...so the same principles apply to them when it comes time for them to generate swell.

You may want to brush up on how waves are made...you can read my barely coherent ramblings on that here.

Here are the basic things that you need to keep in mind when forecasting surf from hurricanes.

Storm Size - The bigger the storm the larger the fetch, the more fetch the more potential swell.

Intensity - The greater the wind speeds the bigger the surf...generally goes hand in hand with storm size since the bigger storms have a tendency to have more intense wind speeds than the smaller systems.

Movement track - You want a storm to be moving toward you. Hurricanes that are moving are sort of like flashlights...the swell is sent out the along the movement track. So the longer the storm is moving toward your location the more swell (and bigger waves) you can expect.

Movement Speed - This is tied to movement track...a storm can move too fast and sort of outrun the swell it is producing, which limits both the quality and quantity. A slower moving storm will have time to build a better sea-state, which lets it build a better swell. A perfectly paced storm will actually create a "travelling fetch" which will let the storm pour more energy into waves that it has already created...basically building the swell without the need for faster winds.

Storm Track vs Storm Speed
Ideally if you want to get great hurricane surf you want the storm to be moving toward you at a slow to moderate pace. Now actually getting a hurricane to head your direction isn't all that probable...it is sort of like herding cats, (well if the cat was 300 miles across, didn’t respond to the slightest human stimuli, and could smash everything that you care about into tiny pieces…then yeah it would be just like that…where was I? oh storm movement) this is where good storm speed can help compensate for a bad storm track.

If we go back to the flashlight analogy...the faster a storm moves the tighter the beam of swell becomes. If a storm is stalled or moving at a very slow rate it is sending out energy in all directions but as the storm speed picks up the swell energy tightens along the movement path. This image is a good illustration of what I mean.

You can still get swell from a hurricane even if it isn't headed directly towards your location but the system needs to be moving at the correct speed in regard to your position.

These are good rules of thumb concerning storm speed.

1. The Storm is moving away from your location: You want the speed to below 2-knots
2. Storm is moving along a path 90-degrees perpendicular to your location: You want the speed to below 5-7 knots (depends on the storm size...a wider storm can be moving a touch faster).
3. Storm generally toward your location: You want the movement speed to be below 8-10 knots.
4. Storm is coming to punch your ticket and drive up your homeowners insurance: Then you can have storm speed up to 15-17 knots and still get swell...any faster and the system starts to outrun the swell energy…and probably your ability to escape to safety. (Man aren’t I cheery today)

Seasonal expectations
While you can get hurricane swell at almost any time during the tropical season... Southern California definitely sees better hurricane swell activity as we move through the middle to end of the season. The reason for this is more due to the nature of the seasonal wind patterns than anything.

During the "Early Season", which runs from the spring into early summer, tropical systems have a tendency to track straight from east-to-west and move out into the open ocean.

As you get into the middle of the season, which is summer into early fall, the storms start to make a slight jog northward and eventually hook back toward land. This hook starts to line up the movement track with SoCal making it more likely for us to get waves.

Finally at the end of the season most storms are performing the “hook” sometimes right after they have formed. This is one of the more dangerous times to be along the Pacific side of Baja since storms can spin back toward land relatively quickly. They can cause a lot of damage even making landfall as a tropical wave or depression…remember there is a lot of dry land in baja that can’t hold a lot of water…so even a couple of inches of rain (or say the 30 inches a tropical storm can drop in a short period) can cause major flooding.

Naturally you want to be somewhere in the middle/end of the season where the storms have a chance of "aiming" towards SoCal and the Pacific side of Baja.

Swell Windows and Swell Directions
Swell windows are pretty darn important to Hurricane swells...more so than the bigger frontal systems. First off a hurricane is a smaller storm so the fetch is narrower and the swell is more focused...this compounded by the fact that hurricane swells generally have shorter swell-periods which don't wrap around corners as well as long-period swells. So if the storm is out of your swell window you are sort of out of luck...I have seen swells where the angle of the swell will cut off surf like a knife-blade as you move a 1/4 mile up a beach.

Generally Orange County and LA have the most SE’erly swell windows and can take in swells from 155-160 degrees…some of the other spots like north San Diego, Santa Barbara, and Ventura start seeing swell around 170. Other very protected areas like the South Bay need a more traditional SW swell around 200 degrees (which isn’t all that common for a tropical systems.

My half-assed opinion on the 2008 tropical season.
Ok this post is way to freaking long...so if you made it all the way down to this part then you are probably at work, in class, or prison...somewhere where you have a lot of time on your hands.

Anyway I will try and sum up quickly...looking the long-range climate data from the CPC and the NHC it looks we may have a slower than average season. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is calling for weak La Nina condition for the EPAC for May, June, and July, which means less warm water available for storm production. Dr Grey over at the University of Colorado is calling for a stronger season in the Atlantic which usually indicates a slower season in the Pacific as well. They do expect the La Nina to weaken later in the summer, potentially increasing tropical storm activity as we head into late summer and early fall.

Personally, and my opinion of long-range climate models isn't really work all that much...I would basically expect a slow start to the tropical storm season, less major hurricanes and fewer named storms for the next few months. As we reach late summer this should turn around and become more active...setting up better swell potential as we head into the second half of the tropical season.

That is all I got for now...make sure to keep checking the blog I will probably talk about each tropical system as it forms throughout the season...either that or I will drink more this summer...I would say the odds are about 50/50 right now.

My favorite Hurricane Links
Here are a few of my favorite links to hurricane related stuff...I will drop these on my link list as well.

Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

National Hurricane Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

NHC Satellites
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Navy Research Laboratory Monterey
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

University of Hawaii - Tropical Page
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/

FNMOC Ensemble Forecasts (good place to see upper level winds)
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html

NOAA Sea-Surface Temps
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/contour.html

Surf for the weekend – plan on some more surf

2008-05-16T18:39:00.001-07:00

Saturday and Sunday will be surf days…but look for bigger and more consistent surf on Saturday.

We will have WNW energy and background S swell showing through the weekend. The WNW’er will actually be fading slow while the S swell fills in through the background.

Most NW facing spots will have sets going shoulder-overhead on Saturday with the top spots seeing some sets going overhead+. The more protected spots will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high sets sneaking into the top combo spots.

Sunday looks a touch smaller as the WNW’er continues to fade. Expect the overhead+ surf at the standout NW facing spots to drop off while the protected spots, mostly in Santa Cruz, drop to about shoulder high+ on the sets.

Winds look ok through the weekend. Look for light and variable winds through Saturday and Sunday morning with NW winds around 10-15 knots building in through the afternoons.

Basically I think you will get to pick your poison this weekend…plenty of spots to choose from thanks to the light winds and continuing WNW swell. Keep in mind that with the weekend that spots will likely be a bit more crowded…you might try and check spots like beach breaks where you have a little more room to spread out before you hit up the more popular point/reef breaks.

Friday's Surf - It is clean and there is WNW swell...what are you reading the computer for!?!

2008-05-15T17:24:00.001-07:00

Hell yes Friday will be a surf day. Probably one of the better spring surf days that we are going to have.

New WNW swell (280-300) arrives and peaks in the afternoon and winds will remain light most of the day.

Look for most NW facing breaks to see consistent shoulder-overhead surf while the standout breaks see some sets going a couple of feet+ overhead.

More protected breaks will still be pretty fun with a lot of waves rolling through in the chest-head high range for most of the day.

You basically get to pick your spot tomorrow...beach breaks should be fun as well as the reefs/points. So just think about what you want to surf...chances are you will get a few fun ones.

Surf on Thursday - Cleaning up...but waiting for the new swell

2008-05-14T17:17:00.000-07:00

Thursday will be more of a surf day than we have seen in a while.

Local winds finally start to back down and we should actually see some surfable conditions at the NW facing spots during the morning.

We will have a mix of steeper NW windswell and some background S swell. Most NW facing breaks see more shoulder-head high+ surf with semi-stacked up and windswelly shape thanks to the short-period nature of the swell. S facing spots will be in knee-waist high+ range on the better sets.

Winds will start off light for most of the exposed areas blowing out of the N around 5-15 knots in the morning...shifting a tad more NW by the afternoon.

Santa Cruz areas see light E winds and clean conditions through most of the morning.

Looks like there may be a touch of that new WNW swell starting to push in late in evening...right around sundown...it isn't really the main push of swell but just some smaller forerunners coming out of the lead elements of the storm. I expect that we will have a bit more consistency and a little more size as we head into the evening...but I am still looking for a bigger pulse of WNW energy to arrive as we head into Friday.

Travel - Swell Alert - New S-SE swell for Southern California and Baja

2008-05-14T13:03:00.000-07:00

There has been an evil-looking nugget of a storm spinning down in the SPAC over the last few days.

QuikSCAT was recording nearly 50-60 knots of wind in an area of fetch aimed mostly towards Baja and, to a lesser degree, Southern California

Here check out this chart

This is a close up of the storms core...see the black wind barbs...the ones with the little triangles indicate 50 knots of wind...the ones with the triangle and extra lines means +50 knots (10 knots for each full line).

And here is the lovely, yet super small, WWIII visual product viewer...along with my usual incredibly artistic arrows. (man I need to get adobe illustrator on my computer at work...photoshop is killing me).

Anyway this storm has been holding in place for a few days which is pretty good for swell production. It actually started off a little less intense...so it pushed out some weaker S swell before it set up a bigger lump of energy.

From a surf standpoint Baja Sur, in particular the Tip/East Cape areas, will see the biggest part of this swell.

SoCal will see a smaller, but still fun, version of the same swell at the good S facing breaks once the swell moves up into our area.

Here are the more specific details...

Baja Sur
Baja will see this new S-SE swell (170-185) arrive on Sunday the 18th and fill in slowly through the day. Eventually the swell peaks on Monday and Tuesday (May 19-20) with surf in the shoulder-overhead+ range for most exposed breaks and top standout areas see sets going 2-3' overhead at times. It should be a fairly consistent swell in the Baja Sur/Tip area thanks to the open swell window...but expect size to drop off a touch as you move up the Pacific side.

Southern California
SoCal will see this new S-SE swell (170-180) arrive on Monday May 19 and build slowly at exposed breaks throughout the day. It will actually be overlapping a smaller pulse of S swell already in the water so it should be pretty fun even though the bigger swell won't really get going through the afternoon. The S-SE'er will actually peak Tuesday and Wednesday (May 20-21). Look for the average exposed breaks to see chest-shoulder high+ surf. Standout spots, mostly through Orange County and a few other select areas, see head high and overhead sets. Weather (at least at this point) is looking good for this swell...cross your fingers that the wind forecasts hold together.

Wednesday’s Surf – Waiting till Friday

2008-05-13T22:03:00.001-07:00

Wednesday the winds will back down a touch…but not enough to make it much of a surf day outside of the Santa Cruz area.

WNW winds will continue to move down the coast around 15-25 knots most of the day. Santa Cruz and the Monterey Bay area will see lighter N winds around 5 knots in the morning but even those will speed up in the afternoon.

Waves will be in the chest-overhead range at NW facing spots but with poor shape due to the strong winds. Look for S facing spots to be around chest high+ on inconsistent sets.

Not to tell you anything that you couldn’t figure out on your own (but hey I am a belt and suspenders sort of guy) but your best bet is to hit the protected areas…the more open spots will continue to spring thrashing. Oh and if you didn’t read the post about the WNW swell for the end of the week make sure to take a look.

WNW Swell Alert: North Pacific gets off another shot of WNW swell before the summer!

2008-05-13T16:06:00.001-07:00

We have a decent sized WNW swell (290-300+) heading into Northern and Central California later this week. Looks like weather will be good too. I would start working on your "sick" excuses for ditching work.

The North Pacific storm track just won't quit this year...every time it looks like it is about to kick the seasonal bucket it spins off another storm. This latest system formed to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands and is setting up fetch for Northern and Central California as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska.

While it is weak compared to "normal winter" reckoning it is still is very healthy considering that it is May. You can see on the QuikSCAT image below that it is showing winds in the 35-45 knot range right in the key areas of fetch.

Here are the details on this swell...

Northern California
Look for the WNW swell from this storm to arrive throughout the day on Friday and then peak overnight into Saturday. Wave heights will be consistently in the head high to overhead+ range while the standout NW facing spots see well-overhead sets.

As a huge bonus winds and weather are going to cut us a break as well...the springtime gale that we have had for what seems like forever is finally going to back off right as this swell hits. Friday and Saturday will have clean morning conditions and only moderate onshore flow below 15 knots in the afternoons.

Southern California
This swell isn't aimed very well for SoCal...we will see some energy but the brunt of the WNW energy (290-300) will be blocked by Point Conception.

Look for this new WNW-NW to arrive through the day on Saturday, peak late in the afternoon and hold into Sunday. Like I said above SoCal will be much smaller...mostly knee-chest high at the exposed breaks, but we may see a touch of S-SW swell in the water as well which would allow a few peaky sets to sneak through at the combo breaks.

Make sure to keep an eye on the offshore 49059 NOAA buoy...we should start to see some new energy showing around midday/evening on Thursday.

Tuesday's Surf - F-ing wind!

2008-05-12T16:40:00.001-07:00

I sound like a broken record...but it is going to be another windy, mostly blown out day along the North and Central Coasts on Tuesday.

Is it not going to be much of a surf day, NW winds blow around 15-25 knots for most areas and a few of the more exposed breaks may have gusts nearing 30 knots. There will be some overhead NW swell hitting the open beaches but shape will be poor throughout the day.

The one exception is Monterey Bay, Santa Cruz in particular, is going to see light N winds through the morning. So spots with some protection from the N wind direction will start out cleaner than most of the region. Unfortunately those protected spots will also miss out on most of the swell. Expect these protected areas to see surf in the knee-waist high range with a few chest-shoulder high waves sneaking through at the standout combo breaks.

As for your best bet...it is going to be surf Santa Cruz early...or plan on doing chores/work/school if that is not an option.

Long-range is starting to paint a different picture...looks like we could have some decent WNW swell AND CLEANER CONDITIONS later this week. Check back I will likely post a swell alert later this evening.

Happy Mother's Day!

2008-05-11T07:30:00.000-07:00

I just wanted to say happy Mother's Day to all the surf Moms out there!

Have a great Day!

Hopefully your family buys you that new swallowtail fish you have been wanting! (or at least takes you on that trip to Costa Rica)

Wind for the weekend - yes it will continue to blow (insert joke here)

2008-05-09T16:28:00.000-07:00

The spring winds and sloppy conditions continue as we move through the weekend.

The gale force winds continue to howl in the outer waters and plenty of the breeze will make it to the beach as well.

Look for a mix of NW windswell and background S-SW swell for both days. NW facing spots see poor overhead surf. S facing breaks will have some knee-chest high surf on Saturday and maybe a touch more size on Sunday.

Neither day is looking particularly surfable...unless you stick close to the summer spots and those will be a bit bumpy even with the protection, not to mention crowded because every other spot will be blown out.

Personally I wouldn't plan on surfing...but if you live close to a S facing spot it may be worth checking a couple of times in the morning...you might be able to get a short session in.

Gale Force Friday – Yeah you are going to want to “not surf”

2008-05-08T18:28:00.000-07:00

Friday looks pretty tore up.

There may be a few rideable (being a relative term of course) waves at the protected areas but there are gale force winds moving through the coastal waters and eventually some of that will spill into all but the most sheltered breaks.

NW facing spots will be total poo. Strong onshore winds and sloppy well-overhead surf will be on tap for almost all exposed areas.

SW facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high range on the best sets but may see some slop coming around the “corner” so to speak that could add some bigger sizes.

If you have to surf hit up the summer spots early in the morning and then get out of the way and start drinking as the wind comes onshore the rest of the day.

Jake Shimabukuro Plays at the Surfing Heritage Foundation

2008-05-08T10:10:00.000-07:00

Hey guys, my friend Casey over at the Surfing Heritage Foundation passed on a press release for another cool event, and I thought I would pass it on to you. It might be a bit far for you NorCal guys to get down to it...but it is over the holiday weekend and if you are going to be in SoCal alreay it may be worth checking it out.

This time it is a concert by ukulele virtuoso Jake Shimabukuro with the proceeds going to the "preservation of surf culture for the education and appreciation of current and future generations."

Like many of their events it sounds like a good time...and it is always sweet to go and check out all the historical boards and gear that they have on display.

Here are the details for the event (and the press release).

Jake Shimabukuro Plays at the Surfing Heritage Foundation

SAN CLEMENTE, Ca. -May, 2008. The Surfing Heritage Foundation will be hosting ukulele virtuoso Jake Shimabukuro on Sunday, May 25th. The concert will be held at the Foundation’s cultural heritage facility located at 110 Calle Iglesia, San Clemente, CA 92672. Show time is 7:30 pm and doors open to the general public at 6:30 pm. General admission is $25. VIP tickets, which include dinner, drinks and premiere seating, are available for $75. Proceeds from the concert go to the Surfing Heritage Foundation and their ongoing work of preserving surf culture for the education and appreciation of current and future generations.

Jake Shimabukuro (she-ma-BOO- koo-row) is fast becoming recognized as one of the world’s top ukulele musicians. His virtuosity on the four-stringed instrument defies label or category, playing jazz, blues, funk, classical, bluegrass, folk, flamenco, and rock, Jake’s mission is to show everyone that the instrument is capable of so much more than Hawaiian music. Jake has played and recorded with a treasure trove of other musicians including; Jimmy Buffet, Diana Krall, Fiona Apple, Bobby McFerrin, and Ziggy Marley. He has also appeared on The Late Show with Conan O'Brien.

Also on the bill for the evening is surf comedian Jaz Kaner, a silent auction featuring artwork and photography donated by Art Brewer, Ken Auster, Tyler Warren, Celine Chat and Jay Adler, and two special Kala Ukulele’s hand painted by artists, Wade Koniakowsky and Drew Brophy.

Surfing Heritage Foundation would like to recognize title sponsors, Heritage Global Solutions and Hoffman California Fabrics. Also supporting the event is: Crevier BMW & Mini, Rainbow Sandals, and Pacific Coast National Bank. In-kind support from; SC Times, Surfer Magazine, Karl Strauss Brewery, Barefoot Wines, Kala Ukuleles, Lost Energy Drinks, and Wahoo’s.

For more information on tickets, call (949) 388-0313 or email linda@surfingheritage.org.

You can also check out the Foundation on their website.

www.surfingheritage.org

Thursday’s Surf – More wind…what a freaking shocker.

2008-05-07T18:30:00.000-07:00

Yeah it will be windy yet again on Thursday. Summer spots will be protected enough but there won’t be much in the water to ride.

NW facing breaks are going to be pretty torn up throughout the day.

Personally I think Thursday will be a good day to do something else…get caught up on chores, beat Grand Theft Auto IV, go to work…you know, the semi-important things.

If you have to surf and you don’t want to wade through the total poo of onshore wind slop that will be hitting at the open beaches, then plan on heading to the S facing spots and trying to pick off a few waist high+ longboard waves.

Wednesday’s Wind – That’s it! I am building a kite.

2008-05-06T20:40:00.001-07:00

Yeah more wind comes through on Wednesday…and a bit of NW windswell mixed with some background SW swell.

I think it will be surfable at the summer spots but with surf in the waist-chest high+ range for most of the exposed breaks. The NW facing breaks will have overhead to well overhead surf and poor conditions as the winds continue to push down the coast.

I feel like I am a broken record but your best bet will be the summer spots.

Try and stay away from the wind as best you can…well unless it is offshore at your mysto-secret-spot out in the stony forested coast somewhere…then go and live it up. Hey if you get out there make sure to say hi to my crazy hippy friend Checkabod for me…I haven’t seen that jerk in forever.

Tuesday’s Surf – Look it is more NW wind…again!

2008-05-05T20:53:00.000-07:00

Yep it is springtime…or what I like to call the “howling-NW-wind-er-time” (just rolls right off your tongue doesn’t it…I think I am going to lobby for changing the season’s name).

Anyway I am just off my meds…yeah the winds, windswell, and background SW swell will continue on Tuesday. Waves will be pretty similar to Monday with lots of sloppy overhead surf at the NW beaches while the summer SW spots drop to mostly waist high with some chest high+ sets at the standout breaks.

NW winds will blow nice and consistent throughout the day. NW flow holds 10-15 knots through the morning and then increases into the 20-25 knot range by the afternoon.

My tip for you…I know you will be surprised…is to head for the protected spots. SW facing breaks through Santa Cruz, and in other areas, will be much cleaner and surfable while the more exposed breaks take a beating with both wind and windswell. I know that spring sucks…hopefully we will be moving out of this pattern and into the “land-of-eternal-fog-ummer” soon.

S Swell Alert: UPDATE – Lots o south swell heading to Central America

2008-05-05T15:58:00.000-07:00

Hey gang I was just checking up on that incoming S swell that will be arriving this upcoming weekend and things are still looking good.

Like I mentioned in the first post (click here to read the first one) the majority of this energy is heading towards Central America and Mainland Mexico…but Baja Mexico and Southern California are going to see some playful sized waves from this one as well.

Rather than retype all of the previous alert I through it in a picture this time. (The chart is actually the NOAA wavewatchIII peak-wave period forecast showing what will be happening late on May 10th. The giant red-orange blog eating Central America is the S swell. Click on the picture to get a bigger view.

In case you want to see what I wrote about this swell last week…

Previous Posts

S Swell Alert - New S swell brewing up around Antarctica

Monday’s Surf – A few fun ones before the tequila

2008-05-04T20:15:00.001-07:00

Monday looks pretty surfable.

We will have strong mix of NW windswell and some fading SW swell holding at the summer spots.

NW facing breaks will be running in the head high to a few feet overhead range while the summer spots will have playful surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high sets mixing in at the standouts.

The winds are looking decent through the morning…mostly light out of the S around 2-5 knots…maybe a touch textured for the Santa Cruz area but cleaner as you move up toward SF (and for a few of the central coast areas as well).

Onshore winds out of the W build in around 15-25+ knots by the afternoon.

Even though winds will be cleaner at some of the NW facing spots shape will still be a bit suspect thanks to the short-period nature of the NW swell. The summer SW facing breaks and good combo spots may be a bit more workable, particularly if the winds hold off through the morning.

Waves for the Weekend – Yep it is springtime…

2008-05-02T15:54:00.001-07:00

There will be some surf this weekend but any waves with decent shape will be confined to the more protected SW facing breaks.

We will have a mix of WNW-NW energy in the form of both windswell and a touch of medium period energy clawing its way out of the Gulf of Alaska.

Most NW facing spots will have consistent overhead surf through the weekend but shape will be poor as W-NW winds stay steady around 10-20+ knots.

SW facing spots will have a peaking SW swell (200-220) moving in to mix with the more dominant WNW energy. Most of these breaks will be chest-shoulder high but the standout spots and good combo breaks will have some head high+ sets on the right parts of the tide swing.

Like I said winds will be an issue this weekend. NW winds 15-25 knots will continue to blow through most of the exposed beaches both Saturday and Sunday. Look for the lighter winds through the Santa Cruz and Central Coast areas.

Best bet will be those SW facing spots…mostly through Santa Cruz but at a few other areas as well. Every thing else is going to be pretty bumpy…

6.0 Lowers Pro Photos - Twisting the knife

2008-05-02T14:34:00.000-07:00

So I went down to the 6.0 Lowers Pro this morning and it was firing…which was to be expected because I have daddy-daycare duties today and absolutely zero chance to surf.

But since 3 year olds can go to surf contests and sit on the beach I decided to torture myself by taking photos of Lowers this morning.

Really it is almost to painful to talk about…here just look at the pictures and you will see what I mean. I took all of these photos within about 35-40 minutes of arriving at Trestles.

(if you get this post as an email you may have trouble seeing the images…make sure to go to the blog itself to see all the gory details).

Lowers version of a skatepark

Look it breaks both ways!

Sick series...seriously the guy had 3 more turns that I could have put in this series that were just as good.

Set out the back

Well at least it is not a Toll Road...

They pimped my ride...man takes me right back to gradeschool

Some of the rights were connecting down to the whitewash at Middles

It was almost impossible not to throw spray

A frustrated pack at Uppers...lots of people burning each other while yelling swear words at the contest.

Even Middles had a couple of decent ones

As you can see it was a bit hard to watch...and fortunately for my sanity the wind started to pick up so I had an excuse to go home.

But if you have some time to kill this afternoon check out the full album...I shot about 200 photos so expect to take a while to get through them.

Click on the photo icon below to go to the gallery...

6.0 Lowers Pro Photos 5.2.08

Official Forecast Update: 6.0 Lowers Pro and Oakley Pro Junior - Friday

2008-05-01T22:18:00.001-07:00

Another forecast update for the 6.0 Lowers Pro...conditions look better and there should be more swell. I may actually run down to watch for a while. But if you are stuck somewhere else make sure to check out the live stream.

Here is the link http://www.nike6lowerspro.com/

Here is the actual forecast...effective for Friday May 2.

Friday the new SW swell will start to peak and conditions will continue to improve.

The surf will be a mix of new, peaking, SW swell (200-220), fading NW windswell, and some background S-SW energy that is helping to fill in a few of the gaps.

Wave heights will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the average sets and there will be some shoulder-head high+ sets sneaking through as the tide fills in.

Conditions will continue to clean up for Friday morning. Look for mostly light and variable to light offshore winds below 5 knots through the morning. Winds will shift light onshore around lunchtime, and then will pick up out of the W-WNW around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Expect similar wave heights and conditions to hold into Saturday.

Friday's Surf - New SW swell to go with that same ol windswell

2008-05-01T21:57:00.000-07:00

Friday will be surfable at the more protected breaks. The NW facing spots will have some consistent onshore wind and lots of bump to go with it.

Swellwise we have a mix of new long-period SW swell (200-220) and some steady (but slightly smaller) NW windswell.

Most NW facing spots will see head high+ surf but with poor shape. SW facing breaks will be closer to chest-shoulder high on inconsistent sets. The best SW combo breaks will have some head high sets mixing in at times.

Winds will be out of the NW most of the day...holding 10-20 knots from SF northward and closer to 5-15 knots as you move south towards the Monterey and Central Coast areas.

Again your best bet is going to be the protected areas...there is just too much wind and bump to make the other spots really worth surfing. Stick with the summer/springtime breaks and you should be able to pick off a few fun ones.

S Swell Alert - New S swell brewing up around Antarctica

2008-05-01T14:44:00.000-07:00

So I got some good news and some bad news.

The good news is that a well positioned storm has spun up just off the coast of Antarctica. The storm has some decent wind speeds, a wide area of fetch, and is moving in a good direction. This system will be kicking out a large S-SW swell for Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico while at the same time sending some healthy, but more playful sized, surf to Baja and Southern California.

The Bad news is that the swell will hit over Mother's Day weekend. So unless your mom rips chances are you won't get to travel to score some waves on this swell.

Here are a few charts that highlight this storm and incoming swell...

There are a couple of things to note about this storm...from a positioning standpoint the core of this storm is almost out of the SoCal window...not quite but right on the edge for many of the SoCal regions...fortunately the fetch is pretty wide so edges of the swell direction will be a little "fuzzy". If it had moved a touch further eastward the swell would have been going back against the grain of the storm track and would have had a really hard time making it to SoCal.

Also this swell won't have to squeeze through the South Pacific islands which is an extra-bonus for socal. With a cleaner shot at SoCal we will actually see a bit more size and consistency from this one than we would from a more SW'erly angled swell.

So onto the swell details...

Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico
The main push of the swell is definitely aimed towards Central America...and due to the position of the storm it will last for several days after it peaks.

At this point expect the new SW swell (it has more of a 200-degree swell direction in this region) to hit late on May 8th, build fast through the morning of the 9th, and then peak in the afternoon of May 9th into the 10-11th. Look for surf running well overhead through the 9th with sets starting to hit double-overhead+ at the standout spots by the afternoon. Those waves will hold through the weekend before slowly trailing off through the first part of the next week.

(Please note that Southern Mainland Mexico is about 1/2-3/4 of a day behind on arrival times so the peak of the swell still hits on the 10-11th but shows less energy on the 9th).

Baja Sur
The S swell arrives in baja Sur late on the 9th, builds through the day on the 10th and peaks more in the afternoon of the 10th into the 11th. It will be a bit smaller through this region...so look for plenty of shoulder-head high sets at exposed breaks and overhead+ sets at the standouts along the Tip. Expect slightly smaller surf the further north you move along the Pacific side.

Southern California
SoCal will have a smaller, but still fun version of this S swell (180). This swell will arrive later on the 10th and will fill in more overnight eventually peaking exactly on Mother's Day (May 11th) and holding into the 12th. At this point we can expect chest-shoulder high surf for most of the exposed areas in SoCal. Orange County, in particular North Orange County, will have some head high+ sets at the top breaks.

Northern California
NorCal will be a bit left out from this swell...the storm is just a bit too far out of position to get a good punch of swell to the north coast. Look for waist-chest high+ S swell to hit mostly on the afternoon of the 11th and then peak into the 12th.

This one is still a long ways off so you should have time to get your Mom the gift she really needs...A family vacation to Costa Rica! (yeah...good luck with that).

Make sure to check back I will have more updates on this swell as it gets closer. As always if you get some good pictures of this swell send them my way.

Thursday’s Surf – Still some wind but with a couple of clean pockets too

2008-04-30T20:02:00.001-07:00

Thursday will be surfable, particularly at the more protected SW facing breaks. NW facing spots will have some wind issues (maybe they need therapy or something).

Surfwise well will continue to see a mix of strong, but steeply angled NW windswell, background S-SW energy, and a new long-period SW swell.

Most NW facing breaks will continue to see consistent overhead+ sloppy windswell waves. Shape will be pretty poor throughout the day…but you may be able to find a pocket or two at the protected breaks in the morning (don’t expect them to last long though).

SW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high+ range through the morning off the mix of windswell making it around the corner and the S-SW leftovers. New SW swell will fill in throughout the day and start to build in some bigger sets. Look for the top breaks to have some head high sets combo-ing up by sundown.

Winds are expected to be out of the NW around 5-15 knots through the morning, lightest around Santa Cruz and the Central Coast. All spots will have NW winds around 10-20 knots by the afternoon.

Official Forecast Update: 6.0 Lowers Pro and Oakley Pro Junior

2008-04-30T20:01:00.000-07:00

Hey guys here is a new forecast that I put together for the 6.0 Lowers Pro. This one is for Thursday...conditions look a lot better. If you can't make it down to the beach it may be sort of fun to watch on the live stream...

Here is the link http://www.nike6lowerspro.com/

Here is the actual forecast...effective for Thursday May 1.

Thursday both the surf and the conditions will turn around and start to improve.
We will have a mix of S-SW swell, local NW windswell, and a new SW swell (200-220) that will be filling in with long swell-periods and inconsistent sets.

Wave heights will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range on the average sets and there will be some shoulder high+ sets sneaking through at times...particularly as the new SW swell builds in more during the afternoon.

The winds/conditions will make the biggest improvement compared to the last couple of days. Look for mostly light and variable to light ESE winds all below 5 knots through the morning. Winds will shift light onshore around lunchtime, and then will pick up out of the W-WNW around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

We will also have sunny skies after the morning marine layer burns off...should be a pretty nice day for competition.

Shark Attack! – Ixtapa, Mainland Mexico

2008-04-29T21:03:00.001-07:00

Please don’t take this the wrong way…first and foremost my heart goes out to this surfers family and friends. I am a father, brother, and family man first and foremost so this is not me being flippant…

…but seriously you have to be f-ing kidding me!...two fatal shark attacks within a week! This is a freaking nightmare.

If you are reading this for the first time here are the details…according to news reports another surfer, Adrian Ruiz from San Francisco, died from wounds suffered during a shark attack. The attack occurred along the coast of Mainland Mexico…close to the Ixtapa area…specifically 45 minutes west at an area called Troncones beach.

Here are links to the stories if you need more details…

This is part of the story on MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24377174/

Here is the link to the story on Surfline

http://www.surfline.com/surfnews/article_bamp.cfm?id=15109

Wednesday’s winds: Holy moly it is windy batman!

2008-04-29T20:16:00.000-07:00

Springtime conditions come back full force on Wednesday.

Strong NW winds 15-25+ knots build back in on Wednesday and eventually peak in the afternoon with gusts around 30 knots.

Needless to say it is going to be pretty damn breezy. Most NW spots will have overhead sloppy windswell surf…sometimes going well overhead but always with poor shape.

The SW facing spots, mostly through Santa Cruz and the Central Coast, will have a mix of both NW windswell and some SW energy. Those areas will have cleaner, but still bumpy conditions, and surf holding in the chest-shoulder high range. A few of the better exposed standout breaks may have some bigger sets but will likely have wind issues to go along with it as well.

If you have to surf tomorrow I would stick to the more protected breaks…it will be cleaner, more manageable, and probably more fun. The more exposed breaks are going to get so bumpy you might as well write them off after the dawn patrol. Personally I would plan on busting out the big board and surfing a few waves on the inside sections, which should have enough size to have some fun longboarding…other areas will be pretty sloppy.

Official Forecast for the 6.0 Lowers Pro - Wednesday's Contest Forecast

2008-04-29T20:01:00.000-07:00

Official Forecast for the 6.0 Lowers Pro - Wednesday's Contest Forecast

So I was sitting checking out the 6.0 Lowers Pro Contest on the live stream (3:30pm) and it still looks sort of surfable down there...not clean...or even very good...but surfable in that "I would paddle out if I lived up the street from this wave" sort of way. That was more of an observation...I wasn't really going any where with that. Anyway here is the forecast update...it is focused on the conditions for Wednesday.

Forecast For Wednesday: Wednesday will be another challenging surf day...the mix of onshore winds and bumpy conditions will continue as strong gusts in the outer waters keep the coastal eddy spinning over the inner waters.

Surfwise it will be a mix of WNW windswell and leftover S-SW swell through most of the morning. Expect waist-chest high surf on most of the average waves while the standout sets see some shoulder high+ sets.

Conditions will start out a bit sloppier than Tuesday. Look for S winds around 10 knots through the morning. Those winds shift SW and increase to 10-15 knots by lunchtime and eventually top out around 15-20 knots by the afternoon.

There is one piece of good forecast news though...New long-period SW swell (200-220) starts to arrive late in the day, showing mostly on the buoys at first, and then will start to fill in more on Thursday...eventually peaking Friday and into Saturday, (right as the conditions start to improve.)

Official Forecast Update: 6.0 Lowers Pro and Oakley Pro Junior

2008-04-29T06:29:00.000-07:00

Hey Gang...I put together a forecast update for the Lowers contests that start today. I thought I would post it up on the blog so you can check it out...it isn't much different than my normal forecast but it is quite a bit more specific for the Trestles area.

I always dig watching these contests live for a few minutes (while I should be working)...so if you get some free time you should check it out.

Anyway...here is the forecast update...I will post another one later today (for tomorrow).

Surf conditions and shape start off OK (fair) in the morning but begin to fall apart around midday and continue to junk up as we move into the afternoon.

Swellwise we will have a mix of new but small S-SW swell (195-205) from the Southern Hemisphere and some steadily building NW windswell moving in from local waters.

Look for surf to hold around knee-waist high+ for most of the morning with a rare chest high set sneaking in inconsistently. Waist-chest high surf will become more consistent by the afternoon as the windswell gets going but shape will begin to deteriorate as onshore bump moves in as well.

Expect light S-SW winds, maybe even light and variable, through the dawn patrol. SW winds around 5-10 knots move in through mid-morning and then stronger W winds capping out near 10-15 knots fill in through the afternoon. Shape and conditions will likely be a struggle through the second part of the day.

Random FYI…Wednesday looks just as bad if not worse…but conditions will clean up and new swell fills in as we head to the weekend. If competitors can make it through the first rounds of competition they will have a lot of fun with the better winds and building SW swell. The finals are looking pretty fun...with the potential for head high+ surf from the new SW'er.

Here are the links to the websites to watch it live today

http://nike6lowerspro.com/

http://oakleyprojunior.com/

Tuesday's Surf - Back to the springtime conditions

2008-04-28T16:08:00.000-07:00

Tuesday will feel a lot like spring along the North-Central coasts should. There will be waves, but a lot of wind, cold water, and small waves at the protected spots.

We will have a mix of medium/short period NW energy from a storm moving into the Gulf of Alaska and a touch of background SW swell.

NW facing spots will be around chest-head high+ with mostly poor shape as onshore winds blow in out of the NW around 15-20+ knots through most of the day.
SW facing breaks and other protected areas will be smaller...mostly waist high with some inconsistent chest high sets. Conditions will be cleaner but at the cost of size and consistency.

As usual with these spring days your cleanest conditions are generally through the morning. The more exposed spots will have wind issues from the get go...but there may be a few rideable ones early.

Your best bet is going to be those rare breaks that compromise between the wind and the swell-window...but stick local...it won't really be worth hunting around for windblown waves. The protected areas will be a good back-up, particularly for the afternoon.

NorCal on Monday – Holding pattern

2008-04-27T14:12:00.001-07:00

Monday isn’t looking all that different than Sunday. A few fun waves at the top spots with a bit of inconsistency and wind issues thrown in at times.

Most spots will continue to pull in a mix of W-NW energy and some background S-SW swell. The average W facing breaks will be right around chest-shoulder high+ while the more protected areas of Santa Cruz (and other SW facing breaks) will be more in the knee-chest high range…with some occasional chest high+ sets sneaking through.

Winds will start off on the light side for the Central Coast (SF Southward) but it looks like the NW flow gets a good jump on the spots up north. Look for light and variable morning winds through the southern areas while the more exposed breaks to the north see NW winds around 10-15 knots. Afternoon winds will top out close to 20-25 knots for both areas.

You are sort of stuck with the same choice you had to make all weekend…either surf a bumpier, but bigger and more consistent spot or surf a more protected area and deal with the crowd, smaller surf, and less consistent sets. Personally I would check the in-between spots that may have a bit of protection from the wind and exposure to the swell…there may be a little window for a few fun ones, particularly through the morning dawn patrol.

Keep an eye on the forecast…more WNW swell will arrive later this week.

Weekend Surf in NorCal - New WNW swell on the way

2008-04-25T14:25:00.000-07:00

We will have a couple of days of fun surf on tap this weekend...but conditions may get a bit squirrelly for the more exposed breaks on Sunday.

Saturday we will start with more of the leftover WNW/background S-SW swell that we have been having. Most NW facing breaks will be around waist-shoulder high. S-SW facing breaks will be closer to knee high+ on most of the sets.

Saturday afternoon new WNW swell (280-300) starts to push in...hitting the more northerly breaks first and then slowly migrating down the coast. By the end of the day W facing breaks should be up to about chest-head high on sets...even the more protected spots will be up around chest-shoulder high on the best waves.

Winds on Saturday look good for the morning...mostly out of the N around 5-10 knots for most areas. By the afternoon they shift more NW around 15+ knots.

Sunday the WNW'er will peak while the SW background energy comes up just a notch or two. Wave heights at the NW facing spots will be more consistently around chest-head high with overhead sets at the best breaks. SW facing spots will be doing ok as well holding around chest-shoulder but with more consistency than Saturday.

Winds don't look as good for Sunday, particularly at the more exposed areas. Expect those NW facing beaches to have W flow around 10-15 knots through the morning and stronger gusts coming onshore by the afternoon. You will probably want to try and find a spot with some protection...personally I would probably sacrifice a little bit of the size for the better conditions on Sunday.

Another Shark Attack - Swimmer Killed off Solana Beach

2008-04-25T12:34:00.003-07:00

Seriously I am so sick of talking about sharks...but it is hard to ignore a story when someone is hurt or killed by one.

From the initial news reports a man, in his 60's, was swimming with a group of other swimmers in the ocean while they trained for a triathlon. They were a ways offshore when according to witnesses a large "grey" shark attacked the man, who eventually died from his wounds.

Here are some links to the News Stories that I found online...

Terry Rodgers' report from the San Diego UNION-TRIBUNE is probably one of the better ones...

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/northcounty/20080425-1113-bn25shark2.html

Here are a couple of others...

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/northcounty/20080425-0926-ca-sharkattack.html

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-sharkattack,1,2305377.story

Here is some video...

http://video.nbcsandiego.com/player/?id=244777

Think that this is going to become a more of a trend or is it still just another case of bad luck? Drop me some comments on the blog and tell me what you think

Another SW swell Alert: Another good shot of SW swell on the way

2008-04-24T21:45:00.000-07:00

Yep that is right…another round of SW swell is being kicked out from the Southern Hemi. It will be sending another pulse of overhead to well-overhead surf to Central America and Mainland Mexico.

Baja Sur will have a smaller but still very fun pulse of SW energy.

Southern California, on the other hand, will once again get the shaft by the South Pacific Island shadow. Sure we will get a few waves but it will be quite a bit weaker and less consistent than other areas.

I was checkout out this storm today trying to get a read on the wave heights and noticed that at first glance it had a lot of characteristics of the last Southern Hemi storm that kicked out a big SW swell. (You can see how well that swell hit Mainland Mexico, and Hawaii)

Looking closer there are some pretty big differences…here check it out

These next 2 QUIKSCAT images are from the current storm…

While this next series is from the last one…

First off you note that the new storm is not nearly as strong as the last one…it is still healthy but it doesn’t have that “eye of mordor” black hole in the core of the storm…(its core is more like an angry purple). Just because it is lacking wind speeds doesn’t mean that it will be too much smaller surfwise. It does have a few other things that the first storm didn’t.

It has a longer, more established fetch…in fact it is moving over an area that had what we call “an established sea state” which happens to be already pointed in a good general direction…so the storm doesn’t have to waste energy trying to produce the sea-state needed to generate swell…it just hops on the work another cold-front and starts kicking out waves tag-team style. The fetch is also a bit wider which only adds to the energy it will impart to the swell

Finally this storm looks like it has a better movement track…particularly for Mainland Mex and Central America…it is moving more towards those areas than slightly “against the grain” like the last system did.

What does all this mean? Well basically I think that even though the storm wasn’t as strong as the first one it did have enough other positive factors to produce a swell very close to what we saw with the last swell.

So on to the Surf…

Mainland Mexico and Central America will see this swell start to arrive on the 29th…with the peak of the swell hitting late on the 30th and then holding strong through May 1-3rd. Look for surf consistently in the head-high to well overhead range for the average exposed breaks. Standout deepwater spots, particularly those in Mainland Mexico (Like Puerto Escondido) will have sets hitting around the double-overhead range.

Baja Sur sees less of the swell but still plenty of playful waves. Look for this swell to arrive more on the 30th but peak May 1-3. As the swell peaks most spots will hold around shoulder-high+ on the sets while the standout spots see overhead sets.

Southern California and Baja Norte will see shadowing by the South Pacific Islands along with some potential wind problems as strong NW flow moves into the area the same time as the swell. Look for the swell to start showing late on the 30th, fill in slowly on May 1st and then peak May 2-3. Look for mostly waist-chest high waves for the exposed areas and some shoulder high+ waves at the standouts, which will be mostly in Northern San Diego and Southern Orange County.

Northern California will see about the same as SoCal (along with very similar timing)...lots of waist-chest high waves at the average spots while the standouts see some shoulder high sets. The reality of it is that a lot of this energy will get lost in the more dominant WNW energy that is likely to push through around the same time. But it is worth keeping an eye on it if you live around some S facing breaks.

That is about all I got for this swell…I wish it had a better swell-angle for SoCal but you can’t win them all. There are a couple of decent storms way under Australia right now…so it will be interesting to see what they do once they reach the South Pacific…I am sure I will be filling you in on them later.

Friday's Surf: More leftovers

2008-04-24T15:10:00.000-07:00

Friday will be surfable but it will be on the small side.

We will have a mix of smaller but still steady NW windswell and a couple of small pulses from the S-SW holding in the background.

The NW facing spots will be the biggest, with surf in the waist-shoulder high range coming in off the windswell. Shape won't be the greatest...winds are expected to be light early but they will be coming in out of the NW and should have bump going from the get-go.

The protected S-SW facing areas will be mostly knee-waist high as they try and squeeze a few waves out of the smaller Southern Hemi energy. Shape will be cleaner but expect a long wait between waves...and even the sets will be sort of gutless when they arrive.

I don't think it will be worth driving any sort of distance for surf tomorrow...if you happen to find a few fun waves close by jump on them...but don't waste your money, time, or gas hunting around for sketchy-quality surf.

Playful wave alert - Don't bury the North Pacific...it's not dead yet.

2008-04-24T13:47:00.000-07:00

I was about ready to put up the "closed for the season" sign for the North Pacific Storm Track but as usual Mother Nature has different plans.

Over the past 24+ hours a decent little storm spun up into a holding position NNE of Hawaii, just off the edge of the Gulf of Alaska.

Now before you get all excited...this is definitely not a big storm...it isn't even a large or strong storm...it has just enough energy to make me want to mention it in the blog.

The good news is that it will be kicking out a string of playful sized swell for Northern California and as a bonus it will send out a small pulse of WNW energy for Southern California as well.

Here is are a few pics of the system

This is the QUIKSCAT Satellite

This is the wavewatchIII wave model

And here is the FNMOC - EFS Gale Warning ensemble (which basically tells you where strong winds are forecast to develop)

Yes I know..."lots of pretty pictures...thanks for sharing...how about some surf?"

Whatever jerks...here are the forecasts for this system

Northern California will see W-WNW swell (280-300) arriving throughout the day on Saturday and eventually peaking overnight into Sunday. As the swell peaks look for W facing breaks to have surf in the waist-shoulder high+ range while the standout spots see some overhead sets mixing in at times. Winds should be only OK for this period...NW flow around 10-15 knots will keep some of the more exposed breaks fairly bumpy...but the better westerly angle of this swell means that more energy will be able to wrap into the more protected spots. Essentially we will have some decent size surf at the sheltered areas of Santa Cruz and the Central Coast along with some protection from the wind. (also worth noting that this storm is expected to jump in the Gulf over the next 48-72 hours and in the process set up a steeper NW swell for early next week).

Southern California (and Baja Norte) will see this swell arrive slowly on Sunday...then peak Sunday afternoon into Monday. It won't be big...exposed breaks will be around knee-waist high with some chest high sets...but it will help to cross up some small SW swell at the combo breaks adding a little size, more consistency, and better shape at the top spots.

Anyway like I said nothing to get super fired up about but since the NPAC is about to close up shop I thought it would be worth mentioning.

Official Surf Forecast for the 6.0 Lowers Pro

2008-04-23T21:05:00.001-07:00

Hey gang!

Since I am the official forecaster for the (Nike) 6.0 Lowers Pro this year…and I have this cool blog that lets me post all kinds of random poop…I thought I would throw out the official forecast that I sent on to the contest guys today. I normally don’t post a lot of commercialized stuff but since I am involved this year I thought it would be ok. (well that and the fact that I am still working on getting my own special contest heat where I get to surf Lowers with 3 other guys)

Anyways check out the forecast…(I did the layout too...my wife is going to let me hang it on the fridge!)

I dig the contest posters/images as well…

Here are a couple of those.

And here is the website, for some reason it is really hard to find using google…bad SEO juju…

http://www.nike6lowerspro.com/

Thursday’s Surf: The wind returns…the stupid spring wind

2008-04-23T18:06:00.001-07:00

Thursday will be surfable but really only at the more protected breaks of Santa Cruz and the Central Coast.

We will see more WNW windswell and small background SW energy. Most W facing spots will have sloppy shoulder-head high surf while the more protected areas see some small knee-waist high waves at the top spots.

Winds are expected to build in pretty fast with W facing breaks seeing NW winds 10-20 knots developing through mid-morning. Monterey Bay will have winds closer to 5-knots out of the N, which will keep the surf much cleaner.

Unless you like to surf sloppy windswell junk then your best bet is going to be the protected spots. Unfortunately there is not a lot of swell for those areas…so you basically have to decide to break out the big boards or try and muscle through the onshore winds. If you have a little nugget of protection from the wind but exposure to the windswell that would be ideal.

Random SW swell Alert: RECAP

2008-04-23T18:05:00.001-07:00

Hey gang...I got a great email yesterday from a guy that shot down to Mainland Mexico for a surgical strike on that last SW swell

Not only did the guy freaking score he also managed to shoot some sick photos and kept his head enough to take notes on the swell activity. (Always make sure to take notes people...you can reverse engineer the forecast so that you can score the same place again!)

First check out these photos

And here is the breakdown of his trip...I wish I had been there (not staring at this stupid computer).

Thursday evening – fun 90 minute session at Manzanillo Bay with sets going a foot or two OH

Friday a.m. – Boat to the Ranch (same captain we had – Ramon)… sets going 3+ feet OH and super clean…. Manageable crowd. Also surfed for 2 hours solo at “A-frames”, a spot just 5 minutes past the Ranch. 4 hour session.

Friday p.m. – Arrive at Nexpa to find the Mexican National Surf Championships in progress. Make the call to drive another 2-1/2 hours to Ticla. Surf huge sketchy reef on way up.

Saturday – Mind blowing Ticla. Clean all day. Sets going DOH. No crowd. 250+ yard rippable lefts…. Just an insane wave.

Sunday – See above with slightly smaller sets.

Monday – 5 hour session at the Ranch and A-frames. Sets still a couple feet OH.

...the lucky dog.

If you are interested in checking out the original forecast post here it is...

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2008/04/random-sw-swell-alert-south-pacific-is.html

Wednesday's Waves: More Windswell for now but something is starting to line up way out back

2008-04-22T16:19:00.000-07:00

Wednesday will be another surf day but it may be a touch sloppy at times.

Surfwise we will have mostly NW windswell (300+) and a tiny touch of leftover SW swell. Wave heights are expected to hold around waist-shoulder high+ at the exposed NW breaks. The protected areas will be much smaller, holding consistently in the knee-chest high range on the sets.

We will have a small storm moving through the area tonight that will bring some rain and scattered showers to both the north and central coasts. This front will be clearing the area by the morning and we should see weather start to dry out quickly afterward.

Winds should be light in the morning, (a lot depends on how fast the front moves out), so look for mostly light and variable onshore texture for spots from SF northward. Monterey Bay/Santa Cruz breaks will have light N-NW flow through the morning. All spots see an increase in NW flow by the afternoon.

Your best bet for surf will likely be the NW facing beach breaks...there may be a little bump to it with the onshore winds...but it should be manageable. The Santa Cruz spots will be quite a bit smaller...mostly weak longboard surf, but if you head out with that in mind you will probably have some fun there too.

Long-range it looks like the North Pacific is going to get one last gasp...the forecasts are showing a ok looking storm forming around the southern edge of the Gulf of Alaska. Here check out the wavewatchIII chart...it is showing the system in about 4 days or so.

If the storm lives up to forecasts we could see an overhead+ WNW swell, with some longer-period energy, arriving around the 28th or so. Anyway thought I would throw it out there for you to check out...make sure to check back I will have some better info as we get closer.

Tuesday’s NorCal Surf – Smaller and Cleaner

2008-04-21T15:58:00.001-07:00

We will get a chance to surf on Tuesday…even the more exposed breaks should have a slight breather from the wind.

Tuesday all of our swell takes a big step down. The NW windswell that has been driving most of our surf for the last few days backs down to about waist-chest high+ while the SW swell that has been holding in the background backs off as well.

The NW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets mixing it at the top breaks.

The protected breaks, mostly the sheltered points and reefs in Santa Cruz and Monterey, will be smaller…holding around knee-waist high…with a couple of slightly larger waves sneaking through at the combo breaks.

Winds will be light in the morning. Spots from SF northward will see light SE flow through the morning while Santa Cruz has light offshore breezes early. Winds will shift more Southward by the afternoon/evening and will start to bring in some scattered rain as a new low-pressure moves through late in the day.

If you have been jonesing to surf this would be a good day to get out and catch a few. The surf will be smaller but more manageable for all of the exposed beach breaks, which we don’t get very often during the spring. Hey if you find a decent sandbar it could be pretty fun on the right tides.

Monday’s Surf – Rinse and Repeat

2008-04-20T20:59:00.000-07:00

Monday will be a surf day for the protected areas. NW facing spots will continue to be plagued by onshore winds and sloppy surf.

In the water we will have the same mix of NW windswell and SW background swell that we had over the weekend…just a touch smaller as both swells start to trail off.

Most NW facing spots, Bay Area beach breaks and other more exposed surf-spots, will have consistent but sloppy head high to overhead surf. A few of the deepwater breaks will have some bigger sets at times as well. Shape will be poor with both stacked up windswell waves and the winds to go along with them, even in the morning.

The protected spots will be smaller…holding mostly in the chest-shoulder high range. Standout breaks in those areas will see some shoulder-head high sets on the right tides.

Winds will be out of the N-NW, 10-20 knots around the Bay Area, and closer to 5-10 (and more northerly) in the Monterey region.

Again, like the weekend, I think your best (uh I mean only) bet will be to surf the protected spots…the winds are just too strong, and the swell to sloppy, to really try and muscle through a more exposed break.

Waves (Uh I mean Wind) for the Weekend

2008-04-18T16:14:00.000-07:00

This weekend is looking mighty breezy. There will be a ton of local NW windswell in the water but a lot of wind coming right in with it.

We will have a nasty mix of NW windswell and building SW swell. Most NW facing breaks will have well-overhead surf…even nearing the double-overhead range but the shape will be total garbage thanks to onshore winds in the 15-25 knot range.

The protected areas will be smaller…mostly in the waist-shoulder high range. Standout spots that can pull in at least a little of the windswell and the SW’er will be closer to head high to overhead on the sets.

At this point it looks like the winds will back off a bit on Sunday, still in the NW 10-15+ knot range though. NW facing spots will still be very sloppy, but the more protected areas will be cleaner, more organized, and the SW swell will be peaking. Wave heights will be nominally the same as Saturday but the windswell will be dropping fast at the more exposed breaks (not that it will matter).

Really if you are going to surf this weekend…stick to protected areas like Santa Cruz and Central Coast breaks…the SW swell will be fun, even on the inside sections, and they will be able to handle the funky-chicken winds.

Friday’s Surf – Holy wind Batman!

2008-04-17T19:54:00.000-07:00

Friday is not going to be much of a surf day. It may start ok but strong W-NW winds move in fast and things get nasty by the afternoon.

New NW windswell moves in with a small (and likely overpowered) building SW swell.

The NW facing breaks will get into the overhead+ to well overhead range but will have poor windblown shape. NWS is issuing Gale Warnings for many areas tomorrow so it will be very sloppy once winds get up to speed.

The S-SW facing spots will be smaller, mostly knee-chest high with some rare bigger sets showing at the combo spots. These breaks will have fair shape in the morning but will start to get junked up by the building winds in the afternoon.

If you have to surf stick to the S-SW facing spots…you will be giving up a lot of size but conditions will be waaaaaay better. The best bet will likely be on the inside sections of those protected spots…but you will want to bring your small wave board.

Thursday’s Surf – Morning Love

2008-04-16T16:49:00.001-07:00

Thursday is looking pretty surfable (and in the playful size range) for most NorCal spots…about the only thing that could be a problem is the morning high tide (which is a 4’+ that hits around 8:30 or so).

Our surf will be fading overall on Thursday. In the water we will have a mix of still healthy but dropping WNW wind/groundswell and some smaller but slightly building SW energy.

Most breaks will hold around waist-shoulder high with a few bigger sets mixing it at the more exposed spots. Standout beach breaks will see some head high+ sets at times.

The protected areas of Santa Cruz and the Central coast will be smaller…mostly knee-waist high+ through the morning tide…but they will increase to a more consistent chest high+ as the tide drops during the afternoon.

Winds should improve overnight with light/variable to light N-NE winds setting up for the morning. Look for more onshore NW flow around 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.

Your best bet for surf will probably be those more exposed beach breaks on Thursday…particularly spots that like the windswell shape but are protected from the N-NE winds, which most spots are. You are still likely to see a lot of stacked up shape from the windswelly swell-periods but they should offer up a few dumpy corners as we move into the low tide.

Wednesday’s Surf – Cleaner but with a lot of windswell

2008-04-15T12:30:00.000-07:00

Wednesday will be a pretty good surf day at the more protected spots. The expose breaks will be a bit sloppy with both shape and increasing afternoon winds becoming a problem.

In the water we will have a mix of WNW wind/groundswell coming off that little storm that rolled over us the last couple of days. The swell periods make it look like a longer-period windswell (around 10-seconds or so) but it is actually a combo of fading longer-period WNW swell and the steeper local NW windswell. There is also a touch of S-SW swell holding in the background and occasionally crossing up the WNW energy at the combo breaks.

Wave heights will still be healthy at the NW facing beaches. The more open spots will be running about head high to overhead surf fairly consistently and some bigger sets going a few feet overhead at times. Shape is likely to be a bit lumpy thanks the stacked up nature of the swell…look for the best surf at spots that like the windswell swell-periods.

The protected spots in Santa Cruz and along the Central Coast will be smaller but much more organized. Look for waist-chest high+ surf through the morning high tide and then some shoulder-head high sets sneaking through on the low tide later in the day.

Winds look better on Wednesday. Most areas will have light N-NW winds around 10-15 knots through the morning. Central Coast (and Santa Cruz) areas will have N-NW winds around 5 knots through the morning. All areas see building NW winds 10-20+ knots by the afternoon.

I think that your best bet, again, is going to be the more protected areas. They will be a lot cleaner and even though they will be smaller than the more exposed breaks they will still have some healthy sets. The high tide in the morning is a bit problematic but if you can stall your session for a couple of hours past the dawn patrol you will see better shape and better consistency.

Tuesday’s Windy Surf

2008-04-14T12:15:00.001-07:00

Tuesday will have some more surf…but it will be pretty bumpy (basically blown out) at the more exposed breaks.

We will see that mix of WNW wind/ground swell continue to push in on Tuesday. Average areas will continue to see shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a few feet overhead at times. Conditions at these spots will likely be poor thanks to steadily increasing onshore winds.

Protected areas, like Santa Cruz and a few others along the Central Coast, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high and overhead sets mixing in. These areas will be cleaner compared to the more exposed beaches but expect a lot of bump even at the protected breaks.

There is a cold front moving through the area late tonight that will be driving the winds tomorrow. Forecasts are calling for NW winds 10-20+ knots for the morning and a steady 10-20 knots for the afternoon.

If you have to surf then you are going to want to head to the protected areas. The more open spots are going to be trashed…particularly if the winds stay strong late tonight. Also you may want to skip the dawn patrol…it will be cold, breezy, and there will a near 5’ high tide pushing through around 6am that is going to keep things pretty soft. I would give it a couple of hours to warm up and for that tide to drop before heading out.

Monday’s Surf – New NW swell mix and more NW winds

2008-04-13T21:43:00.000-07:00

Monday we will see building surf and it looks like a bunch of NW wind to go with it.

In the water we will have a mix of building WNW swell (290-310) and some increasing NW windswell along with a touch of background SW energy. Most exposed breaks will be running in the shoulder-head high+ range with sets going overhead as the windswell starts to pour it on.

Standout breaks, mostly the more exposed beach breaks around SF and further north will have sets going overhead+ at times but it looks like sloppy conditions from the get-go.

Winds start off out of the W-NW around 5-12 knots then build to about 20-25 knots by the afternoon.

With the wind picking up early and getting pretty strong by the afternoon I think that your best bet for getting waves will definitely be at the spots protected from the NW winds. Areas like many of the spots in Santa Cruz (and along the Central Coast) will be able to pick up most of the swell mix but groom out more of the wind. It will be smaller than more exposed breaks but much more rideable.

Weekend Surf – Slow start on Saturday but a fun combo on Sunday

2008-04-11T16:52:00.000-07:00

We should have some nice conditions and some fun surf over the weekend.

Saturday will start slow with mostly leftovers…a touch of local windswell, some background WNW energy, and some minor SW energy.
Average spots will be around waist-chest high...inconsistent at times, and tide sensitive, but decent for longboarding, maybe a small fish. Try and plan around the low tide bottom out. The better exposed beach breaks, mostly north of SF will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range off the steeper NW windswell…it might actually be better to check those spots on the low tide…get a few steeper sections with less water.
Sunday looks like the best day.

We will have a mix of building S-SW swell and some new WNW energy. Most spots will jump into the waist-shoulder high+ range while the standout W facing breaks, particularly the combo spots, will see some head high sets. Look for the biggest surf in the afternoon as the swells get a chance to get going a bit better and overall shape is helped by the tide push.

Winds and weather will be ok as well. Saturday should be really nice with light offshore winds through most of the day. Sunday a little cooler but still mostly light winds through the dawn patrol. Look for W winds around 10 knots through the afternoons…particularly up by the Bay Area.

Have a great weekend! But make sure to check back…there is a decent looking storm in the South Pacific that is brewing up right now…I will put together a post on it over the next day or so.

Friday’s Surf – Still a few fun lumpy ones

2008-04-10T12:35:00.000-07:00

Friday will be a decent surf day…but expect some semi-lumpy shape at the more exposed breaks thanks to the windswell.

In the water we will have a mix of WNW windswell (300+) and some very small SW swell. Most exposed breaks will be in the chest-head high range while the standout beach breaks, mostly near SF, will have some larger sets.

Santa Cruz areas will be smaller…mostly knee-chest high at the average breaks…maybe a touch larger at the top spots.

Winds and weather are looking good for the morning. Look for N-NE winds around 5-15 knots for both SF and Santa Cruz during the dawn patrol. NW winds in the 10-20 knot range build in through the afternoon.

If you are surfing tomorrow you will have to make a bit of a compromise…size for shape. The bigger beach breaks will be on the lumpy side with mostly dumpy windswell shape. The more protected spots, points and reefs, will be smaller but more organized. You just basically have to pick your poison.

Tides may be an issue as well…there is a -.5 low that hits around 9:45-10am that will drain out a lot of spots…try and plan around it if you can, either early morning or lunchtime would be good times to check it.

More shark attack stuff…(man can’t we all just get along?)

2008-04-10T11:08:00.000-07:00

So my friend over at the OCRegister emailed me this story this morning…and no it is not another HB shark attack…it actually happened out in Fiji.

Basically a local Fijian fisherman was attacked by three sharks as he was fishing near a more obscure surf spot (IE Not Tavaraua). According to the article and the photos the sharks tore up his arm pretty badly and he was in danger of bleeding out before he could get medical help.

Fortunately for the fisherman there was a surfer, Tom Rolfes, who happened to be a dentist, visiting the island with his family. The Doc sacked up, broke out his emergency kit, and managed to sew the fisherman back together enough to save his life.

I thought I would give a shout out to the Doctor and his family for pulling off some high-pressure heroics.

Here is a picture of the Dr. Rolfes in action.

And here is a link to the story…make sure to check it out (Laylan does a much better job of telling it than I can).

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/rolfes-meli-surf-2015023-timmy-island

I am just stoked that the Dr. was able to save the guy’s life, MacGyver style….and still managed to sneak a surf photo into the OCreg’s slide show. Classic.

Thursday in NorCal – A few fun spring waves

2008-04-09T13:03:00.000-07:00

Thursday looks like a decent surf day…at least in the morning at the more protected areas. (nice caveat huh…)

We will have a nice mix of NW windswell and a moderate W-WNW swell running throughout the day. There will also a very small touch of SW hanging out in the background.

Most exposed breaks…mostly the more open beach breaks will have surf holding in the shoulder-head high range with a few lumpy sets hitting the overhead mark. It will be on the sloppy side with the windswell crossing it up…it may be better to find a smaller less exposed spot.

More protected breaks like the ones through Santa Cruz will be in the waist-shoulder high range…with a few bigger sets at the standout breaks on the tide push.

Winds are expected to be N-NW around 10-15 knots at the more exposed beaches around SF and the Central Coast. Monterey Bay looks cleaner with NE winds around 5 knots in the morning. All areas see increasing onshore NW winds around 10-20 knots by the afternoon.

Surfing this weekend...lots of waves on tap

2007-11-16T09:10:00.000-08:00

We will have plenty of waves on tap over the weekend thanks to a new round of WNW swell that arrives on Saturday. This new one looks very similar to the one we just had. Lots of waves in the 6-8’ face range while standout NW breaks see some 10’+ sets. Swell periods will be in the 12-14 second range and the shape will be on the stacked-up semi-disorganized side.

Surfwise I would continue to look for the cleanest and most playful surf at spots that are a little shadowed from the main push of swell…like areas around Santa Cruz for example. I think that what you lose in wave height you will make up for in shape and rideability.

Saturday looks like it will be the best day of the weekend. Conditions start to fall apart on Sunday but it should stay fun at least through the morning. Looks like there is a chance at some rain late Sunday and into early Monday. Expect plenty of waves and what looks like cleaner conditions as we head into early next week.

Next update will be on Monday (or over the weekend if I get bored)…have a great weekend!

Surf on Friday...conditions are looking better

2007-11-15T14:29:00.000-08:00

The new WNW swell is moving in here this afternoon and will continue to hold into Friday. Look for many spots to continue to see head high to well overhead surf. Standout exposed breaks will go double-overhead on the bigger sets.

Weather looks cleaner in today’s forecast compared to what was being said yesterday so conditions are looking better than I expected. Look for N winds around 5-knots through the morning. Stronger W-NW winds 10-15 knots will develop by the afternoon.

Surfwise I think the best surf will roll through in the morning. Winds will be light, the swell will be peaking, and the tides aren’t horrible. Personally I would look for waves at spots that can filter out a bit of the swell energy…mostly this is a personal preference (I really only need waves to go a little bit overhead)…but I do think the swell will be on the raw side, so having a little bit of the noise bleed off may not be such a bad thing.

If you are looking for the biggest surf then look at the more open beachbreaks…particularly spots that have some deep offshore canyons to help focus the swell. I would probably plan on hitting those early in the morning…just because they will be more exposed to the onshore wind as it develops in the afternoon.

Surfing on Thursday - More WNW swell

2007-11-14T10:58:00.001-08:00

Just a heads up…when I refer to NorCal in this blog I am really referring to the area from Monterey up to San Francisco. Areas north of SF…if I mention them…will be referred to as the Pacific Northwest.

On to the surf…Thursday is looking pretty surfable…particularly through the morning. Our current WNW swell will actually start off playful in the morning with wave heights holding in the shoulder-head high range at most breaks. A few of the standout exposed beach breaks will have some bigger sets mixing in.

New WNW swell starts filling in around lunchtime and will continue to strengthen as we head into the evening. As this new one starts going we can expect more overhead to well overhead waves at the average breaks…and some bigger waves, nearing double-overhead at the best spots.

Conditions will be mostly clean in the morning with W winds holding around 0-5 knots…W-SW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Friday the WNW’er will hold but increasing SW winds will start to hamper conditions at many spots.

I think the best surf on Thursday will be at points/reefs that do well on the swell mix and the swell period (which is around 10-12 seconds). The more open beach breaks, while surfable, will be stacked up, disorganized, and a little textured as well. I would probably even keep an eye on the spots that clean up on southerly winds…if we see a wind switch early in the day it may be a good call.

Surfing on Wednesday

2007-11-13T10:55:00.001-08:00

The new W-WNW swell that is peaking here on Tuesday will be fading fairly quick on Wednesday. There will still be plenty of overhead surf at the exposed areas while the standouts still see some sets going 2-3’ overhead. Shape will still be sort of stacked up…kind of like windswell but on steroids.

Expect the best shape at breaks that can handle the shorter swell period…like spots that do well when a storm rolls right over top of us. Wind and weather are looking decent…N-NE winds around 5 knots are expected through the morning. W winds around 10-15 knots build in through the afternoon.

Surfing on Tuesday (New WNW swell arrives)

2007-11-12T15:43:00.000-08:00

New WNW swell peaks on Tuesday. It will come up pretty fast overnight and will be showing some fairly solid surf for the dawn patrol.

Look for most WNW facing beaches to see fairly stacked up 6-10’ faces while the standout breaks…particularly ones that seem to work better on the medium-period swells…will have some bigger sets.

Conditions are looking decent as well. Winds are supposed to start off light…even light offshore at some spots. Expect a little more WNW bump as onshore winds as increase in the afternoon.

If you like overhead surf then Tuesday will be a good surf day for you. If big waves aren’t really your cup of tea then you may want to head to a more protected spot with breaks that can filter out a lot of the energy. The smaller spots will actually be cleaner and more organized compared to the beefier and stacked up standout breaks.

Strong NW swell for next week?

2007-11-10T15:03:00.001-08:00

Things are starting to get rolling in the North Pacific. High-pressure had been doing a decent job globbing up the storm track for the last several days but now, thanks to an infusion of warm tropical moisture jumping latitudes over by Japan, it looks like the high is going to move out of the way enough to let a couple decent sized storms move into our swell window.

At this point it looks like a strong WNW swell will move into Northern and Central California on the 12th and peak in those areas on the 13-14th. Wave heights will likely be double-overhead+, maybe bigger.

Southern California would see the beginning of that swell showing late on the 13th and likely peak on the 15th. Wave heights south of Point Conception will be quite a bit smaller…more in the waist-head high range for areas exposed to the NW and probably some bigger sets at the standouts.

This storm is about 4-5 days from forming so keep checking back for updates as we get closer.

Here is the WavewatchIII animation from the US Navy…

oh man

2007-10-29T23:24:00.000-07:00

This is just the beginning...